Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands (IS INVEST 99L)

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by Saturday. Some slow development of this system is possible early
next week as it moves quickly westward across the low latitudes of
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[AnnularCane]

So much for the lull?

[abajan]

A real low rider. A bit disconcerting. Bears watching.

[Hurricaneman]

The thing I noticed is that some fo the models develop this early then open it back up and develop it again later between around the Bahamas to the western Caribbean so even if this doesn’t develop in the next 5 days it may still be big trouble down the road. Since the models seem to not be catching on to the MJO they may be too weak in the long range which is something to watch as if this stays weak it will probably end up in the western Caribbean in the next 10 to 12 days and this may end up being a player in the western Caribbean, BOC, GOM or even the EPAC

So in short it may develop short term and end up sheared apart but we may need to wait a few more days to know where this will go past 70w and what possible impacts there might be

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zFV3 GFS is showing Florida Panhandle landfall or near landfall at hr384, most likely going to change as that is in fantasy range while the Operational sends this into Central America and possibly the BOC so anything is on the table for the long range with this

[Gustywind]

A real low rider. A bit disconcerting. Bears watching.

Wow! Again another one, at such a low latitude. Very disconcerting. Let's wait and see this busy end of September. Off topic looking at the latest TWO, we have 4 suspects areas, awesome for a 20th September, should be enough or not ?

[cycloneye]

12z Euro at least tries weakly to develop it.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zCanadian shows this feature near Jamaica as a weak tropical storm, this probably will be a wave at that point but this will have to be watched by next week for the Lesser Antilles and maybe beyond that farther west

[MetroMike]

Couple days ago the SAL was looking HUGE. Now it has tempered down quite a bit and not getting westward as much.
Don't count out this system even the the MDR season is beyond peak.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave is moving off the coast of Guinea in western Africa.
Some slow but gradual development of this system is possible during
the next several days as the disturbance moves westward at 15 to 20
mph across the low latitudes of the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[TheStormExpert]

The NHC is probably being too generous giving this a 40% chance of development within the next 5 days. No reliable models develop this anymore.

[MetroMike]

The NHC is probably being too generous giving this a 40% chance of development within the next 5 days. No reliable models develop this anymore.

Don't think we can trust the reliable models at this point it seems.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 99L is up