2018 WPAC Season

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TyphoonNara
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#721 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:24 pm

Newest GFS run

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#722 Postby vortextracker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:14 am

GFS rebuilds the ridge and runs the model storm over capital hill on 00z run.

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https://imgur.com/1RkOT2g


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https://imgur.com/ZyonIw2



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https://imgur.com/CPTAw86
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#723 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:00 am

ECMWF 00z has the system but very weak signature tracking through southwest of Marianas
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#724 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:53 am

Peak

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Possible landfall

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#725 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:55 am

Moderate to fresh trades persist across the eastern region from
Chuuk to Majuro. Dry weather is trying to keep its hold on the
western locations including Chuuk and Pohnpei, but showers and
thunderstorms associated with a near-equatorial trough are creeping
in closer to Pohnpei. Showers have persisted much of the day at
Majuro and Kosrae with the trough sitting to the south. Looking
ahead, the GFS model still spins up a disturbance late in the
weekend near the date line with possible development through early
next week as it heads WNW. Will have to watch this closely as well
as how other models handle things the next few days. At the least,
the region will see a generally wetter pattern the next few days.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#726 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:16 pm

12z ECMWF is on board!!

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#727 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:57 pm

Next is invest...
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#728 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:35 pm

GFS still developing other TC's right behind it.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#729 Postby TyphoonNara » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:18 pm

GFS Peaked the system at 947mb :double:

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#730 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:51 pm

Full resolution has the peak at 941mb!
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#731 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:37 pm

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#732 Postby vortextracker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:48 pm

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#733 Postby vortextracker » Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:20 am

GFS end of run, the model thinks the storm will catch the building ridge to the west.
Runs will be interesting over the coming week.

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https://imgur.com/nTeHqNm
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#734 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:53 am

Now tagged as 99C
99C
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#735 Postby ManilaTC » Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:30 pm

Not another Christmas Typhoon darn it
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#736 Postby TyphoonNara » Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:47 pm

GFS has significantly weakened 99C.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#737 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:41 pm

GFS seeing alot of activity later this month as a KW and MJO moves through.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#738 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:12 pm

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#739 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:01 am

Seems ECMWF is also trying to develop a second storm behind 99C but let us see 99C first as 99C's development is crucial to this possible 2nd model storm.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#740 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:37 am

JTWC upgraded the system to "Medium".

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.0N 180.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 178.2E, APPROXIMATELY 680
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 100926Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DISORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SMALL POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH. 99C SITS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS), AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO
30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 99C WILL GENERALLY TRACK
WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AROUND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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