2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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cycloneye
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2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:17 am

The 2019 thread for models is here. The highlight of this year is the upgrade of FV3 test model of NCEP to operational eliminating the old GFS on January 24.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:39 pm

Delay of FV3 upgrade very possible based on the recent tests.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1081268461756661761


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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:57 pm

This is getting bad if it continues. No upgrades to models would be one of the things that would not occur.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1081671359191834624


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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#4 Postby StruThiO » Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:01 pm

Avila is not amused. :oops:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:00 pm

Hopefully the shutdown ends very soon because the models may not be fine. :cry:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:38 am

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#7 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:25 pm

140 days until the 2019 Hurricane Season begins. Glad the NW GOM was quiet last year after Harvey 2017.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#8 Postby AJC3 » Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:32 pm

Since Atlantic followers are going to be bored to tears for the next several months with absolutely nothing going on, I might as well point out the low latitude cold core baroclinic (non-tropical) cutoff low that the global op-models are forecasting to form in the central Atlantic by next weekend (25-27 JAN). The globals usually have a decent handle on these types of lows, and, assuming it forms, will give peeps something to watch for a few days as it should start off as a symmetric cold core system tooting convection around its circulation due to the cold temps aloft. All the runs are from THU 12Z,
and unless otherwise noted (JAM, NAVGEM), have a verifying time of next SAT (H216) 12Z on 26 JAN

ECM
Image

GFS
Image

FV3
Image

GEM
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JMA 12Z FRI
Image

NAVGEM 18Z THU
Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#9 Postby vortextracker » Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:The 2019 thread for models is here. The highlight of this year is the upgrade of FV3 test model of NCEP to operational eliminating the old GFS on January 24.


Kinda liked the old GFS with the tropical teasers.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#10 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:08 am

vortextracker wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The 2019 thread for models is here. The highlight of this year is the upgrade of FV3 test model of NCEP to operational eliminating the old GFS on January 24.


Kinda liked the old GFS with the tropical teasers.


FV3 did that too
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#11 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:17 pm

The ECMWF, GFS, CMC and ICON models all continue to show this system. It could acquire some subtropical characteristics, but is unlikely to gain the organization necessary for it to be classified by NHC. Will be interesting to see how it develops.
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