2019 EPAC season

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NotSparta
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#21 Postby NotSparta » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:29 am

Shell Mound wrote:If the upcoming WWB fully materialises and expedites the development of a (potentially very strong) El Niño, then I fully expect a hyperactive 2019 EPAC hurricane season to unfold, likely rivalling the most active seasons on record, in terms of overall activity and especially seasonal ACE indices. The +PMM, although considerably weaker than in recent years, is still present, and the PDO is slowly but surely shifting toward a positive state. The only factor that might hinder activity is a warmer-than-average MDR (possible +AMO) in the Atlantic. Even so, I would still anticipate a top-five season, with more long-tracking threats to Hawaii, although activity is likely to shift farther east vs. 2018.



The PMM being less +ve & the warmer MDR (as you said) would at least partially inhibit an El Niño. Esp since the 2015 event was so recent, I'd say the warmest reasonable is moderate, but a strong El Niño is possible too (even no El Niño at all! It's very early yet)
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#22 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:22 pm

In the Atlantic this Kona low might get some "could be" discussions. But in the Pacific it will be lost in the pool of many.

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1094691369854078976


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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#23 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:00 pm

Ntxw wrote:In the Atlantic this Kona low might get some "could be" discussions. But in the Pacific it will be lost in the pool of many.

https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1094691369854078976


Bruh thank god Lane didn't hit. This Kona low is hitting my structures hard today. Our north shores are on borderline evacuation status.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#24 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:18 pm

GFS (and Euro to a lesser extent) showing our first CPAC TS of the year due to the WWB that's about to begin.

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#25 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:24 pm

Looks like its hanging out just on the WPac side of the International Date Line in that run, but it's not impossible it develops on the east side.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#26 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:37 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Looks like its hanging out just on the WPac side of the International Date Line in that run, but it's not impossible it develops on the east side.


True. I still keep making the same mistake and ignoring that anything west of the IDL is the WPAC.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#27 Postby Chris90 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:12 pm

With the couple areas of interest in January, and now the possibility of an area developing on the CPAC side or crossing over to the CPAC from WPAC, in addition to the talk of El Nino possibilities for this year, this year's evolution is fascinating. I've seen early pre-season talk of the possibility of a top 5 Atlantic season, as well as talk of a top 5 Pacific season.
Out of curiosity, does anyone know what year featured the highest combined ACE for the EPAC/CPAC and the ATL? Was it last year possibly?
It would be interesting if both basins overachieved and had above average seasons this year, with both the EPAC/CPAC and the ATL achieving ACE of 200 or greater.
I should note, I'm not predicting that, it's just a "what-if" thought I had seeing some people predicting an active ATL with others predicting an active Pacific.
Right now I'm still leaning towards a more active EPAC/CPAC.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#28 Postby NotSparta » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:19 am

Chris90 wrote:With the couple areas of interest in January, and now the possibility of an area developing on the CPAC side or crossing over to the CPAC from WPAC, in addition to the talk of El Nino possibilities for this year, this year's evolution is fascinating. I've seen early pre-season talk of the possibility of a top 5 Atlantic season, as well as talk of a top 5 Pacific season.
Out of curiosity, does anyone know what year featured the highest combined ACE for the EPAC/CPAC and the ATL? Was it last year possibly?
It would be interesting if both basins overachieved and had above average seasons this year, with both the EPAC/CPAC and the ATL achieving ACE of 200 or greater.
I should note, I'm not predicting that, it's just a "what-if" thought I had seeing some people predicting an active ATL with others predicting an active Pacific.
Right now I'm still leaning towards a more active EPAC/CPAC.


Each top 5 season talk you talk about assumes two very different things. The top 5 Pacific season argument assumes that another El Niño begins, & becomes very strong, also w/ a very warm tropical Pacific. This would, in most cases, significantly quiet down the ATL.

The top 5 Atlantic season, on the other hand, assumes that the ENSO retreats from El Niño, and ends up neutral/La Niña, along w/ a cooler tropical Pacific & warmer tropical Atlantic, which would boost the season.

Chances are it'll be between the two
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#29 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:24 pm

NotSparta wrote:Each top 5 season talk you talk about assumes two very different things. The top 5 Pacific season argument assumes that another El Niño begins, & becomes very strong, also w/ a very warm tropical Pacific. This would, in most cases, significantly quiet down the ATL.

The top 5 Atlantic season, on the other hand, assumes that the ENSO retreats from El Niño, and ends up neutral/La Niña, along w/ a cooler tropical Pacific & warmer tropical Atlantic, which would boost the season.

Chances are it'll be between the two


Things may slowly change. With warming waters moving northward in the CPAC and western areas of the EPAC will create an expanded Pacific MDR. Makes years like 2018 close for both being high ACE generators despite ENSO being weak or neutral. That will definitely throw a wrench into things. ENSO may play as boost role with what is a changing background state.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#30 Postby NotSparta » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:09 pm

Ntxw wrote:
NotSparta wrote:Each top 5 season talk you talk about assumes two very different things. The top 5 Pacific season argument assumes that another El Niño begins, & becomes very strong, also w/ a very warm tropical Pacific. This would, in most cases, significantly quiet down the ATL.

The top 5 Atlantic season, on the other hand, assumes that the ENSO retreats from El Niño, and ends up neutral/La Niña, along w/ a cooler tropical Pacific & warmer tropical Atlantic, which would boost the season.

Chances are it'll be between the two


Things may slowly change. With warming waters moving northward in the CPAC and western areas of the EPAC will create an expanded Pacific MDR. Makes years like 2018 close for both being high ACE generators despite ENSO being weak or neutral. That will definitely throw a wrench into things. ENSO may play as boost role with what is a changing background state.


I agree, & lean towards another active CP/EP season (w/ +ENSO as well), but I'm not so sure about a top 5 season like some are saying
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#31 Postby Chris90 » Sun Mar 24, 2019 11:40 pm

We've got just a little more than a month and a half until the official kickoff for the season, unless a storm pops up early, and I know some of us posted numbers last year despite there not being an official poll like for the ATL, so I was wondering if anyone would like to make some guesses just for fun? No need to explain your numbers if you don't want to or if you're just making a casual guess. Or you can give us an in depth analysis on your numbers and how you think it is going to go, that's always great to read through as well.

My early guess is 22/15/8 with an ACE of 264.

I had 17/11/7 for last year, so I was too low in every category. That's why with the way El Nino seems to be developing I have higher numbers for this year, just *slightly* less than the actual numbers for last year, except for the hurricane category, where I'm slightly higher.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#32 Postby StruThiO » Mon Mar 25, 2019 12:22 am

26/18/13 ace 300
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Apr 05, 2019 7:25 pm

Honestly I'm probably my usual moderately bullish but not overly so self, at least until I get a better clue on what differs the really insane seasons (1992, 2015, 2018) from the rest. Though that did not pan out for me last season at all as I greatly underestimated the historic number of long trackers we saw. I've been pretty adamant on comparing the past few seasons to the late 80s and while given the likely double Nino, such comparison likely holds some water but 2015 and 2018 in particular have indicated we've entered in somewhat of a new normal.

Summary:
-El Nino (this is somewhat uncertain until we get past the spring barrier) and more explicitly, a 2nd year Nino
-PDO configuration strong
-vertical instability above average
-near normal wind shear
-PMM while positive is down a bit from last season
-Possibility of a true Modoki

The latter will likely shift activity westward but in this day and age, especially given the PDO configuration, I have reservations on how much it'd alter the final named storm count.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#34 Postby DioBrando » Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:13 pm

I have some ideas should the storm names get retired:

Alvin --> Antonio
Barbara --> Binky
Cosme --> Caesar/Cesar
Erick --> Emporio/Enrico
Gil --> Gyro/Guido
Ivo --> Iggy
Juliette --> Jolyne
Kiko --> Koichi
Lorena --> Lucy
Mario --> Muhammad
Octave --> Okuyasu
Raymond --> Robert/Rohan
Tico --> Tiziano
Wallis --> Will
Xina --> Xanthe
York --> Yoshikage
Zelda --> Zoraida

Thoughts?
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#35 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:35 pm

Binky? :lol:
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#36 Postby DioBrando » Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:58 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Binky? :lol:

yes, like the made in chelsea character :)

now, what about the other names I suggested?
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#37 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Apr 06, 2019 12:52 pm

Well, a lot of them are quite...interesting? 8-) I don't think they'd use Cesar though, since it's a retired Atlantic name.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#38 Postby DioBrando » Sat Apr 06, 2019 1:21 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Well, a lot of them are quite...interesting? 8-) I don't think they'd use Cesar though, since it's a retired Atlantic name.

hmmm why do you reckon they're interesting? ahahaha

damn :( caesar would have been a nice name tho :(
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#39 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:08 am

We know the season is approaching when long range GFS begins to troll us. :D

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#40 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:16 pm

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