ENSO Updates

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TheStormExpert
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10621 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 16, 2019 1:46 pm

At this point I wouldn’t rule out cool-Neutral for the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10622 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 16, 2019 2:05 pm

Newer members clustered on warm neutral. Looks like the chances for El Niño continuing thru the yr are quickly dropping, but I wouldn't rule out a return near winter

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10623 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu May 16, 2019 2:17 pm

I bet we see hurricane forecast go up when the new one come out.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10624 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 16, 2019 3:03 pm

How I see it, the tug of war/seesaw effect is continuing.

With the MJO entering the EPAC and looks like it'll be spawning TC's along with a bunch of low pressure areas, it will likely mean that the trades will be running below average for the next 10 days. Pretty good chance that upwelling will cease for the next week or so over Nino 3 and the shallower Nino 1+2.

As for the current WWB over the dateline, there looks to be an oceanic response in the WPAC, although with weaker anomalies. Per the buoys, it looks like a downwelling Kelvin wave is slowly eroding the upwelling Kelvin wave west of the dateline. We'll see how long this lasts.

So all in all, and considering the ONI, weak El Nino conditions will remain until we see a couple more rounds of trades over the dateline, and no meaningful WWB's.

And also this needs to change:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10625 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 16, 2019 4:51 pm

Kingarabian wrote:How I see it, the tug of war/seesaw effect is continuing.

With the MJO entering the EPAC and looks like it'll be spawning TC's along with a bunch of low pressure areas, it will likely mean that the trades will be running below average for the next 10 days. Pretty good chance that upwelling will cease for the next week or so over Nino 3 and the shallower Nino 1+2.

As for the current WWB over the dateline, there looks to be an oceanic response in the WPAC, although with weaker anomalies. Per the buoys, it looks like a downwelling Kelvin wave is slowly eroding the upwelling Kelvin wave west of the dateline. We'll see how long this lasts.

So all in all, and considering the ONI, weak El Nino conditions will remain until we see a couple more rounds of trades over the dateline, and no meaningful WWB's.

And also this needs to change:
https://i.imgur.com/AmEdyIp.png


Don't forget about the subsfc. Since the Niño isn't that strong, some of the cooler areas sfcing could boot us into warm neutral even w/o the atmospheric response
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10626 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 16, 2019 4:51 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10627 Postby StruThiO » Fri May 17, 2019 6:55 am

Yikes!!!

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10628 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 17, 2019 7:12 am



Yeah, it's pretty likely El Niño ends, at least for a point. Just isn't enough heat anymore, and after this WWB, next round of Niño forcing doesn't look to arrive until June.


I think the February WWB made the Niño too strong, too early, rather than a month later like in 2015, so -ve feedbacks kicked in, which began the decay of El Niño
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10629 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 17, 2019 7:22 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10630 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri May 17, 2019 7:38 am

Despite these latest events, wouldnt the ONI remain above 0.5C? I thought that was the official El Nino determining statistic?


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10631 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 17, 2019 9:48 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Despite these latest events, wouldnt the ONI remain above 0.5C? I thought that was the official El Nino determining statistic?


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Yup. Going to take more than this to kill the El Nino. The problem with using daily oscillations to determine the fate of ENSO can be problematic since there's too much noise. Because you need currently observed conditions to last around 2-3 months and then you also need the atmosphere to switch.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10632 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 17, 2019 9:51 am

NotSparta wrote:
StruThiO wrote:Yikes!!!

[url]https://i.imgur.com/B5fSLQF.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/aaQCrFk.png[url]


Yeah, it's pretty likely El Niño ends, at least for a point. Just isn't enough heat anymore, and after this WWB, next round of Niño forcing doesn't look to arrive until June.


I think the February WWB made the Niño too strong, too early, rather than a month later like in 2015, so -ve feedbacks kicked in, which began the decay of El Niño

We have the same problem again similar to March where the buoys and GODAS are showing different subsurface depictions.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10633 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri May 17, 2019 10:20 am

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
StruThiO wrote:Yikes!!!

[url]https://i.imgur.com/B5fSLQF.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/aaQCrFk.png[url]


Yeah, it's pretty likely El Niño ends, at least for a point. Just isn't enough heat anymore, and after this WWB, next round of Niño forcing doesn't look to arrive until June.


I think the February WWB made the Niño too strong, too early, rather than a month later like in 2015, so -ve feedbacks kicked in, which began the decay of El Niño

We have the same problem again similar to March where the buoys and GODAS are showing different subsurface depictions.

Neither subsurface data source looks impressive for an oncoming El Niño though. The CPC graphic now shows subsurface anomalies to be in the negatives, and the TRITON data isn't too much different.

While the ONI will likely remain in El Niño thresholds through at least AMJ, ONI is a 3-month average and does not best represent the current conditions. Unless we get a round of Niño forcing in June, it's likely we dip into warm neutral at least temporarily.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10634 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 17, 2019 11:54 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10635 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 17, 2019 12:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
StruThiO wrote:Yikes!!!

[url]https://i.imgur.com/B5fSLQF.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/aaQCrFk.png[url]


Yeah, it's pretty likely El Niño ends, at least for a point. Just isn't enough heat anymore, and after this WWB, next round of Niño forcing doesn't look to arrive until June.


I think the February WWB made the Niño too strong, too early, rather than a month later like in 2015, so -ve feedbacks kicked in, which began the decay of El Niño

We have the same problem again similar to March where the buoys and GODAS are showing different subsurface depictions.


Doesn't seem like that to me. In March they were multiple °C apart, but the current differences can be chalked up to resolution differences
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10636 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 17, 2019 12:48 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10637 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri May 17, 2019 1:55 pm


So this means El Niño is on life support
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10638 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 17, 2019 3:02 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Yeah, it's pretty likely El Niño ends, at least for a point. Just isn't enough heat anymore, and after this WWB, next round of Niño forcing doesn't look to arrive until June.


I think the February WWB made the Niño too strong, too early, rather than a month later like in 2015, so -ve feedbacks kicked in, which began the decay of El Niño

We have the same problem again similar to March where the buoys and GODAS are showing different subsurface depictions.


Doesn't seem like that to me. In March they were multiple °C apart, but the current differences can be chalked up to resolution differences

It's almost a 3.5C swing with those PENTAD/GODAS showing -2C @ the surface and the buoys showing a suppressed thermocline with +1.5C in between.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10639 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 17, 2019 3:06 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10640 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 17, 2019 3:10 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Yeah, it's pretty likely El Niño ends, at least for a point. Just isn't enough heat anymore, and after this WWB, next round of Niño forcing doesn't look to arrive until June.


I think the February WWB made the Niño too strong, too early, rather than a month later like in 2015, so -ve feedbacks kicked in, which began the decay of El Niño

We have the same problem again similar to March where the buoys and GODAS are showing different subsurface depictions.

Neither subsurface data source looks impressive for an oncoming El Niño though. The CPC graphic now shows subsurface anomalies to be in the negatives, and the TRITON data isn't too much different.

While the ONI will likely remain in El Niño thresholds through at least AMJ, ONI is a 3-month average and does not best represent the current conditions. Unless we get a round of Niño forcing in June, it's likely we dip into warm neutral at least temporarily.


Yeah I agree. Based on current conditions there's an equal possibility we will be in warm neutral for an extended time or remain in weak El Nino. Remember in 2017 we had a shallow thermocline from February 2017-June 2017 and the SST's over Nino 3.4 were hovering near +0.4C/+0.5C until the trades took over in July (or August?).
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