2019 EPAC season

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NotSparta
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#121 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z run the opposite. :roll:


The GFS is dead, long live the GFS! :lol:
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#122 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:15 am

Now the 00z Euro briefly makes that ICON system into a TD or weak TS.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#123 Postby NDG » Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:45 am

Ouch! No wonder the EPAC has been dead so far.

Image
Image
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#124 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:20 am

:uarrow: Yeah thanks to the suppressed phase of the MJO.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#125 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:54 pm

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#126 Postby NDG » Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:39 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: Yeah thanks to the suppressed phase of the MJO.


But notice that those conditions have been present since mid May when the MJO was passing through this area.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#127 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:42 pm

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: Yeah thanks to the suppressed phase of the MJO.


But notice that those conditions have been present since mid May when the MJO was passing through this area.

True. Do we have any charts from 2016 to compare?
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#128 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:Kelvin wave thread.

[url]https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1139217353684557825[url]

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1139219616935403520[url]

[url]https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1139222797081649153[url]

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1139228138372812800[url]


Although the system is rather weak, EPS members try to develop it much further west:

Image

Pretty telling on the state of the EPAC so far.

PC: Weatherbell
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#129 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:28 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: Yeah thanks to the suppressed phase of the MJO.


But notice that those conditions have been present since mid May when the MJO was passing through this area.

True. Do we have any charts from 2016 to compare?


Image

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... index.html
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#130 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:35 pm

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:
But notice that those conditions have been present since mid May when the MJO was passing through this area.

True. Do we have any charts from 2016 to compare?


https://i.imgur.com/lMAiUTX.gif

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... /inex.html

Pretty comparable to 2016 then with instability below average in June.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#131 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:42 pm

If things don’t start picking up in the next few weeks over in the East Pacific NOAA’s forecast may bust in their upper range. Maybe 15/8/4 would be still possible though. Just don’t see 22/13/8.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#132 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:56 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:If things don’t start picking up in the next few weeks over in the East Pacific NOAA’s forecast may bust in their upper range. Maybe 15/8/4 would be still possible though. Just don’t see 22/13/8.


The EPAC can turn on a dime in terms of sheer levels of activity. 1994 didn't see its first named storm until June 18. Ultimate total was 20/10/5.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#133 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:31 am

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:True. Do we have any charts from 2016 to compare?


https://i.imgur.com/lMAiUTX.gif

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... /inex.html

Pretty comparable to 2016 then with instability below average in June.


I disagree, this year instability has been much lower & a longer period than in 2016.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#134 Postby NotSparta » Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:11 am

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:

Pretty comparable to 2016 then with instability below average in June.


I disagree, this year instability has been much lower & a longer period than in 2016.



Yeah, it just went slightly below for a short period, during 2019 it's been significantly below for a long while now
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#135 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:45 am

One month of season has gone by and nothing has formed. Here is how since 1970 the early formations fared.

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1139920016709734400


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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#136 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:05 pm

Some signs of life in the EPAC at the very end of the model runs lately. Probably will see our first named storm around June 28.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#137 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:15 pm

12z ECMWF is starting to hint on day 10.

Image
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#138 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:07 pm

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:
https://i.imgur.com/lMAiUTX.gif

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... /inex.html

I disagree, this year instability has been much lower & a longer period than in 2016.


Yeah I stand corrected, wasn't reading the increments correctly. If I'm reading the chart correctly, it looks like it starts falling late May/early June and stays below normal through June 20. That being said (I'm sorry if it sounds like I'm cherry picking data here lol), I think on the annual hurricane season indicators thread it was proven that while it's a good tool to have, the instability chart can be pretty misleading in some ways.

But I still think the lack of activity is tied directly to the strong suppressive state of the MJO. So far current MJO activity is behaving pretty similar to June 2016's MJO activity:
Image
In late June and July 2016 the MJO went strong into phase 1 which supports EPAC activity and that's what kicked off the 2016 Pacific hurricane season.

So in regards to this season, the Euro is adamant in weakening the MJO while the GFS and CFS continue to show the MJO going into the Pacific. So if the Euro solution verifies we probably have to wait till July to see a real storm and of course if the NCEP models verify then we'll likely see a system before the end of June.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#139 Postby NotSparta » Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:57 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:


Yeah I stand corrected, wasn't reading the increments correctly. If I'm reading the chart correctly, it looks like it starts falling late May/early June and stays below normal through June 20. That being said (I'm sorry if it sounds like I'm cherry picking data here lol), I think on the annual hurricane season indicators thread it was proven that while it's a good tool to have, the instability chart can be pretty misleading in some ways.

But I still think the lack of activity is tied directly to the strong suppressive state of the MJO. So far current MJO activity is behaving pretty similar to June 2016's MJO activity:
https://i.imgur.com/vBVjhGJ.png
In late June and July 2016 the MJO went strong into phase 1 which supports EPAC activity and that's what kicked off the 2016 Pacific hurricane season.

So in regards to this season, the Euro is adamant in weakening the MJO while the GFS and CFS continue to show the MJO going into the Pacific. So if the Euro solution verifies we probably have to wait till July to see a real storm and of course if the NCEP models verify then we'll likely see a system before the end of June.


Yeah the chart is terrible for the Atlantic but I'm not 100% sure about the EPAC.

Also, the signal being stronger despite similar MJO is a sign that the base state is less favorable. Would make sense since it looks like activity will be weighted more west
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#140 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:09 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:


Yeah I stand corrected, wasn't reading the increments correctly. If I'm reading the chart correctly, it looks like it starts falling late May/early June and stays below normal through June 20. That being said (I'm sorry if it sounds like I'm cherry picking data here lol), I think on the annual hurricane season indicators thread it was proven that while it's a good tool to have, the instability chart can be pretty misleading in some ways.

But I still think the lack of activity is tied directly to the strong suppressive state of the MJO. So far current MJO activity is behaving pretty similar to June 2016's MJO activity:
https://i.imgur.com/vBVjhGJ.png
In late June and July 2016 the MJO went strong into phase 1 which supports EPAC activity and that's what kicked off the 2016 Pacific hurricane season.

So in regards to this season, the Euro is adamant in weakening the MJO while the GFS and CFS continue to show the MJO going into the Pacific. So if the Euro solution verifies we probably have to wait till July to see a real storm and of course if the NCEP models verify then we'll likely see a system before the end of June.


Yeah the chart is terrible for the Atlantic but I'm not 100% sure about the EPAC.

Also, the signal being stronger despite similar MJO is a sign that the base state is less favorable. Would make sense since it looks like activity will be weighted more west

The suppressed phases in June 2016 and 2019 based on RMM are pretty identical if you compare. At the time being I would say this dead state of the EPAC is due intraseasonal variability and an active MJO vs the base state.
I mean 2016 was very active with a similar +PDO and +PMM configuration AND an emerging La Nina. There's still a very good chance that 2019 will be active.
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