Tropical Wave in Yucatán Penninsula

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NDG
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#121 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:58 pm

Last edited by NDG on Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#122 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:58 pm

lets just keep modeling to see if a center forms, still longs way out, atleast it will keep us busy.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#123 Postby crownweather » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:10 pm



I think I counted five or six more members with low pressure as compared to the 06z GEFS. Interesting because the GFS trended weaker while the Euro trended a smidge stronger.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#124 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:11 pm

EURO ensembles will be out in 35 mins so we will see
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#125 Postby LarryWx » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:47 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:EURO ensembles will be out in 35 mins so we will see


They're now out and do show a little more support than the prior run although it is still just rather modest support. I see one H and it hits AL/FL border at hour 240 in addition to some TSs and TDs.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#126 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:48 pm

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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#127 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:57 pm

I know folks are tracking these phantom waves, but honestly it looks like August is on its way to a big 0 for storm activity with all the dry/sinking air around.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#128 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:39 pm

I am liking the chances of the potential system in the GOM for the late part.of next week. I agree Bob with sinking and dry air being the primary inhibitor in the MDR. However, by next week, shear should be at least marginal conducive for development and dry air should not be such an issue in the GOM next week as well.

I think we will get Chantal in the Gulf next week. I will see if I will eat my words here in a couple of weeks.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:43 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#129 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:39 pm

A little more support increase from previous 0z run.

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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#130 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:52 pm

Only one wave is in the surface charts between the Lesser Antilles and Africa and is this one.At 41W on 18z analysis.

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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#131 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:Only one wave is in the surface charts between the Lesser Antilles and Africa and is this one.At 41W on 18z analysis.

https://i.imgur.com/c2S5Gfd.gif


Thats still the same one..
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#132 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:55 pm

Model support for or against development will improve once the wave approaches the islands and starts interacting with the TUTT.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#133 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:27 pm

Looks like the 18Z GFS will disappoint with no development. But with the Euro showing something, still an area to watch for our next named system (Yucatán/Southern Gulf possibly WCAR)
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#134 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:30 pm

Well,18z did not had a cat 4 in GOM. :D
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#135 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:43 pm

I'm about to say, wake me up in September, lol.
Sad that we keep looking at off and on ghost storms past a 168 hr forecast because there is nothing else promising in the short term, dry dusty air just keeps winning :double:
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#136 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:44 pm

Gfs legacy develops into corpus
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#137 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:44 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Model support for or against development will improve once the wave approaches the islands and starts interacting with the TUTT.


The same TUTT that will most likely shred it to pieces and then the low level jet over the central Caribbean will finish it off :wink:
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#138 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:50 pm

Gfs legacy has cat 1 corpus or maybe little north
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#139 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:58 pm



No thanks. Texas needs some freaking rain. We’re torching here. Louisiana has had plenty of it!!
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#140 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:15 pm

NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Model support for or against development will improve once the wave approaches the islands and starts interacting with the TUTT.


The same TUTT that will most likely shred it to pieces and then the low level jet over the central Caribbean will finish it off :wink:



No. Your missing the point.
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