Continuing GOM Watch

[Aric Dunn]

I wouldn’t mention this system either if I were the NHC. Should be onshore tomorrow and the northerly shear looks to only increase.

Shear does not stop the definition of a tc a warm core. Doee not matter if it Going to be inland in 1 hour or 2 weeks.. it is what it is..

Sheared or not..

[Nimbus]

Probably low surface pressure in a very small area, maybe we will get some readings as it comes ashore.
Dry air is limiting intensification but there could be some local wind gusts over 30 knots along the beaches.

[Aric Dunn]

Probably low surface pressure in a very small area, maybe we will get some readings as it comes ashore.
Dry air is limiting intensification but there could be some local wind gusts over 30 knots along the beaches.

Might be waiting awhile for that... and we know its lower than 1013...

[GCANE]

Really looking good on radar.
Lots of lightning beginning to fire off.
That shot of moisture from the convective debris moving in from the west did the trick.
Being this close to shore, if a big tower fires off, it could hit the fan.

[GCANE]

Big jump in winds west of this at KVOA

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kvoa

[Monsoonjr99]

How interesting for something the models didn't indicate nor has NHC crayoned. I could definitely see the LLC in the last vis frames as westerly shear blasts the convection. I wonder if the NHC will notice this in the next TWO. If this can hold up against the shear for the next 12 hours before reaching land, perhaps it might get designated as a TD.

[Aric Dunn]

Very deep convection continues to expand... looks like center is being pulled to the east or even ese again..

This is pretty silly.

[Aric Dunn]

Doppler velocities has increased significantly. A lot of mid to upper 40 mph winds. Just above the surface.

Though in that deep convection i bet its reaching the surface.

[GCANE]

Looks like two vortical hot towers fired off.

[crownweather]

Very deep convection continues to expand... looks like center is being pulled to the east or even ese again..

This is pretty silly.

FWIW, it looks like that convection is being pulled towards the ribbon of much lower wind shear.

[Aric Dunn]

Very deep convection continues to expand... looks like center is being pulled to the east or even ese again..

This is pretty silly.

FWIW, it looks like that convection is being pulled towards the ribbon of much lower wind shear.

.
https://i.imgur.com/EqfGUEX.gif

Yeah, if you look back from this morning at the trend click back 12 hours. You will see shear dropping..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Dropping ESE? Reminds me of Emily 2017- looks like it’s trying to spin up- I might be waking up to some Squalls and bands of gusty rain and wind

[GCANE]

Looks like convection is going to start filling in west of the CoC.

[Aric Dunn]

Dropping ESE? Reminds me of Emily 2017- looks like it’s trying to spin up- I might be waking up to some Squalls and bands of gusty rain and wind

Yeah i brought this up before. Very similar setip.. just more drawn out.

[tropicwatch]

The convection on the east and south sides starting to kick it into gear. Also the winds at buoy 42039 have been sustained 20-25kts all day.

[GCANE]

This is going quick.
Feeder band apparent.
Really suprised no invest.
Wonder if they get recon in the air any time soon.

[Aric Dunn]

Nope sorry its dead. Lol nothing to see here



Yuck.. that feels weird to say..

Is that why people constantly says things like that ?


Wait i have to say something useful.


I agree with everyone. That this should be at least an invest..

But more likely its a td.. borderline ts..

[GCANE]

Bigger tower firing off now, lightning galor.

[tropicwatch]

With this kind of radar signature and it influencing shower activity pretty far to the east with them moving from south to north. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a special TWO issued.

[USTropics]

It's right on the edge of radar range so hard to tell what level it's at, but evident circulation building: