Area in the Bahamas: Is Invest 98L

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Aric Dunn
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#101 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:00 pm

18z Traps it and moves it west central gulf.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#102 Postby Nimbus » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:Something is starting to cook there.

https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/1164282515517005825


I posted about that area yesterday.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#103 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:06 pm

Surface circulation is still far away from developing, I give it a good 48-72 hours before we see an LLC from developing, in the mean time it is just a mid level vorticity and a surface trough interacting with an UL trough aiding in development of convection as an UL ridge builds over the central GOM.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#104 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:11 pm

Should see a distinct broad circ by tomorrow with a more defined circ by tomorrow evening into saturday as it reaches the straights.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#105 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:16 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Should see a distinct broad circ by tomorrow with a more defined circ by tomorrow evening into saturday as it reaches the straights.


Not impossible, but doesn't seem likely that it will form that fast.
Models don't support that.

But you never know ......
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#106 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:20 pm

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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#107 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:30 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Should see a distinct broad circ by tomorrow with a more defined circ by tomorrow evening into saturday as it reaches the straights.


Not impossible, but doesn't seem likely that it will form that fast.
Models don't support that.

But you never know ......


Didn't say it would develop. just that we should see a better defined circ..

maybe borderline by then.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#108 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:01 pm

looks like 18z NAM brings a developing low across keys into SE GOM? (i should say similar to 18z GFZ)
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#109 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:23 pm

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated with a
trough of low pressure, extends over the Southeast and Central
Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible by late
this week as it drifts west-northwestward toward the Florida
peninsula. The system is expected to move generally northward near
the southeast coast of the United States and adjacent waters by
the end of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#110 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated with a
trough of low pressure, extends over the Southeast and Central
Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible by late
this week as it drifts west-northwestward toward the Florida
peninsula. The system is expected to move generally northward near
the southeast coast of the United States and adjacent waters by
the end of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Also know as the EURO solution... lol
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#111 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:47 pm

18z Euro looks like a lot of the vorticity get trapped and hangs over south florida and some of it get pulled NE..

not surprised really. given the setup. and that the 12z was Sooooo close to getting trapped.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#112 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:08 pm

Is something trying to wrap around 25N 74W?
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#113 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:19 pm

Shear is dropping:

Image
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#114 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:19 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Is something trying to wrap around 25N 74W?


That is probably mid- level. However, that is an area to watch as we head into DMAX a bit later.

This will be gradual attaining a surface reflection. I will give it about another 24-36 hours at least to see a LLC develop in the Florida Straits.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#115 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:22 pm

latest 10m Meso analysis.

Image

850mb

Image
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#116 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:30 pm

Low-level vorticity increasing somewhat from a few hours ago:

Image
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#117 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:35 pm

:uarrow: Yes the 850 mb vort has increased significantly since the morning analysis.

Pretty good signature currently midway between Andros Island and the Northern coast of Cuba.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#118 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:40 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Yes the 850 mb vort has increased significantly since the morning analysis.

Pretty good signature currently midway between Andros Island and the Northern coast of Cuba.


The 10m wind meso analysis is also rather interesting.. If we get convection building near this area then yeah...
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#119 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:51 pm

I think this disturbance has a good chance of reaching depression status if it gets into the GOM. We have several models showing low pressure forming ranging from 1010 to 1012 mb in the GOM. I'm guessing northerly shear will keep it in check from really developing until it gets into the SW Atlantic. But it could be a heavy rain producer for the FL peninsula.
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Re: Area in the Bahamas

#120 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:00 pm

issue not shear it dry air
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