2019 WPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
aspen
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 406
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#681 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:31 pm

mrbagyo wrote:
aspen wrote:GFS is still very consistent with the potential future low-rider and has it become a TD between Thursday and Friday.


Others have backed off on the development.

Anyway, this is the only area low enough to be that low rider - could this be the one.
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/index4.gif


I’m not sure if the precursor disturbance has formed yet. The GFS has the potential low-rider developing out of a disturbance around 5-8*N and 168-165*E by 12-18z Thursday.

Even if the low-rider develops later or slower than anticipated, it should definitely be watched closely. The waters down below 15*N can easily support a <900 mbar storm according to the latest maximum potential intensity charts. In fact, the region of 0-10*N and 180-150*E can support an intensity of <880 mbar, as can a blob of high OHC east of the Philippines extending to 140*E and between 7-15* N. There’s quite a lot of room for it to go nuts if given the chance.
0 likes   
I am a meteorology enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist; take what I say lightly and look to your local weather agency (NHC, CPHC, JTWC, etc) or the pros for better information.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1306
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#682 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:22 pm

Take note before Halong proved the models wrong the GFS was aggressive in developing the model storm that eventually became 91W.

Still, we could get an invest out of this.
0 likes   
寝取られとヤンデレ最高!

aspen
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 406
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#683 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:38 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Take note before Halong proved the models wrong the GFS was aggressive in developing the model storm that eventually became 91W.

Still, we could get an invest out of this.


I guess it depends on how strong TD 26W gets. If it unexpectedly bombs out, we could very well see another Halong/91W situation.
0 likes   
I am a meteorology enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist; take what I say lightly and look to your local weather agency (NHC, CPHC, JTWC, etc) or the pros for better information.

User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1234
Age: 35
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#684 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:14 pm

GFS modeled low rider reminds me of haiyan's track a little bit

Image
1 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1204
Age: 21
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#685 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:24 am

Generally good agreement on a typhoon near Luzon 9 days out.

Image
Image
1 likes   

aspen
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 406
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#686 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 12, 2019 3:42 pm

The latest GFS and Euro runs continue to have some good agreement on the low-rider, showing a TD between 96-120 hr (Friday-Saturday) and a typhoon heading into the Philippines by 190+ hrs out.
0 likes   
I am a meteorology enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist; take what I say lightly and look to your local weather agency (NHC, CPHC, JTWC, etc) or the pros for better information.

climateconcernnew
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:19 am

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#687 Postby climateconcernnew » Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:16 pm

Let's see if this (future system) will follow the footsteps of notable Haiyan or Bopha and the like in terms of intensity here.
0 likes   
These are only my personal views or opinions. They are not verified and may cause danger. For your reference please seek official forecast.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2392
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#688 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:47 am

I can see a slight turning motion near 170°E just 2 to 3 degrees north of the Equator

Image

Image

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1204
Age: 21
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#689 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:27 am

:uarrow: Definitely from the area at 160E-170E.

Image
Image
Image
1 likes   

aspen
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 406
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#690 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:43 am

:uarrow: That seems to be the precursor to the potential low-rider.
0 likes   
I am a meteorology enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist; take what I say lightly and look to your local weather agency (NHC, CPHC, JTWC, etc) or the pros for better information.

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 488
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm
Location: Hong Kong

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#691 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:45 am

A new disturbance is forming south of Majuro in the Marshall Islands.
It is expected to move west-northwestward, generally in the direction
of Yap and Guam. The National Weather Service and the Joint Typhoon
Warning Center will be monitoring this area closely.
mrbagyo wrote:I can see a slight turning motion near 170°E just 2 to 3 degrees north of the Equator

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/20191113_172725.gif

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/wgmsvor.gif

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/WMBds68.png
0 likes   

aspen
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 406
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#692 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:13 am

Based on the latest GFS runs, the low-rider disturbance could develop into a tropical depression anytime between midday tomorrow (unlikely) and early to midday Saturday (more likely).
0 likes   
I am a meteorology enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist; take what I say lightly and look to your local weather agency (NHC, CPHC, JTWC, etc) or the pros for better information.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2392
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#693 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:00 pm

Image


Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1306
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#694 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:30 am

UKMET now detects it but where it goes depends on Kalmaegi, it continues to insist a poleward track.

Image
0 likes   
寝取られとヤンデレ最高!

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2392
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#695 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:08 pm

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

aspen
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 406
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#696 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:45 pm

Based on the latest GFS runs, the low-rider is probably going to develop into a TD between late Saturday and early Monday, and should stay in the region with a minimum possible pressure of 900 mbar or less.
0 likes   
I am a meteorology enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist; take what I say lightly and look to your local weather agency (NHC, CPHC, JTWC, etc) or the pros for better information.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2392
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#697 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:38 pm

Vorticity is slowly increasing.
It has a lot of moisture to work on

Image
Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5330
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#698 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:39 pm

The last several small systems have found some space to really intensify.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

aspen
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 406
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#699 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:54 am

The low-rider will be passing over an area whose OHC is enough to support a sub-900 mbar (or even a sub-890 mbar) system starting mid to late Sunday. The latest GFS run shows it developing into a TD within 48 hours and making landfall in the Philippines by 130+ hours.
0 likes   
I am a meteorology enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist; take what I say lightly and look to your local weather agency (NHC, CPHC, JTWC, etc) or the pros for better information.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2392
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#700 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:56 pm

Image


Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Taxman and 17 guests