2019 TCRs

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ncforecaster89
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#81 Postby ncforecaster89 » Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:
ncforecaster89 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Word from a friend at the NHC is that the Dorian report is just about done. However, the virus may delay the release until April.


Did they allude to any adjustments to the operational intensity estimate, by chance?


No, and I didn't ask.


Thanks for the update and reply.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#82 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:32 am

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Leben, was ist das?

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Re: 2019 TCRs

#83 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:52 pm

Olga's time as a TC literally doubled after that report.

Only Dorian remains.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#84 Postby ncforecaster89 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:45 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Olga's time as a TC literally doubled after that report.

Only Dorian remains.


Thanks for the heads up on Olga!

As far as Dorian is concerned:

The data can legitimately be analyzed to suggest an intensity as high as 170 kt to as low as 145 kt...although it's highly likely the actual MSW was between those two extremes.

It really comes down to the NHC's consensus on their interpretation of the SFMR measurements.  If it were my call, I'd set the estimated MSW at 155 kt; same as Irma's peak in 2017. The 700 mb FLWs (161 kt vs 164 kt) and minimum central pressures (910 mb vs 914 mb) were almost identical.  Dorian's SFMR readings exceeded that of Irma's, while the satellite estimates were much higher with Irma.

In the end, I anticipate the NHC will either retain the operational 160 kt estimate or reduce it slightly to 155 kt.  

Curious as to others thoughts on whether the NHC modifies the operational peak intensity in the forthcoming TCR?
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#85 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:05 pm

ncforecaster89 wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Olga's time as a TC literally doubled after that report.

Only Dorian remains.


Thanks for the heads up on Olga!

As far as Dorian is concerned:

The data can legitimately be analyzed to suggest an intensity as high as 170 kt to as low as 145 kt...although it's highly likely the actual MSW was between those two extremes.

It really comes down to the NHC's consensus on their interpretation of the SFMR measurements.  If it were my call, I'd set the estimated MSW at 155 kt; same as Irma's peak in 2017. The 700 mb FLWs (161 kt vs 164 kt) and minimum central pressures (910 mb vs 914 mb) were almost identical.  Dorian's SFMR readings exceeded that of Irma's, while the satellite estimates were much higher with Irma.

In the end, I anticipate the NHC will either retain the operational 160 kt estimate or reduce it slightly to 155 kt.  

Curious as to others thoughts on whether the NHC modifies the operational peak intensity in the forthcoming TCR?


I agree with you - it should either be kept at 160 kt as operational or dropped to 155 kt as a blend of all the data.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#86 Postby Chris90 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:11 pm

ncforecaster89 wrote:
As far as Dorian is concerned:

The data can legitimately be analyzed to suggest an intensity as high as 170 kt to as low as 145 kt...although it's highly likely the actual MSW was between those two extremes.


Curious as to others thoughts on whether the NHC modifies the operational peak intensity in the forthcoming TCR?


I'm putting my bets on retaining 160kts as peak and landfall. It was a historic landfall, matching the '35 Labor Day Hurricane, and if they had sufficient evidence to downgrade it, I think they would, but I don't think they do.
If you compare Irma and Dorian purely on flight level, it would make sense for them to nudge Dorian's intensity down to 150-155kts based on what they did with Irma, but Dorian has Irma beat by far in regards to SFMR and eyewall dropsondes.

1. Irma produced 2 SFMR readings at 160kts. That's it. All the rest were lower. I'm going off memory for this, I believe my full post is in the "Intense Tropical Cyclones" thread, but if memory serves correctly, Dorian produced 21 SFMR readings to support 170kts, 9 of them were flagged, 12 were unflagged. That's a lot more than Irma.

2. Dorian's eyewall dropsondes consistently showed stronger winds in the lower half of the storm as opposed to closer to the 700mb flight level, the dropsondes frequently suggested surface winds that would exceed the 700mb winds in my opinion. I believe the one dropsonde set a dropsonde record (for the Atlantic anyway) measuring 176kts at the surface (giving a bit more credibility to those SFMR readings, even if it is an instantaneous wind), and I think it was that same dropsonde that showed the strongest winds were confined to something like the lowest 30mb of the eyewall. I don't know a huge ton about eyewall dynamics as I'm not an expert nor am I studying meteorology as a student, but I have a theory that the top of the boundary layer may have been lower than what is typical, and that inflated the surface winds somewhat, just based off what the eyewall drops kept showing.

I know the NHC likes to blend with flight level and doesn't fully trust the SFMR, but I think 161kts flight level combined with a multitude of SFMR readings supporting 170kts will be enough for them to assume a 1:1 ratio between flight level and surface is logical and they'll keep the peak intensity at 160kts. I even think there's an outside chance at 165kts, but very unlikely.

What I'm actually most curious about is if they make him a Cat 5 sooner than they did operationally. I'm of the opinion (and many others were at the time too), that there was sufficient evidence to upgrade Dorian on the 31st. I think they've got data to support walking back the time he officially intensified to Cat 5, it's just a matter of waiting for their report to see if they do it. I'm split 50/50 on this. I can see them doing it, but I can also see them doubling down on their operational reasoning and keeping his initial Cat 5 point the same.
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Re: 2019 TCRs

#87 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:18 pm

I am going out on a limb and say the Dorian report will be released this week.
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