Area to watch off U.S Coast (Is Invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

Brief window.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of disturbed weather is centered a few hundred miles off the
southeast U.S. coast. This disturbance is forecast to move
northeastward and a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to
form over the weekend. Significant development is not expected,
however the system could briefly acquire some subtropical
characteristics when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Sunday.
Further development is not anticipated once the low moves over
cooler waters early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[aspen]

The GFS used to show a STC forming from this, but it’s been less enthusiastic with the disturbance in recent runs.

[CyclonicFury]

We tend to see systems like this most commonly during July of El Niño years, not June during La Niña/neutral ENSO years.

[Extratropical94]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad, non-tropical low pressure system has formed a few hundred
miles east of the coast of North Carolina. Although cloudiness and
shower activity are currently disorganized, the system could still
briefly acquire some subtropical characteristics tonight and early
Monday while the low moves northeastward over the warm waters of
the Gulfstream. By Monday night and Tuesday, however, the system
is expected to weaken when it moves back over the cooler waters of
the North Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart