2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1241 Postby USTropics » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:37 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
USTropics wrote:
aspen wrote:How do +/-IODs impact Atlantic hurricane season activity? In this situation, would a +IOD help or hamper MDR activity?


There is some debate over the connection between IOD and ENSO, but essentially the +/- mode of the IOD can hinder or propel atmospheric changes during ENSO transitions. For instance, a + IOD increases Pacific trade winds, promotes La Nina, and strengthens the Walker circulation. A - IOD creates weaker trade winds, promotes El Nino, and weakens the Walker circulation. So basically the chain is:

positive IOD --> cooling ENSO (La Nina) --> enhanced Walker circulation --> more active Atlantic
negative IOD --> warming ENSO (El Nino) --> weakened Walker circulation --> less active Atlantic

I thought it was the other way around, doesn't a -IOD favor upward motion over the Maritime Continent, which is more La Niña like, while a +IOD favors sinking over this region?


Eventually it does, but there's essentially a cycle it must complete:
Image

Compare circulations here as well:
Image

Image
Image

Again want to iterate the beginning of my post, there is some debate over the connection between IOD and ENSO. Research on the IOD is still in its infancy so to speak (discovered about ~25 years ago). Its true connection is still unknown, but this research article (https://commons.lib.niu.edu/bitstream/1 ... _12302.pdf) does a good job of describing the different teleconnections.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1242 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:44 pm

The general idea is that a -IOD is associated with La Nina and vice versa. A missing -IOD this season wil re-enforce the idea of a weaker -ENSO event while reducing the probabilities for a robust La Nina by ASO.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1243 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:01 pm




Seems a little ironic that the waves being so healthy and robust can produce something so detrimental to them.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1244 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:47 pm

Interesting, so this could kill or lessen the chances of a hyperactive season. Could be some good news for once this year!
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1245 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:50 pm

AnnularCane wrote:



Seems a little ironic that the waves being so healthy and robust can produce something so detrimental to them.


That is the boomerang effect.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1246 Postby Hammy » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:00 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Interesting, so this could kill or lessen the chances of a hyperactive season. Could be some good news for once this year!


I personally doubt it but we'll likely see a lull or late start as we've seen the last few years. 2010 featured a large amount of dust for example and waves coming off fairly far to the north and the season didn't really take off until August 20; 2018 being another example (remember how dead August was)
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1247 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Interesting, so this could kill or lessen the chances of a hyperactive season. Could be some good news for once this year!

What?
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1248 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:25 pm

July CANSIPS is out. :double:

Image
Image
Image
Image

YIKES. Below normal shear in the deep tropics with a VP pattern similar to hyperactive seasons. Above-normal precipitation in the MDR and Caribbean as well. Unlike recent CFS runs, it does not show a strong TUTT at peak. SAL will likely limit MDR development for the next 4-6 weeks (though I wouldn't rule out 1-2 MDR systems during this time), but after that, we'll likely have a very busy peak. This looks MUCH more favorable than the 2018 and 2019 CanSIPS runs at this time. Don't let your guard down based on CDAS showing a cooling MDR after a SAL outbreak!
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1249 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:30 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:July CANSIPS is out. :double:

https://i.imgur.com/y1LLuzC.png
https://i.imgur.com/hcgGykn.png
https://i.imgur.com/FLeMqXD.png
https://i.imgur.com/TaPQEcD.png

YIKES. Below normal shear in the deep tropics with a VP pattern similar to hyperactive seasons. Above-normal precipitation in the MDR and Caribbean as well. Unlike recent CFS runs, it does not show a strong TUTT at peak. SAL will likely limit MDR development for the next 4-6 weeks (though I wouldn't rule out 1-2 MDR systems during this time), but after that, we'll likely have a very busy peak. This looks MUCH more favorable than the 2018 and 2019 CanSIPS runs at this time. Don't let your guard down based on CDAS showing a cooling MDR after a SAL outbreak!

If those predictions were to hold up, I would expect some absolutely insane MDR/Caribbean activity starting in mid-August, possibly a mix of 2010 and 2017. Also probably at least one big Caribbean Cruiser like Dean, Felix, or Allen, since the Caribbean is (for once) not looking like a meat grinder.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1250 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:16 am

Kingarabian wrote:The general idea is that a -IOD is associated with La Nina and vice versa. A missing -IOD this season wil re-enforce the idea of a weaker -ENSO event while reducing the probabilities for a robust La Nina by ASO.

According to ESRL’s NCEP/NCAR correlations for ASO, stronger negative (positive) SST anomalies in NINO 3 correlate with increased (decreased) precipitation/TC risk over Mid-Atlantic and New England, along with decreased (increased) precipitation/TC risk over GA and parts of SC. Neutral ENSO, especially cool neutral ENSO, tends to promote the greatest landfall risk over the widest possible area, ranging from SE TX to SE GA.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1251 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:52 am

CyclonicFury wrote:July CANSIPS is out. :double:

https://i.imgur.com/y1LLuzC.png
https://i.imgur.com/hcgGykn.png
https://i.imgur.com/FLeMqXD.png
https://i.imgur.com/TaPQEcD.png

YIKES. Below normal shear in the deep tropics with a VP pattern similar to hyperactive seasons. Above-normal precipitation in the MDR and Caribbean as well. Unlike recent CFS runs, it does not show a strong TUTT at peak. SAL will likely limit MDR development for the next 4-6 weeks (though I wouldn't rule out 1-2 MDR systems during this time), but after that, we'll likely have a very busy peak. This looks MUCH more favorable than the 2018 and 2019 CanSIPS runs at this time. Don't let your guard down based on CDAS showing a cooling MDR after a SAL outbreak!


That’s as favorable as you will see it for the Atlantic. :eek:
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1252 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:01 am

Hammy wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Interesting, so this could kill or lessen the chances of a hyperactive season. Could be some good news for once this year!


I personally doubt it but we'll likely see a lull or late start as we've seen the last few years. 2010 featured a large amount of dust for example and waves coming off fairly far to the north and the season didn't really take off until August 20; 2018 being another example (remember how dead August was)


2017 also had a relatively slow July with lots of shear across the Caribbean. The couple of weak systems that formed over the MDR in July struggled with SAL and dissipated before reaching the Windward Islands. The season didn't really started until the second to third week of August.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1253 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:25 am

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1254 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:32 am


The only thing left on the table that could affect the Atlantic is SAL and that’s going to relax soon.
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2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1255 Postby toad strangler » Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:44 am

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1256 Postby Kazmit » Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:49 am


If it wasn't for SAL I can't imagine how active July (and early August) would be, not just this year but most years. :roll:
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1257 Postby aspen » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:35 am

AutoPenalti wrote:

The only thing left on the table that could affect the Atlantic is SAL and that’s going to relax soon.

Wasn’t there something about a sinking branch during mid-July that was posted here? Or did I misread something?
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1258 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:47 am

aspen wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:

The only thing left on the table that could affect the Atlantic is SAL and that’s going to relax soon.

Wasn’t there something about a sinking branch during mid-July that was posted here? Or did I misread something?

Sinking branch over the Atlantic sounds like a Euro run at some point.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1259 Postby StruThiO » Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:21 am

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#1260 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:37 am



Classic busy season warm amo look.
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