2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Is comming.

https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1294283628751486978

Yep. Buckle up folks, this is gonna be a bumpy ride, methinks...

https://i.ibb.co/jRNr0yQ/eps-chi200-anomaly-hov-equatorial-2020081300-e31.png

Why that one member?

I'm sorry, I meant to post the mean. Fixed.

[ThetaE]

SAL is looking spottier now than it has in the last few weeks. Josephine has done a number on it in the central Atlantic, but what's really impressive is the lack of dust all the way up to 25 N just off of Africa.

Check out the five-day loop (time-sensitive): http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... split.html

[EquusStorm]

That's definitely a significant decrease in both extent and intensity of dust from beginning to end. Starting to look more and more like the dust pattern in mid-August 2017, which was pretty significant but on the decline. Just as it should be from climo perspective. Could have a couple more outbreaks but as soon as the MJO heads that way convection will probably clear it out pretty fast from the first few big waves that roll through it.

[aspen]

Let’s say that 96L becomes Kyle (which seems quite likely), the rest of August sees 3/2/1, and September sees 7/5/3. This is under the assumption that a period of significant Cape Verde/MDR/AEW activity will begin in the last week and half of August and continue through most of September, where we’ll finally get a balance of quality and quantity with the upcoming storms. By the end of September, that’ll put 2020 at 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 majors.

I think there’s a decent chance 2020 could hit 18-21 named storms after the next six weeks is up.

[AxaltaRacing24]

That's definitely a significant decrease in both extent and intensity of dust from beginning to end. Starting to look more and more like the dust pattern in mid-August 2017, which was pretty significant but on the decline. Just as it should be from climo perspective. Could have a couple more outbreaks but as soon as the MJO heads that way convection will probably clear it out pretty fast from the first few big waves that roll through it.

it's actually less. meteosat was used instead of goes-16 back then, and this is what it looked like.


now, compare that image above to the current meteosat image.

[SFLcane]

Thought i'd drop this here from Crownweather services.

osted On Friday 8/14/2020 - *** A VERY ACTIVE TO HYPERACTIVE PERIOD OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT AUGUST 20-25 TO ABOUT SEPTEMBER 20-25 ***

It still looks very likely that we will see a very active to even hyperactive period of tropical storm/hurricane activity beginning around the August 20 to 25 time frame and continuing until at least September 20 to 25.A strong upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to push into the Atlantic Basin as soon as next week and remain in a favorable phase for the Atlantic Basin through much of September. I have been forecasting tropical storms and hurricanes for over 25 years and I cannot remember such strong MJO signals during the peak of the hurricane season (This is potentially REALLY, REALLY bad). The next 6 to 8 weeks has the very real potential to be very severe and record breaking. The combination of a very strong upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, extremely warm ocean water temperatures, the forecast of lower than average wind shear, above average rainfall & strong tropical wave activity over Africa spells huge trouble.
In addition, I’m still looking at the potential for a very troublesome weather pattern for Caribbean and U.S. landfalls. An upper level high pressure system still looks like it will set up from near Hudson Bay, Canada through the Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada starting later this month & continuing through September. This weather pattern configuration is dangerous because it will block any tropical systems from turning to the north & instead will guide them westward towards the Caribbean and the United States.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT the switch IS going to be turned on in terms of tropical development beginning around August 20 to 25 & that switch will likely remain on through at least September 20. This means that not only will it likely be extremely busy in terms of tracking/forecasting multiple storms at once, but the upper level weather pattern could be downright dangerous in terms of threats to the Caribbean, Bahamas and the United States.

[StruThiO]

This is as succinctly as it can be said, and straight from a Senior Hurricane Specialist at NHC too

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1294391298712010764

[toad strangler]

This is as succinctly as it can be said, and straight from a Senior Hurricane Specialist at NHC too

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1294391298712010764

[toad strangler]

Thought i'd drop this here from Crownweather services.

osted On Friday 8/14/2020 - *** A VERY ACTIVE TO HYPERACTIVE PERIOD OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT AUGUST 20-25 TO ABOUT SEPTEMBER 20-25 ***

It still looks very likely that we will see a very active to even hyperactive period of tropical storm/hurricane activity beginning around the August 20 to 25 time frame and continuing until at least September 20 to 25.A strong upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to push into the Atlantic Basin as soon as next week and remain in a favorable phase for the Atlantic Basin through much of September. I have been forecasting tropical storms and hurricanes for over 25 years and I cannot remember such strong MJO signals during the peak of the hurricane season (This is potentially REALLY, REALLY bad). The next 6 to 8 weeks has the very real potential to be very severe and record breaking. The combination of a very strong upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, extremely warm ocean water temperatures, the forecast of lower than average wind shear, above average rainfall & strong tropical wave activity over Africa spells huge trouble.
In addition, I’m still looking at the potential for a very troublesome weather pattern for Caribbean and U.S. landfalls. An upper level high pressure system still looks like it will set up from near Hudson Bay, Canada through the Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada starting later this month & continuing through September. This weather pattern configuration is dangerous because it will block any tropical systems from turning to the north & instead will guide them westward towards the Caribbean and the United States.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT the switch IS going to be turned on in terms of tropical development beginning around August 20 to 25 & that switch will likely remain on through at least September 20. This means that not only will it likely be extremely busy in terms of tracking/forecasting multiple storms at once, but the upper level weather pattern could be downright dangerous in terms of threats to the Caribbean, Bahamas and the United States.

https://i.imgur.com/zMx6TzI.jpg

[SFLcane]

This is as succinctly as it can be said, and straight from a Senior Hurricane Specialist at NHC too

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1294391298712010764

Coming from Eric.. Look out folks! Nothing else needs to be said only a matter of time now.

[toad strangler]

This is as succinctly as it can be said, and straight from a Senior Hurricane Specialist at NHC too

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1294391298712010764

Coming from Eric.. Look out folks! Nothing else needs to be said only a matter of time now.

Blake used your phrase BUCKLE UP!

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1294391854570577920

[SFLcane]

This is as succinctly as it can be said, and straight from a Senior Hurricane Specialist at NHC too

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1294391298712010764

Coming from Eric.. Look out folks! Nothing else needs to be said only a matter of time now.

Blake used your phrase BUCKLE UP!

Lol yep so you know its about to get serious.

[St0rmTh0r]

Thought i'd drop this here from Crownweather services.

osted On Friday 8/14/2020 - *** A VERY ACTIVE TO HYPERACTIVE PERIOD OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT AUGUST 20-25 TO ABOUT SEPTEMBER 20-25 ***

It still looks very likely that we will see a very active to even hyperactive period of tropical storm/hurricane activity beginning around the August 20 to 25 time frame and continuing until at least September 20 to 25.A strong upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to push into the Atlantic Basin as soon as next week and remain in a favorable phase for the Atlantic Basin through much of September. I have been forecasting tropical storms and hurricanes for over 25 years and I cannot remember such strong MJO signals during the peak of the hurricane season (This is potentially REALLY, REALLY bad). The next 6 to 8 weeks has the very real potential to be very severe and record breaking. The combination of a very strong upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, extremely warm ocean water temperatures, the forecast of lower than average wind shear, above average rainfall & strong tropical wave activity over Africa spells huge trouble.
In addition, I’m still looking at the potential for a very troublesome weather pattern for Caribbean and U.S. landfalls. An upper level high pressure system still looks like it will set up from near Hudson Bay, Canada through the Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada starting later this month & continuing through September. This weather pattern configuration is dangerous because it will block any tropical systems from turning to the north & instead will guide them westward towards the Caribbean and the United States.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT the switch IS going to be turned on in terms of tropical development beginning around August 20 to 25 & that switch will likely remain on through at least September 20. This means that not only will it likely be extremely busy in terms of tracking/forecasting multiple storms at once, but the upper level weather pattern could be downright dangerous in terms of threats to the Caribbean, Bahamas and the United States.

https://i.imgur.com/zMx6TzI.jpg

Sounds like a worse case scenario for hurricane strikes! 2020 here we go again!

[Monsoonjr99]

It just seems every single indicator this year so far has been pointing towards an ugly season and it just keeps getting uglier...

[Kazmit]

It just seems every single indicator this year so far has been pointing towards an ugly season and it just keeps getting uglier...

Only thing to do now is wait and see what happens.

[MetroMike]

It just seems every single indicator this year so far has been pointing towards an ugly season and it just keeps getting uglier...

Only thing to do now is wait and see what happens.

We shall see if the favorable MJO wave actually makes it into the Atl. Basin or becomes a suppressed Kelvin wave.

[toad strangler]

It's seemingly a battle between pro mets and amatuer weenies (most of us). There isn't much chatter out there from the proven side about a bust or a plate of weak sauce. That's all heavily sided to the amatuer. Interesting days and weeks ahead.

[Hurricaneman]

Here’s how I see it for the most part

Amateurs tend to hug the models more which leads to lead towards the bearish side

Pro Mets tend to use the meteorological side of things and look more at real time data and what the indices are doing which leads more toward fact

The fact that pro Mets are saying buckle up especially the experts at the NHC and crownweather tells me the people on the bearish side aren’t looking at all the data and just what models tell them

Also it means starting next week things could start to get ugly from the 25th of this month until October which is a scary thought And there could be multiple landfalls of strong hurricanes on the US coast

[Hammy]

Here’s how I see it for the most part

Amateurs tend to hug the models more which leads to lead towards the bearish side

Pro Mets tend to use the meteorological side of things and look more at real time data and what the indices are doing which leads more toward fact

The fact that pro Mets are saying buckle up especially the experts at the NHC and crownweather tells me the people on the bearish side aren’t looking at all the data and just what models tell them

Also it means starting next week things could start to get ugly from the 25th of this month until October which is a scary thought And there could be multiple landfalls of strong hurricanes on the US coast

This is why I posted the CFS from time to time, it actually gives a good idea of the general activity even if you can't use it to say this storm will occur on this day, and this is pretty on par with what it's been showing. It never at any point showed a very active August, but likewise has been consistently showing quite a bit of activity (and trending busier) starting between the last week of August and the first week of September and shows a lot of back to back storms developing and long trackers lasting into early October after that point.