Steve wrote:Earlier this morning we had 3 simultaneous Cat 2’s. Quantity over quality my ass.
It looks like we’re getting quantity and
quality now. Paulette and Sally both peaked at 90 kt, Teddy will likely become a major hurricane as early as this afternoon, and I’d say 98L and 90L have fair shots of becoming hurricanes later on in their lives. 90L is of particular concern because it could meander around for some time like Sally, and it’ll be in even warmer waters.
We are aspen. In my opinion, some posters ought not always be in a rush to over-promote some thought or idea they might have on a given season. It's certainly acceptable to question aspects of a season - and way better to question than declare - but we have learned once again that we should be waiting until at least the middle of September before trying to put a stamp on a given season. We're there now so at a point where there are still plenty of unknowns but we also have some pretty good ideas. Here are mine so far:
1) 2020 is historic in many different ways so far.
2) We're in the high percentiles for US landfalls and number of storms (record there to this point).
3) MDR isn't that much of a development region this season.
4) There has been a propensity for landfalling storms to get stronger as they are coming in.
5) We have at least a month to go meaning we'll possibly be in the Greek Alphabet by next week (and 2 1/2 months left in the season overall).
6) The biggest fear - 1933 and 2005 (both analogs in many professional season forecasts) are turning out to be analogs in their own ways.
Scary. But if we really knew all this heading to June, I guess we wouldn't have had a thread with 155 pages.