2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

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toad strangler
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3081 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:35 am

Loveweather12 wrote:He’s right, FL has to watch too. No time say FL is out of woods. Seasons not over.

toad strangler wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:I just have a bad, nasty feeling in my gut that its Florida's turn come October. No science to back me up but I just have that feeling. Its 2020


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Watch another October biggy hit the N Gulf again. THAT would be 2020ish. Let's hope not. But the N Gulf seems like the bullseye.


FL is on the N Gulf too and I never said anything remotely close to FL being out of the woods. Good Lord.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3082 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:13 am

Earlier this morning we had 3 simultaneous Cat 2’s. Quantity over quality my ass.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3083 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:35 am

Steve wrote:Earlier this morning we had 3 simultaneous Cat 2’s. Quantity over quality my ass.


This
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3084 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:35 am

-
Last edited by SFLcane on Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:58 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3085 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:41 am

Steve wrote:Earlier this morning we had 3 simultaneous Cat 2’s. Quantity over quality my ass.

It looks like we’re getting quantity and quality now. Paulette and Sally both peaked at 90 kt, Teddy will likely become a major hurricane as early as this afternoon, and I’d say 98L and 90L have fair shots of becoming hurricanes later on in their lives. 90L is of particular concern because it could meander around for some time like Sally, and it’ll be in even warmer waters.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3086 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:44 am

aspen wrote:
Steve wrote:Earlier this morning we had 3 simultaneous Cat 2’s. Quantity over quality my ass.

It looks like we’re getting quantity and quality now. Paulette and Sally both peaked at 90 kt, Teddy will likely become a major hurricane as early as this afternoon, and I’d say 98L and 90L have fair shots of becoming hurricanes later on in their lives. 90L is of particular concern because it could meander around for some time like Sally, and it’ll be in even warmer waters.


We are aspen. In my opinion, some posters ought not always be in a rush to over-promote some thought or idea they might have on a given season. It's certainly acceptable to question aspects of a season - and way better to question than declare - but we have learned once again that we should be waiting until at least the middle of September before trying to put a stamp on a given season. We're there now so at a point where there are still plenty of unknowns but we also have some pretty good ideas. Here are mine so far:

1) 2020 is historic in many different ways so far.
2) We're in the high percentiles for US landfalls and number of storms (record there to this point).
3) MDR isn't that much of a development region this season.
4) There has been a propensity for landfalling storms to get stronger as they are coming in.
5) We have at least a month to go meaning we'll possibly be in the Greek Alphabet by next week (and 2 1/2 months left in the season overall).
6) The biggest fear - 1933 and 2005 (both analogs in many professional season forecasts) are turning out to be analogs in their own ways.

Scary. But if we really knew all this heading to June, I guess we wouldn't have had a thread with 155 pages.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3087 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:03 am

The northern Caribbean (especially the NW) is locked and loaded for something to bomb out, and that's putting it very lightly. Any slow-moving storm there could easily blow up into a Cat 4/5 due to the insanely high OHC.
Image
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3088 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:17 am

aspen wrote:The northern Caribbean (especially the NW) is locked and loaded for something to bomb out, and that's putting it very lightly. Any slow-moving storm there could easily blow up into a Cat 4/5 due to the insanely high OHC.
https://i.imgur.com/BCHMLQx.png

We've been saying this since 2007
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3089 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:30 am

BYG Jacob wrote:
aspen wrote:The northern Caribbean (especially the NW) is locked and loaded for something to bomb out, and that's putting it very lightly. Any slow-moving storm there could easily blow up into a Cat 4/5 due to the insanely high OHC.
https://i.imgur.com/BCHMLQx.png

We've been saying this since 2007


This year has La Nina going for it but still, agree, the Caribbean doesn't just spit out storms.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3090 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:31 am

toad strangler wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
aspen wrote:The northern Caribbean (especially the NW) is locked and loaded for something to bomb out, and that's putting it very lightly. Any slow-moving storm there could easily blow up into a Cat 4/5 due to the insanely high OHC.
https://i.imgur.com/BCHMLQx.png

We've been saying this since 2007


This year has La Nina going for it but still, agree, the Caribbean doesn't just spit out storms.

Yup, I imagine we'll get something in October because the Caribbean is favorable this year. Just a matter of when
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3091 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:57 am

toad strangler wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
aspen wrote:The northern Caribbean (especially the NW) is locked and loaded for something to bomb out, and that's putting it very lightly. Any slow-moving storm there could easily blow up into a Cat 4/5 due to the insanely high OHC.
https://i.imgur.com/BCHMLQx.png

We've been saying this since 2007


This year has La Nina going for it but still, agree, the Caribbean doesn't just spit out storms.


Prior to CAG season, something has to fire up in the MDR, stay low and survive the trek through the eastern "graveyard." So far everything has either died or bent to the right before reaching that area (Laura).
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3092 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:40 pm

Can’t find the forecasts thread so I’ll just post it here.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1306208604853211136


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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3093 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:00 pm

12z euro gets us to Gamma in the next 5 days...
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3094 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:16 pm

supercane4867 wrote:12z euro gets us to Gamma in the next 5 days...


GFS develops nothing.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3095 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:36 pm

The good news is the Greek alphabet has 24 letters, so I think we will have enough names.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3096 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:41 pm

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3097 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:48 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:We've been saying this since 2007


This year has La Nina going for it but still, agree, the Caribbean doesn't just spit out storms.


Prior to CAG season, something has to fire up in the MDR, stay low and survive the trek through the eastern "graveyard." So far everything has either died or bent to the right before reaching that area (Laura).


Something certainly could but I'm becoming less inclined to think so. I'm more apt to think that we'll see a few low-key tropical waves cross the pond, and not start becoming better organized until actually reaching the Caribbean. If any additional storms develop east of 50W, I'd be surprised if they didn't begin a northwest track from the get-go. If I had to paint a single bullseye for one or more future storm landfalls, I'd guess Western Cuba (with the N. Bahamas and Cedar Key close seconds).
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3098 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:47 pm

20-8-1 on 9/16/20

Teddy becomes a major tomorrow so 20-8-2. Say (conservatively?) we have 7 more named storms with 3 becoming hurricanes and 2 majors. We’d be at 27-11-4. Most future seasons are going to be boring
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3099 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:57 pm

Steve wrote:20-8-1 on 9/16/20

Teddy becomes a major tomorrow so 20-8-2. Say (conservatively?) we have 7 more named storms with 3 becoming hurricanes and 2 majors. We’d be at 27-11-4. Most future seasons are going to be boring



Many don't realize what they are witnessing right now. Because they expect every system to ramp up into a 2 or better. 2020 has a great chance at unseating the venerable / vaunted 2005.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#3100 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:05 pm

Yeah. It’s some historic level of activity that many or possibly all of us may never see again. I don’t even know how many more storms we are going to have. Dr Ventrice’s site shows MJO at least neutral moving back to the basin after 9/25. We aren’t in all that favorable of a Phase now (4 also brought us Isaias). But when that last strong pulse moved across the ocean it set up the conditions for this current 6-7 storm burst. I doubt we will see as strong a signal as we did a few weeks back, so maybe we don’t get over 10 more named storms. But I think there’s a good chance we will get past Zeta (eta, theta, iota follow) which we saw in 2005 (unnamed added later). But I kind of doubt we will end up with 15 hurricanes and 7 majors (4 5’s I think too). If not, this would point to 2005 as being a more brutal season with 2020 in the all time conversation.
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