Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6598
Age: 43
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#261 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:45 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:All the 12z EPS eject this NE over Cuba and The Bahamas then OTS, with no threat to Florida.

https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1321223005155020806


Yep, it’s gone heading out to sea. :roll:

I have an image for you from Zeta.

Image
7 likes   

User avatar
Spacecoast
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 257
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#262 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:01 pm

I also have an (gfs-Para) image for you from Zeta....
Image
7 likes   

SconnieCane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 606
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#263 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:03 pm

Spacecoast wrote:I also have an (gfs-Para) image for you from Zeta....
https://i.postimg.cc/TwGpycFt/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-384.gif


This one belongs in the model run hall of fame right next to that one run where the (pre-upgrade) HWRF broke itself trying to make Typhoon Manghkut into a Great Red Spot-level superstorm in 2018. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6598
Age: 43
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#264 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:09 pm

Spacecoast wrote:I also have an (gfs-Para) image for you from Zeta....
https://i.postimg.cc/TwGpycFt/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-384.gif


That 12z para is not as outrageous not close. Again if something develops the Florida peninsula is certainly still at risk.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6598
Age: 43
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#265 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:12 pm

Not saying para will verify but what’s so unrealistic to have a hurricane moving ne into the Bahamas in November then get trapped by a ridge? Especially in 2020 given the stubborn ridging already in place
3 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6598
Age: 43
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#266 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:19 pm

18z eps already picking this up @ 138hrs

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8488
Age: 27
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#267 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:38 pm

The North Atlantic Oscillation is to remain positive so either this moves into Central America or is another northern Gulf Coast threat in my opinion. Florida is at risk but not at high risk at the moment.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Spacecoast
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 257
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#268 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:45 pm

SFLcane wrote:Not saying para will verify but what’s so unrealistic to have a hurricane moving ne into the Bahamas in November then get trapped by a ridge? Especially in 2020 given the stubborn ridging already in place


It's not unrealistic at all. There may be countless realistic solutions. The model sees what the model sees, and changes radically each run.
It may be unrealistic to put much faith in any specific solution 10-16 days out on a storm that hasn't formed yet. I will wait for some more agreement on genesis time, and location before speculating on tracks.

18z GFS, 12z UKM and 18z NAV do not indicate genesis in next 168hr. 12z. CMC has 26% genesis @162hr, but slams into Yucatan.
Brammers site has not indicated genesis genesis from GEFS, or ECMF ens, yet, but I've seen ~50% ECMF genesis prob posted earlier this thread.
I am taking this seriously, and do not believe these are ghost runs, but so far they are still all over the map. Literally.
0 likes   

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1460
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#269 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:21 pm

0z GFS has a weak low over CA through hour 180. The GFS is showing its 2020 EPAC bias again this run.
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 22605
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#270 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:33 am

Quiet thread this morning and I can see why looking at the models which unanimously bring this into Central America or show weak development.
0 likes   

Loveweather12
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 131
Joined: Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:37 pm

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#271 Postby Loveweather12 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:41 am

gatorcane wrote:Quiet thread this morning and I can see why looking at the models which unanimously bring this into Central America or show weak development.


Things will change as they always do in the model runs. People might be more focused on Zeta making landfall soon or might just be sleeping from work & stuff they do in a day.
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3692
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#272 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:49 am

gatorcane wrote:Quiet thread this morning and I can see why looking at the models which unanimously bring this into Central America or show weak development.

We’re in that same stage that we were with pre-Zeta: after many aggressive model runs, nearly all of the globals drop this, leaving it up to the ensembles, and people start doubting this’ll ever form.
4 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Jr0d
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 619
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 am
Location: Cayo Hueso

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#273 Postby Jr0d » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:54 am

aspen wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Quiet thread this morning and I can see why looking at the models which unanimously bring this into Central America or show weak development.

We’re in that same stage that we were with pre-Zeta: after many aggressive model runs, nearly all of the globals drop this, leaving it up to the ensembles, and people start doubting this’ll ever form.


Seems like the overnight models are more bearish and daytime models are bullish. Not as strong of an ensemble signal this morning and more taking it to CA.

It does like lile the timing of low forming is looking later based on ensembles. If development keeps getting pushed back, maube this thread will rival the pre Zeta thread.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3851
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#274 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:01 am

FWIW... yesterday's 18z Para buries it into Central America but it appears that by hour 384 the remnants end up in the Bahamas. Nothing crazy like yesterday's 12z run of the Para. Today's 00z run of the Para is up to hour 150 right now with missing frames but it does show development to the east of Central America once again. We'll have to wait for the rest of the run to see where it goes from there.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17

tomatkins
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 166
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:11 pm

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#275 Postby tomatkins » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:25 am

Jr0d wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Yikes! :crazyeyes:

https://i.imgur.com/kYFhOro.gif


It had a run like this pre-Zeta also.

Until a low actually forms, the models are more or less for entertainment value.


The thing is, it had a similar solution several runs in a row, telling us was that there was going to be a ridge building in for long enough that the climatologically likely solutions (NE over Cuba or W into Central America) weren't the only possible solutions. But the storm took its time forming, so it didnt get pulled NE at all. By the time it formed, the ridge was in place.
0 likes   

tomatkins
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 166
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:11 pm

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#276 Postby tomatkins » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:35 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:FWIW... yesterday's 18z Para buries it into Central America but it appears that by hour 384 the remnants end up in the Bahamas. Nothing crazy like yesterday's 12z run of the Para. Today's 00z run of the Para is up to hour 150 right now with missing frames but it does show development to the east of Central America once again. We'll have to wait for the rest of the run to see where it goes from there.
It definitely seems like its going to be something of a close call. If it moves into CA, it presumably dies out, whereas, it might not get quite that far west, then it should move out over Cuba. After that, its likely to go out to sea (or at least not threaten FL - mabye NE/Atlantic Canada.)
0 likes   

cp79
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 262
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:45 pm

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#277 Postby cp79 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:16 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:FWIW... yesterday's 18z Para buries it into Central America but it appears that by hour 384 the remnants end up in the Bahamas. Nothing crazy like yesterday's 12z run of the Para. Today's 00z run of the Para is up to hour 150 right now with missing frames but it does show development to the east of Central America once again. We'll have to wait for the rest of the run to see where it goes from there.


Makes more sense. Yesterday’s run was a joke and completely unrealistic, especially with a pretty strong front expected to move through Florida Monday. They’re call for highs in the upper 60s to low 70s here in Tampa. That should either sweep out to sea or block any storm from hitting Fla. The CA solution makes sense, too. But I think the season-ending front that comes next week should keep the US safe.
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3692
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#278 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:23 am

With the way 2020 has been going, I’m anticipating Eta to somehow find its way north into either the Yucatán or the Gulf.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2919
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#279 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:25 am

cp79 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:FWIW... yesterday's 18z Para buries it into Central America but it appears that by hour 384 the remnants end up in the Bahamas. Nothing crazy like yesterday's 12z run of the Para. Today's 00z run of the Para is up to hour 150 right now with missing frames but it does show development to the east of Central America once again. We'll have to wait for the rest of the run to see where it goes from there.


Makes more sense. Yesterday’s run was a joke and completely unrealistic, especially with a pretty strong front expected to move through Florida Monday. They’re call for highs in the upper 60s to low 70s here in Tampa. That should either sweep out to sea or block any storm from hitting Fla. The CA solution makes sense, too. But I think the season-ending front that comes next week should keep the US safe.

Not according to the Euro and GFS.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
CourierPR
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1280
Age: 66
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re: Tropical wave to move into the Caribbean for possible early-November development

#280 Postby CourierPR » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:32 am

So no system yet, but we already have the ejectors, those ready to lead burial rites, and those who are certain beyond all reasonable doubt that it will miss Florida all lining up to put in their two cents worth. Hand me some popcorn.
2 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, CrazyC83, Google Adsense [Bot], Hurricanehink, MarioProtVI, pepecool20, Sciencerocks and 35 guests