2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#21 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:17 pm



Yeah that tweet is pretty striking to say the least. I know this is simply a model run and that many things can change going forward, but there has been a very consistent trend in these models toward a cool neutral or even weak La Nina with the Atlantic warming up very nicely. That basically will always favor at least somewhat of an active Atlantic, and to be fair I'm not really going to consider this as a likely 2013 repeat due to how extraordinary and rare the conditions that occurred during that season were. I think as of now we should consider in the back of our heads that 2021 could possibly be another above average season.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#22 Postby Weather Dude » Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:39 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:


Yeah that tweet is pretty striking to say the least. I know this is simply a model run and that many things can change going forward, but there has been a very consistent trend in these models toward a cool neutral or even weak La Nina with the Atlantic warming up very nicely. That basically will always favor at least somewhat of an active Atlantic, and to be fair I'm not really going to consider this as a likely 2013 repeat due to how extraordinary and rare the conditions that occurred during that season were. I think as of now we should consider in the back of our heads that 2021 could possibly be another above average season.

Yeah I never consider any season as a potential 2013 repeat... Probably ever. But then again, I never really considered any season as a 2005 repeat. Then 2020 shoved that in my face, so I guess anything is possible at this point. Also on a side note, if 2021 does end up being above average, then all 6 name lists will have been used for an active season consecutively... That's kinda neat
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#23 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:12 pm

Right now my top analogs for 2021 are 1996, 1999, 2008, and 2011. All of these years are post-moderate or stronger Niña events since the active era began in 1995. The mean of these seasons averages out to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, with an ACE of 154.

It's extremely unlikely 2021 will come anywhere close to 2020's raw numbers. I am leaning above average right now, but lots can change since we haven't passed the SPB yet. However, I don't think a 2006-like rapid El Niño is likely, since the atmosphere is still solidly Niña like (the 30 day SOI came in at a whopping +19) and historically no first year La Niña this strong has ever been directly followed by an El Niño. I expect to see 2006 mentioned a lot this spring because it followed the previous record breaking season, but the difference in ENSO between the two years early on is very significant.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#24 Postby chaser1 » Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:26 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:


Yeah that tweet is pretty striking to say the least. I know this is simply a model run and that many things can change going forward, but there has been a very consistent trend in these models toward a cool neutral or even weak La Nina with the Atlantic warming up very nicely. That basically will always favor at least somewhat of an active Atlantic, and to be fair I'm not really going to consider this as a likely 2013 repeat due to how extraordinary and rare the conditions that occurred during that season were. I think as of now we should consider in the back of our heads that 2021 could possibly be another above average season.


That's a reasonable perspective and pretty much how I am broadly anticipating the 2021 Atlantic Season to present. The early broad brush-stroke suggests that La Nina conditions and potentially warmer Atlantic SST's would lend to at least slightly more favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development. With that in mind the bigger questions to me will be "What will be the basin area hot-spots where genesis and storm tracks will primarily occur", "Where and how strong will the dominant mid level ridging pattern occur in the North Atlantic this upcoming season", "Will we tend to see smaller or larger tropical cyclones develop and how will this along with their points of origin ultimately imply an increased or decreased risk to the Caribbean & landfall points further west"?

There is no telling how long the upcoming season will truly play out but my own analysis is that there is a tendency for one hurricane season to tend to pick up where the prior season left off. While that is certainly an overly broad and general statement especially when taking Climo into consideration, I'm simply implying that I think that it would not be overly surprising to see two or more T.S.'s form in the GOM and West Caribbean prior to June 15. Thereafter though, I'd expect a more normal and typical progression of future tropical cyclone genesis to occur during the following couple of months. Presently, long range ENSO forecasts suggest that Pacific SST's will begin moderating from peak Nina toward normal as we approach the Fall. That leaves me with the broad assumption that an earlier and more abrupt end to Atlantic basin activity would be apt to occur compared to what 2020 displayed. My guess is that we might see 2-3 named storms form after October 1st rather then the 7 that developed in Oct/Nov of 2020. As for any current assumption that Atlantic SST's may be projected to be warmer then average, that just isn't enough of an early take away by itself to assume how this will impact the season as a whole, other then to suggest one potential favorable variable that may aid to expand a broader (geographic) range and potential earlier genesis of tropical cyclones. Depending on other atmospheric conditions in place and which area's of the basin are experiencing higher then normal SST's will only then better imply if and where an increased risk of RI might occur during the season.

LAST YEAR, NOAA predicted that 2020 would have a 60 percent chance of above normal season with 13 to 19 storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. What ultimately occurred this past season could not be reasonably predicted, blew past those numbers and was clearly record setting. I believe that NOAA and CSU will forecast a very similar forecast for the upcoming 2021 Atlantic Season, with the final outcome being within the higher end of that numeric range (atm, i'm thinking around 17/10/5). What I question the most are which future indicators will best shed light suggesting WHERE in the Atlantic basin will the greatest threat & impact potentially occur. Hopefully those tea-leaves will become slightly more telling by late Spring.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#25 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:13 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Right now my top analogs for 2021 are 1996, 1999, 2008, and 2011. All of these years are post-moderate or stronger Niña events since the active era began in 1995. The mean of these seasons averages out to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, with an ACE of 154.

It's extremely unlikely 2021 will come anywhere close to 2020's raw numbers. I am leaning above average right now, but lots can change since we haven't passed the SPB yet. However, I don't think a 2006-like rapid El Niño is likely, since the atmosphere is still solidly Niña like (the 30 day SOI came in at a whopping +19) and historically no first year La Niña this strong has ever been directly followed by an El Niño. I expect to see 2006 mentioned a lot this spring because it followed the previous record breaking season, but the difference in ENSO between the two years early on is very significant.


Yes I agree wholeheartedly, just because 2020 went Greek like 2005 does not mean the seasons and their circumstances (as well as the possible impacts on the subsequent season) are the same. In fact, the only similarities between 2020 and 2005 from my understanding are they went Greek and had above average sst anomalies in the MDR. Other than that 2020 had a strong MDR storm (looking at you Teddy..) that 2005 lacked, but 2005's ACE score was 250, which is way more than 2020's 180 (thanks to those 4 Cat 5s especially in 2005). In addition, 2005 was a bit front-loaded with the powerful July hurricanes while 2020 was very backloaded with the powerful November hurricanes and weak summer storms. So yes, with a plethora of differences to be delineated as well as the fact that 2020's La Nina is way stronger than 2005, the "oh, because 2020 went Greek like 2005 means 2021 will be inactive and dead like 2006" idea is flawed.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#26 Postby toad strangler » Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:37 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Right now my top analogs for 2021 are 1996, 1999, 2008, and 2011. All of these years are post-moderate or stronger Niña events since the active era began in 1995. The mean of these seasons averages out to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, with an ACE of 154.

It's extremely unlikely 2021 will come anywhere close to 2020's raw numbers. I am leaning above average right now, but lots can change since we haven't passed the SPB yet. However, I don't think a 2006-like rapid El Niño is likely, since the atmosphere is still solidly Niña like (the 30 day SOI came in at a whopping +19) and historically no first year La Niña this strong has ever been directly followed by an El Niño. I expect to see 2006 mentioned a lot this spring because it followed the previous record breaking season, but the difference in ENSO between the two years early on is very significant.


Yes I agree wholeheartedly, just because 2020 went Greek like 2005 does not mean the seasons and their circumstances (as well as the possible impacts on the subsequent season) are the same. In fact, the only similarities between 2020 and 2005 from my understanding are they went Greek and had above average sst anomalies in the MDR. Other than that 2020 had a strong MDR storm (looking at you Teddy..) that 2005 lacked, but 2005's ACE score was 250, which is way more than 2020's 180 (thanks to those 4 Cat 5s especially in 2005). In addition, 2005 was a bit front-loaded with the powerful July hurricanes while 2020 was very backloaded with the powerful November hurricanes and weak summer storms. So yes, with a plethora of differences to be delineated as well as the fact that 2020's La Nina is way stronger than 2005, the "oh, because 2020 went Greek like 2005 means 2021 will be inactive and dead like 2006" idea is flawed.


Welp, when you have multiple storms RI close in or just before landfall ACE begins to look rather silly in determining the impacts or activity between seasons. ACE is tremendously flawed when used that way.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#27 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:57 pm

Seasonal forecasting this far out is always challenging. I agree, at this time there is nothing to suggest that 2021 will be quiet and the indicators suggest above average to insanely hyperactive.

If 2021 is another year like 2020, I wonder if there will be quite a few changes to the procedures, such as naming rules?
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#28 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:43 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Seasonal forecasting this far out is always challenging. I agree, at this time there is nothing to suggest that 2021 will be quiet and the indicators suggest above average to insanely hyperactive.

If 2021 is another year like 2020, I wonder if there will be quite a few changes to the procedures, such as naming rules?


Yeah that is an interesting thought indeed, and with the current and expected conditions in the Atlantic I actually would not be surprised if this season defies expectations and goes over 21 NSs (maybe not 30 or somewhere near that, but who knows?). You should refer to the "Greek retirement" thread for more detailed info on some suggestions for new naming schemes, but in summary I do think that *if* in case the 2021 season does go over 21 named storms, the WMO will either implement a new 7th normal name auxiliary list or hop onto List 2 (so the 22nd storm would be Alex, and the 23rd would be Bonnie, then Colin, Danielle, and so forth for however many additional storms).
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:47 am

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:24 am

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#31 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:35 am

cycloneye wrote:Wet MDR for peak of season. :eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1349010244001693696

Steering currents look pretty similar to ‘20’s on that chart: tracks toward the Caribbean (just what Central America needs...not!), the Bay of Campeche, and the easternmost Gulf of Mexico, with a streak of above-average precipitation situated south of the Canadian Maritimes, too. Note the very dry anomalies over the Sargasso Sea and eastern subtropical Atlantic, indicating yet another strong, basin-wide Bermuda High in place. The main difference is that classical La Niña conditions appear to be much more well established than at the same time in ‘20, with upward motion solidly focused on the Maritime Continent and pronounced dry anomalies over the equatorial Pacific. What is rather scary is that the African monsoon appears to be as robust as ever, and the tongue of below-average precipitation over the Gulf of Guinea indicates a solid +AMO configuration (warm MDR, cool Gulf of Guinea). In fact, the setup almost looks even more conducive than on the early forecasts for ‘20. That hint of above-average precipitation in the BoC was also present on the early models in ‘20 and ended up precipitating an active west-central GoM. The steering currents on the NMME look ominously similar to those of ‘20, which is the last thing Gulf Coasters need!
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#32 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:21 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Wet MDR for peak of season. :eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1349010244001693696

Steering currents look pretty similar to ‘20’s on that chart: tracks toward the Caribbean (just what Central America needs...not!), the Bay of Campeche, and the easternmost Gulf of Mexico, with a streak of above-average precipitation situated south of the Canadian Maritimes, too. Note the very dry anomalies over the Sargasso Sea and eastern subtropical Atlantic, indicating yet another strong, basin-wide Bermuda High in place. The main difference is that classical La Niña conditions appear to be much more well established than at the same time in ‘20, with upward motion solidly focused on the Maritime Continent and pronounced dry anomalies over the equatorial Pacific. What is rather scary is that the African monsoon appears to be as robust as ever, and the tongue of below-average precipitation over the Gulf of Guinea indicates a solid +AMO configuration (warm MDR, cool Gulf of Guinea). In fact, the setup almost looks even more conducive than on the early forecasts for ‘20. That hint of above-average precipitation in the BoC was also present on the early models in ‘20 and ended up precipitating an active west-central GoM. The steering currents on the NMME look ominously similar to those of ‘20, which is the last thing Gulf Coasters need!


Yeah I do wonder though if the eastern Gulf being wetter than normal would mean the West Coast of Florida may see more impacts, at least during the JJA timeframe.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#33 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:46 am

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#34 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:13 pm



Very active look to the African monsoon. Yikes!
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#35 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Jan 18, 2021 8:48 am

Going back to the 1800s, does anyone know what combination of ENSO, PDO, and NAO has produced the most Category-4+ strikes on South Florida? Thank you.
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