Weather Dude wrote:
No mention yet of retirements. Some interesting changes forthcoming:
* NHC will begin to discuss extending the hurricane season out to May 15. In the interim, routine TWO's in the Atlantic will begin on that date.
* New headers may be created to allow for more than 5 storms to have advisories routinely at once without complications. There are currently 5 sets of product headers.
Interesting changes indeed. Not sure I agree with the idea of moving the start of the season up to May 15. Sure, we're on a 6 year TS in May streak, but as a whole, I don't think there's been enough activity historically to start the season in May. I think it should stay as it is with June 1 as the start. If recent trends continue and we end up seeing more and more storms in May, then changing it would work but for now I think they should just keep it how it is.
Well the past 20 years, the majority of seasons have had at least one tropical cyclone
form before June, averaging out to 1 cyclone every 3 years at least in May.
Remember Tropical Depressions are still tropical cyclones classified and given advisories by the NHC, and our detection of all TC’s have become more efficient over time.
Heck, even past decades as the HURDAT database gets expanded, more and more possible or confirmed pre-seasons cyclones, (S)TS or (S)TD or whatever, are now being discovered.
A May 15 to Nov. 15 season may make more sense TBH because the past 20 years have had about half of storms dissipate before Nov. 15, and half seasons end after Nov. 15 so that could also be an interesting discussion.
Most storms that dissipate after Nov. 15 have also tended to last into December, and post Nov. 15 storms are becoming more rare than pre-June 1st storms.
Anywho, if they still wait on retirement this year again, remember that we still have a long time till 2025, 2026, and 2027, and COVID-19 is still a problem right now, so there isn’t an issue if they delay retirement or not.
I guarantee they will retire Dorian and others before their respective lists are used again so there should be no reason to be worried. ALSO
, the fact the Greek Name Discussion wasn’t listed may be disconcerting to some. Either they expect there to be much contention about it, or there may be little to no interest in changing the current ATL/EPAC auxiliary naming system.
2021 is already giving me bad vibes...
There is no reason to believe lightning can’t strike twice in a row and the ATL dig into the greeks this season....