2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

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NorthieStangl
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#301 Postby NorthieStangl » Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:01 pm

al78 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:At this point here's what I think.

2020: Laura is also a no-brainer when it comes down to retirement. My three guesses for the replacement name are: Lucy, Lorraine or Lindsay.


Lorraine used to be used in the East Pacific, but not any more, whether that affects its likelihood of ever being used in the Atlantic I don't know.


Lorraine wasn't retired, so it can be used. There was a precedence in reusing a name that was used in the past but didn't get retired - Laura was used once, in 1971, before it was dropped when male names were introduced to the name lists in 1979, and it replaced Lili after 2002.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#302 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:17 am

https://tinyurl.com/niarcz0f

No mention yet of retirements. Some interesting changes forthcoming:

* NHC will begin to discuss extending the hurricane season out to May 15. In the interim, routine TWO's in the Atlantic will begin on that date.

* New headers may be created to allow for more than 5 storms to have advisories routinely at once without complications. There are currently 5 sets of product headers.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#303 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:49 am

CrazyC83 wrote:https://tinyurl.com/niarcz0f

No mention yet of retirements. Some interesting changes forthcoming:

* NHC will begin to discuss extending the hurricane season out to May 15. In the interim, routine TWO's in the Atlantic will begin on that date.

* New headers may be created to allow for more than 5 storms to have advisories routinely at once without complications. There are currently 5 sets of product headers.

Interesting changes indeed. Not sure I agree with the idea of moving the start of the season up to May 15. Sure, we're on a 6 year TS in May streak, but as a whole, I don't think there's been enough activity historically to start the season in May. I think it should stay as it is with June 1 as the start. If recent trends continue and we end up seeing more and more storms in May, then changing it would work but for now I think they should just keep it how it is.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#304 Postby ClarCari » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:20 am

Weather Dude wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:https://tinyurl.com/niarcz0f

No mention yet of retirements. Some interesting changes forthcoming:

* NHC will begin to discuss extending the hurricane season out to May 15. In the interim, routine TWO's in the Atlantic will begin on that date.

* New headers may be created to allow for more than 5 storms to have advisories routinely at once without complications. There are currently 5 sets of product headers.

Interesting changes indeed. Not sure I agree with the idea of moving the start of the season up to May 15. Sure, we're on a 6 year TS in May streak, but as a whole, I don't think there's been enough activity historically to start the season in May. I think it should stay as it is with June 1 as the start. If recent trends continue and we end up seeing more and more storms in May, then changing it would work but for now I think they should just keep it how it is.


Well the past 20 years, the majority of seasons have had at least one tropical cyclone form before June, averaging out to 1 cyclone every 3 years at least in May.
Remember Tropical Depressions are still tropical cyclones classified and given advisories by the NHC, and our detection of all TC’s have become more efficient over time.
Heck, even past decades as the HURDAT database gets expanded, more and more possible or confirmed pre-seasons cyclones, (S)TS or (S)TD or whatever, are now being discovered.
A May 15 to Nov. 15 season may make more sense TBH because the past 20 years have had about half of storms dissipate before Nov. 15, and half seasons end after Nov. 15 so that could also be an interesting discussion.

Most storms that dissipate after Nov. 15 have also tended to last into December, and post Nov. 15 storms are becoming more rare than pre-June 1st storms.

Anywho, if they still wait on retirement this year again, remember that we still have a long time till 2025, 2026, and 2027, and COVID-19 is still a problem right now, so there isn’t an issue if they delay retirement or not.
I guarantee they will retire Dorian and others before their respective lists are used again so there should be no reason to be worried.

ALSO, the fact the Greek Name Discussion wasn’t listed may be disconcerting to some. Either they expect there to be much contention about it, or there may be little to no interest in changing the current ATL/EPAC auxiliary naming system.

2021 is already giving me bad vibes...
There is no reason to believe lightning can’t strike twice in a row and the ATL dig into the greeks this season....
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#305 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:32 pm

One nightmare scenario that has to be considered is what if BOTH the Atlantic and EPAC exhaust their lists in the same season?
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#306 Postby aspen » Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:21 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:One nightmare scenario that has to be considered is what if BOTH the Atlantic and EPAC exhaust their lists in the same season?

Is it even possible for both basins to be that active in the same year? The closest we got to that happening was 2018, and while the EPac was very close to exhausting its name list, the Atlantic (while active) wasn’t close.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#307 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:04 pm

aspen wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:One nightmare scenario that has to be considered is what if BOTH the Atlantic and EPAC exhaust their lists in the same season?

Is it even possible for both basins to be that active in the same year? The closest we got to that happening was 2018, and while the EPac was very close to exhausting its name list, the Atlantic (while active) wasn’t close.


I was wondering the same thing. I guess it's technically possible (and I only say that because it's hard for me to rule anything out entirely, especially when it comes to the tropics), but I imagine it's highly unlikely.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#308 Postby al78 » Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:19 pm

aspen wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:One nightmare scenario that has to be considered is what if BOTH the Atlantic and EPAC exhaust their lists in the same season?

Is it even possible for both basins to be that active in the same year? The closest we got to that happening was 2018, and while the EPac was very close to exhausting its name list, the Atlantic (while active) wasn’t close.


I think (and this is my humble opinion, I'm not an authority in tropical cyclones although I have some knowledge) the probability of this happening is tiny. The Atlantic and East Pacific activity is often in antiphase, so a hyperactive season in one basin will nearly always result in an average or below average season in the other basin. I would guess that the climate factors that favour very active East Pacific seasons have some suppressing factor on Atlantic seasons, and vice versa.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#309 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:38 pm

I can confirm that it will be a virtual meeting but a full meeting in two parts. The discussion about the past season, products and name lists will be in mid-March. Other work will be done in May.

Dorian will finally go into the dustbin of history, joined with Laura and perhaps others. I do think Dorian will be the only retired name from 2019 as that season is pretty much forgotten now otherwise. As far as 2020, Laura is the only sure-fire retirement of the natural names (Isaias and Sally would be the next two in line) but treatment of the Greeks will be a big question to ask. If they were natural names, Eta and Iota would be certain to be retired, with Delta and Zeta getting considered as well but less certain.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#310 Postby aspen » Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:39 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I can confirm that it will be a virtual meeting but a full meeting in two parts. The discussion about the past season, products and name lists will be in mid-March. Other work will be done in May.

Dorian will finally go into the dustbin of history, joined with Laura and perhaps others. I do think Dorian will be the only retired name from 2019 as that season is pretty much forgotten now otherwise. As far as 2020, Laura is the only sure-fire retirement of the natural names (Isaias and Sally would be the next two in line) but treatment of the Greeks will be a big question to ask. If they were natural names, Eta and Iota would be certain to be retired, with Delta and Zeta getting considered as well but less certain.

Any arguments for Imelda being retired have gone down the drain, after the ridiculous number of billion-dollar storms from last year: Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta, Eta, and Iota. Imelda is no longer something special that stands out. People will likely remember Laura, Delta, and Zeta way more than Imelda, which barely even had enough time to be named.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#311 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:09 am

The updated plan for the meeting suggests that retirements for 2019 and 2020 will be discussed on March 17. In addition, the meeting schedule mentions the usage of the Greek Alphabet, so it seems as if it will be discussed. With this as well as the discussion of changing the Atlantic start date, it will be a very interesting WMO meeting this year.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#312 Postby NorthieStangl » Wed Feb 24, 2021 3:45 am

aspen wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I can confirm that it will be a virtual meeting but a full meeting in two parts. The discussion about the past season, products and name lists will be in mid-March. Other work will be done in May.

Dorian will finally go into the dustbin of history, joined with Laura and perhaps others. I do think Dorian will be the only retired name from 2019 as that season is pretty much forgotten now otherwise. As far as 2020, Laura is the only sure-fire retirement of the natural names (Isaias and Sally would be the next two in line) but treatment of the Greeks will be a big question to ask. If they were natural names, Eta and Iota would be certain to be retired, with Delta and Zeta getting considered as well but less certain.

Any arguments for Imelda being retired have gone down the drain, after the ridiculous number of billion-dollar storms from last year: Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta, Eta, and Iota. Imelda is no longer something special that stands out. People will likely remember Laura, Delta, and Zeta way more than Imelda, which barely even had enough time to be named.


I wouldn't be so sure of it. If a request was going to be made for Imelda's retirement in 2020, the paperwork probably just got transferred over to 2021. I still see it as a toss-up though.

As active as the 2020 season was, it made complete sense that the meeting this year got split into two parts.
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#313 Postby ClarCari » Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:55 am

NorthieStangl wrote:
aspen wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I can confirm that it will be a virtual meeting but a full meeting in two parts. The discussion about the past season, products and name lists will be in mid-March. Other work will be done in May.

Dorian will finally go into the dustbin of history, joined with Laura and perhaps others. I do think Dorian will be the only retired name from 2019 as that season is pretty much forgotten now otherwise. As far as 2020, Laura is the only sure-fire retirement of the natural names (Isaias and Sally would be the next two in line) but treatment of the Greeks will be a big question to ask. If they were natural names, Eta and Iota would be certain to be retired, with Delta and Zeta getting considered as well but less certain.

Any arguments for Imelda being retired have gone down the drain, after the ridiculous number of billion-dollar storms from last year: Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta, Eta, and Iota. Imelda is no longer something special that stands out. People will likely remember Laura, Delta, and Zeta way more than Imelda, which barely even had enough time to be named.


I wouldn't be so sure of it. If a request was going to be made for Imelda's retirement in 2020, the paperwork probably just got transferred over to 2021. I still see it as a toss-up though.

As active as the 2020 season was, it made complete sense that the meeting this year got split into two parts.


I can pretty much guarantee no one submitted any requests for retirement on behalf of Texas because of Imelda lol. The actual name got hardly any coverage here in Texas and people saw it more as a heavy rain system than a named tropical system.
Claudette 1979 was wetter in the same areas but heyyyy that name is set to be used again this year.
And simply put: how long a storm is a named system does in fact matter more than some people may think.
It was no Allison, it was no Harvey, and even Rita, Ike, and Laura caused more damage on some of these East Texas areas.

Lorenzo is the more definite tossup from 2019 since it skirted the Azores with some hurricane-force winds which is rare in that area, but we shall see how they decide.

I’m kinda glad the naming discussions are happening in March so we can finally put the past two years of debate of retiring these names behind us sooner rather than later!
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Re: 2019 and 2020 Cyclones Retirement (both years to be announced in 2021)

#314 Postby NotoSans » Thu Feb 25, 2021 5:34 am

Confirmed that Vongfong, Linfa, Molave, Goni and Vamco have been retired.

Replacement for the six names retired last year:
Yutu --> Yinxing
Kammuri --> Koto
Faxai --> Nongfa
Phanfone --> Nokaen
Hagibis --> Ragasa
Lekima --> Comay

Also rumoured that Singapore has become the latest member of the Typhoon Committee - don't know if it means 10 more names to the WPAC name list.
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