Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Iceresistance
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU up at 10 AM EDT

#41 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:24 pm

ClarCari wrote:I’m wondering if Klotzbach is getting cold feet for this forecast after how badly his and Gray’s 2006 forecast (along of course with everybody else in the world’s) busted. :lol: Making a forecast for a season following the busiest on record is no easy task. hehe...

In all seriousness, I can’t wait to see his insight on current trends and what clues him and his team are trying to sniff out.


2013 ATL was also a Mega-bust
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#42 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:54 pm

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#43 Postby aspen » Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:58 am

Only 24 hours until the first CSU prediction. I’m thinking they’ll go below below the originally TSR numbers and forecast an only slightly above normal season.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#44 Postby BadLarry95 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:31 am

Looking at the cool equatorial pacific but also the cold spot off africa, I can see them assuming a 2012 type year. 18 NS/8H/4M
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#45 Postby ouragans » Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:31 pm

Any idea about when TSR will release their April update?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#46 Postby ClarCari » Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:56 pm

aspen wrote:Only 24 hours until the first CSU prediction. I’m thinking they’ll go below below the originally TSR numbers and forecast an only slightly above normal season.

Forecasting under the original TSR numbers would already put it at average since the new averages are in effect this year. I doubt he goes lower than 16/17 NS. I might even be shocked if he goes below 18 NS.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#47 Postby aspen » Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:09 pm

ClarCari wrote:
aspen wrote:Only 24 hours until the first CSU prediction. I’m thinking they’ll go below below the originally TSR numbers and forecast an only slightly above normal season.

Forecasting under the original TSR numbers would already put it at average since the new averages are in effect this year. I doubt he goes lower than 16/17 NS. I might even be shocked if he goes below 18 NS.

I’m never going to get used to the new averages making 160-170 ACE just “regular above-average”.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#48 Postby Blown Away » Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:33 am

Anxious to see the CSU update today and Joe B's impact map... 8-)
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=17/8/4

#49 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:10 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=17/8/4

#50 Postby emeraldislenc » Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:11 am

Looks like an active year.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=17/8/4

#51 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:44 am

They called for a active season, but it's nothing compared to 2020 . . .
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=17/8/4

#52 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:47 am

Analog years include 2017. :eek:

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#53 Postby ouragans » Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:24 am

ouragans wrote:Any idea about when TSR will release their April update?

TSR update is due on April 13th
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=17/8/4

#54 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:55 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=17/8/4

#55 Postby hurricane2025 » Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:07 pm

Iceresistance wrote:They called for a active season, but it's nothing compared to 2020 . . .



lol the season hasn't started yet so we don't know that, 2017 and 2008 was a very active year.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=17/8/4

#56 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:13 pm

hurricane2025 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:They called for a active season, but it's nothing compared to 2020 . . .



lol the season hasn't started yet so we don't know that, 2017 and 2008 was a very active year.


I remember tracking the "Triplets of Terror" in 2017, it was CRAZY!

(And welcome to the team! :D )
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=17/8/4

#57 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:44 pm

Iceresistance wrote:They called for a active season, but it's nothing compared to 2020 . . .

That would hold true for 99% of all seasons. :wink:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=17/8/4

#58 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:53 pm

Looks like I'm going to be jumping onboard a little earlier than normal this season, I saw the CSU forecast and was very interested in what they were able to gather, the April NMME was also interesting in forecasting a wetter MDR by ASO. It's still April but with less than 53 days to go, it's about time to start getting my daily dose of hurricanetrack's hurricane outlooks, I always love his discussions before the start of the official season.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=17/8/4

#59 Postby toad strangler » Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:33 pm

"We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean."

In CSU opening forecast statement :uarrow:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=17/8/4

#60 Postby toad strangler » Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:45 pm

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