2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#241 Postby aspen » Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:28 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
ClarCari wrote:any model that reflects warm-neutral or anything warmer on the ATL this season is being dishonest
The models that predict any conditions in the ATL (high wind shear, dry moisture, etc,) are again being dishonest...

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1382656793340436480
OHC is insane for April but it's also the atmosphere playing a significant role to allow for this type of intensification -- this early in the year. For some reason it's behaving the exact opposite of La Niña over the WPAC.

Source

A favorable WPac doesn’t automatically mean the Atlantic will be unfavorable.

Take 2018 for an example. It was a warm-neutral/weak Niño year, and the Pacific on both sides was an absolute beast. The EPac pumped out 10 major hurricanes, 3 Category 5s, and over 300 ACE; the WPac saw a Cat 4 Super Typhoon in April and a nearly constant stream of Category 5s from September through October, so much so that it was almost too much for the basin to handle (Trami left a massive cold wake that significantly weaker Kong-Rey). And despite a very favorable Pacific, the Atlantic still had an above-average season with two storms causing roughly $50 billion total in damages, one of which was the first CONUS Cat 5 landfall since Andrew.

So ENSO and Pacific base states are only part of the story. It’s been mentioned multiple times that the strong WAM of the last several years has helped offset the potentially negative impact of a generally warm ENSO. That was the case in 2018, and that’ll likely be the case this year too. Also, the SST configuration in March-April 2018 was WAY less favorable looking than that of the same time frame this year. If 2018 could become an active year with all of those cards stacked against it, then 2021 has a decent shot too.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#242 Postby ClarCari » Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:35 pm

aspen wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
ClarCari wrote:any model that reflects warm-neutral or anything warmer on the ATL this season is being dishonest
The models that predict any conditions in the ATL (high wind shear, dry moisture, etc,) are again being dishonest...

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1382656793340436480
OHC is insane for April but it's also the atmosphere playing a significant role to allow for this type of intensification -- this early in the year. For some reason it's behaving the exact opposite of La Niña over the WPAC.

Source

A favorable WPac doesn’t automatically mean the Atlantic will be unfavorable.

Take 2018 for an example. It was a warm-neutral/weak Niño year, and the Pacific on both sides was an absolute beast. The EPac pumped out 10 major hurricanes, 3 Category 5s, and over 300 ACE; the WPac saw a Cat 4 Super Typhoon in April and a nearly constant stream of Category 5s from September through October, so much so that it was almost too much for the basin to handle (Trami left a massive cold wake that significantly weaker Kong-Rey). And despite a very favorable Pacific, the Atlantic still had an above-average season with two storms causing roughly $50 billion total in damages, one of which was the first CONUS Cat 5 landfall since Andrew.

So ENSO and Pacific base states are only part of the story. It’s been mentioned multiple times that the strong WAM of the last several years has helped offset the potentially negative impact of a generally warm ENSO. That was the case in 2018, and that’ll likely be the case this year too. Also, the SST configuration in March-April 2018 was WAY less favorable looking than that of the same time frame this year. If 2018 could become an active year with all of those cards stacked against it, then 2021 has a decent shot too.

I hear ya on everything.
The part in bold is the big point I’m looking at. 2021, at present, has more evidence to an active season than otherwise. I’m not even taking potential WAM into account just yet. Even without it, the ATL gives off more favorable “vibes” right now I’d argue.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#243 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:28 pm

aspen wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
ClarCari wrote:any model that reflects warm-neutral or anything warmer on the ATL this season is being dishonest
The models that predict any conditions in the ATL (high wind shear, dry moisture, etc,) are again being dishonest...

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1382656793340436480
OHC is insane for April but it's also the atmosphere playing a significant role to allow for this type of intensification -- this early in the year. For some reason it's behaving the exact opposite of La Niña over the WPAC.

Source

A favorable WPac doesn’t automatically mean the Atlantic will be unfavorable.

Take 2018 for an example. It was a warm-neutral/weak Niño year, and the Pacific on both sides was an absolute beast. The EPac pumped out 10 major hurricanes, 3 Category 5s, and over 300 ACE; the WPac saw a Cat 4 Super Typhoon in April and a nearly constant stream of Category 5s from September through October, so much so that it was almost too much for the basin to handle (Trami left a massive cold wake that significantly weaker Kong-Rey). And despite a very favorable Pacific, the Atlantic still had an above-average season with two storms causing roughly $50 billion total in damages, one of which was the first CONUS Cat 5 landfall since Andrew.

So ENSO and Pacific base states are only part of the story. It’s been mentioned multiple times that the strong WAM of the last several years has helped offset the potentially negative impact of a generally warm ENSO. That was the case in 2018, and that’ll likely be the case this year too. Also, the SST configuration in March-April 2018 was WAY less favorable looking than that of the same time frame this year. If 2018 could become an active year with all of those cards stacked against it, then 2021 has a decent shot too.


Yeah 2004 was like this too; that year was both extremely active in the WPAC and Atlantic, but the EPAC interestingly was quiet. That's a combination that you probably do not think of all the time, but it has happened. Also, take a look at this:

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1380164779449389056




I think Phil really is onto something for him to say that. And the fact that 2021's analog years are 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011, and 2017 imho really emphasize the idea that this season has certain potential to be active.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#244 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:26 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
ClarCari wrote:any model that reflects warm-neutral or anything warmer on the ATL this season is being dishonest
The models that predict any conditions in the ATL (high wind shear, dry moisture, etc,) are again being dishonest...

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1382656793340436480
OHC is insane for April but it's also the atmosphere playing a significant role to allow for this type of intensification -- this early in the year. For some reason it's behaving the exact opposite of La Niña over the WPAC.

[url=http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2900792#p2900792]Source[url]


It's a bit tricky when it comes to strong spring Typhoons and what it means for ENSO and if there are any Atlantic hurricane season implications. High WPAC ACE during late winter and spring does not always mean +ENSO is likely for ASO.
 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1380935331915124745




For the most part it does indicate that neutral conditions are in place and not a La Nina, which is pretty obvious at this point. But it doesn't mean that La Nina can't return during ASO.

But when it comes to STY Surigae, its intensity puts it in the same company as the strong spring STY's of 1997 and 2015.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#245 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:00 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
ClarCari wrote:any model that reflects warm-neutral or anything warmer on the ATL this season is being dishonest
The models that predict any conditions in the ATL (high wind shear, dry moisture, etc,) are again being dishonest...

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1382656793340436480
OHC is insane for April but it's also the atmosphere playing a significant role to allow for this type of intensification -- this early in the year. For some reason it's behaving the exact opposite of La Niña over the WPAC.

Source[url]


It's a bit tricky when it comes to strong spring Typhoons and what it means for ENSO and if there are any Atlantic hurricane season implications. High WPAC ACE during late winter and spring does not always mean +ENSO is likely for ASO.
[url]https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1380935331915124745/photo/1


For the most part it does indicate that neutral conditions are in place and not a La Nina, which is pretty obvious at this point. But it doesn't mean that La Nina can't return during ASO.

But when it comes to STY Surigae, its intensity puts it in the same company as the strong spring STY's of 1997 and 2015.


1997 and 2015 were interestingly Super El Nino years
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#246 Postby NotSparta » Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:53 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
ClarCari wrote:any model that reflects warm-neutral or anything warmer on the ATL this season is being dishonest
The models that predict any conditions in the ATL (high wind shear, dry moisture, etc,) are again being dishonest...

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1382656793340436480
OHC is insane for April but it's also the atmosphere playing a significant role to allow for this type of intensification -- this early in the year. For some reason it's behaving the exact opposite of La Niña over the WPAC.

Source[url]


It's a bit tricky when it comes to strong spring Typhoons and what it means for ENSO and if there are any Atlantic hurricane season implications. High WPAC ACE during late winter and spring does not always mean +ENSO is likely for ASO.
[url]https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1380935331915124745/photo/1


For the most part it does indicate that neutral conditions are in place and not a La Nina, which is pretty obvious at this point. But it doesn't mean that La Nina can't return during ASO.

But when it comes to STY Surigae, its intensity puts it in the same company as the strong spring STY's of 1997 and 2015.


I believe Surigae is a good bit further west meaning it would probably have less WWB effect than the 1997 and 2015 STYs
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#247 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 18, 2021 2:53 pm

What does this mean if anything for the upcomming season? What is Charney Stern condition? I found a PDF study about it that has to do with AEWS. http://www.geo.cornell.edu/geology/facu ... AEW_PV.pdf

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1383869413024145417


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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#248 Postby SFLcane » Sun Apr 18, 2021 5:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:What does this mean if anything for the upcomming season? What is Charney Stern condition? I found a PDF study about it that has to do with AEWS. http://www.geo.cornell.edu/geology/facu ... AEW_PV.pdf

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1383869413024145417


Hey Luis, It's basically a sharp vorticity gradient no meaning to season.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#249 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 18, 2021 5:56 pm

SFLcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:What does this mean if anything for the upcomming season? What is Charney Stern condition? I found a PDF study about it that has to do with AEWS. http://www.geo.cornell.edu/geology/facu ... AEW_PV.pdf

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1383869413024145417


Hey Luis, It's basically a sharp vorticity gradient no meaning to season.


Ok thank you.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#250 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:38 am

The Atlantic is Warmer this time of the year, coastal Africa, Bermuda & some of the Caribbean is below Normal.

The EPAC is generally COLDER right now, near the coastline to 120°W is the only area that is warmer right now . . .

Image
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#251 Postby SFLcane » Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:59 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The Atlantic is Warmer this time of the year, coastal Africa, Bermuda & some of the Caribbean is below Normal.

The EPAC is generally COLDER right now, near the coastline to 120°W is the only area that is warmer right now . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/ssta.daily.current.png


Yeah it's definitely trended a bit more toward positive amo. We'll see how it evolves
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#252 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:44 am

I would anticipate more warming of the Tropical Atlantic and Canary Current real soon. Models are showing a widespread relaxation of trades in these regions.


Image
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#253 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:05 am

It will be interesting to see whether we trend toward both warm neutral ENSO and a +AMO simultaneously by ASO. Coupled with an active African monsoon (hence weaker trades → warmer MDR), this could really complicate forecasts for multiple basins. The key might be whether the warmest SST in the tropical Pacific are biased eastward, toward NINO 1/2, or westward, toward NINO 3.4/4. An eastward-biased warm-neutral ENSO would offset the +AMO/African monsoon by increasing VWS over the Caribbean and most of the MDR. However, a “Modoki”-type, west-biased + signature could still yield a very active or even hyperactive Atlantic season, especially with an +AMO in place. Also, a west-based warm-neutral ENSO signature would yield less of a persistent TUTT over the tropical Atlantic, and also tend to result in a stronger, more west-based Bermuda High than would east-biased + SST. This would basically mean the difference between 2004/2018 (“Modoki”) and 2006/2009 (east-based + SST).
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#254 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:07 am

aspen wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
ClarCari wrote:any model that reflects warm-neutral or anything warmer on the ATL this season is being dishonest
The models that predict any conditions in the ATL (high wind shear, dry moisture, etc,) are again being dishonest...

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1382656793340436480
OHC is insane for April but it's also the atmosphere playing a significant role to allow for this type of intensification -- this early in the year. For some reason it's behaving the exact opposite of La Niña over the WPAC.

Source

A favorable WPac doesn’t automatically mean the Atlantic will be unfavorable.

Take 2018 for an example. It was a warm-neutral/weak Niño year, and the Pacific on both sides was an absolute beast. The EPac pumped out 10 major hurricanes, 3 Category 5s, and over 300 ACE; the WPac saw a Cat 4 Super Typhoon in April and a nearly constant stream of Category 5s from September through October, so much so that it was almost too much for the basin to handle (Trami left a massive cold wake that significantly weaker Kong-Rey). And despite a very favorable Pacific, the Atlantic still had an above-average season with two storms causing roughly $50 billion total in damages, one of which was the first CONUS Cat 5 landfall since Andrew.

So ENSO and Pacific base states are only part of the story. It’s been mentioned multiple times that the strong WAM of the last several years has helped offset the potentially negative impact of a generally warm ENSO. That was the case in 2018, and that’ll likely be the case this year too. Also, the SST configuration in March-April 2018 was WAY less favorable looking than that of the same time frame this year. If 2018 could become an active year with all of those cards stacked against it, then 2021 has a decent shot too.

I think the key is that 2018, like 2004, featured a “Modoki”-type Niño, which is conducive to enhanced activity in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#255 Postby chaser1 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:31 am

Some very interesting and valid points are made by both Aspen and Shell Mound, above :uarrow: I think that a few past years have better telegraphed the ENSO & AMO states to occur for those perspective upcoming Summer months prior to that years' "Spring Barrier", more clearly then other years (this year included). I still think that a far more clearer picture will become evident by mid May :think:
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#256 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:31 pm

Shell Mound wrote:It will be interesting to see whether we trend toward both warm neutral ENSO and a +AMO simultaneously by ASO. Coupled with an active African monsoon (hence weaker trades → warmer MDR), this could really complicate forecasts for multiple basins. The key might be whether the warmest SST in the tropical Pacific are biased eastward, toward NINO 1/2, or westward, toward NINO 3.4/4. An eastward-biased warm-neutral ENSO would offset the +AMO/African monsoon by increasing VWS over the Caribbean and most of the MDR. However, a “Modoki”-type, west-biased + signature could still yield a very active or even hyperactive Atlantic season, especially with an +AMO in place. Also, a west-based warm-neutral ENSO signature would yield less of a persistent TUTT over the tropical Atlantic, and also tend to result in a stronger, more west-based Bermuda High than would east-biased + SST. This would basically mean the difference between 2004/2018 (“Modoki”) and 2006/2009 (east-based + SST).


Then I'd have to wonder what 1969 was. That was a hyperactive Atlantic with a 900 mbar Cat 5 yet was an El Nino year
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#257 Postby SFLcane » Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:04 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:I would anticipate more warming of the Tropical Atlantic and Canary Current real soon. Models are showing a widespread relaxation of trades in these regions.


https://i.ibb.co/7K7f60G/0420.png
https://i.ibb.co/yWngvny/d8871fc4-7da3-4252-b856-cd4412cdb78f.gif
https://i.ibb.co/s2BKXJQ/ecmwf-u850a-Mean-atl-fh120-240-1.gif


Yeah just gotta watch the Pacific warming too. Definitely think the AMO is trending warm for summer especially as the WAM gets going. My advice in all honesty prepare for an active season how active if I had to make a guess very active.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#258 Postby SFLcane » Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:10 pm

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2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images: IMME shows very favorable signal

#259 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:07 am

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2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images: IMME shows very favorable signal

#260 Postby SFLcane » Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:23 am

cycloneye wrote:Adrian, I posted the Webb twit already
6 minutes before yours so will deleite it.


Hey! :mad:

Joking no problem my friend. Should be another crazy year
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