Woofde wrote:ACE is useless at telling how active the season has been considering two of the Majors peaked as they were landfalling. Was Larry really a better indication that this season is active than Ida was?
This is why I would love to see a way implemented that measured hurricane season activity with a combination of not only ACE but impact/destruction level. Like an Ida or Michael-like storm would have more of such "points" than say a Larry or Lorenzo-like storm.
'Destruction' in a season has little to do with overall favorability. Dead years have had huge hits, and hyperactive ones nothing. One could argue RI to landfall is indicative of only a small favorable pocket, vs. a long track major suggesting a vast swath of good conditions. ACE is not perfect but it's the best metric we've got.
To shell mound's point:
Shell Mound wrote:I respectfully disagree. One would have expected higher ACE during peak season, given -ENSO/-PDO/+IOD/-VE.
A suppressive period lined up with climo peak. With the base state there are/were plenty of disturbances, most have just struggled with stability & upper level winds tied to that suppression. Intraseasonal variation is probably the weak link in long-range forecasting.
As many have already suggested, this season is looking like another backloaded one. Maybe more of a bimodal peak.