2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1741 Postby blp » Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:24 pm

toad strangler wrote:
blp wrote:Nope, it can show it 10 runs in a row, I won't bite. Need to see another model onboard first. GFS has a long history of phantoms from the Columbian low.


Of course. Relax. There isn't another model that reaches this far out :lol: Nobody is sounding an alarm.


The vorticity starts under 240 on both 12z and 18z which used to be inside reality timeframe. That is why I mentioned it. The CMC and Euro show nada so far. Let's see what happens.
Last edited by blp on Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1742 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:25 pm

toad strangler wrote:
blp wrote:Nope, it can show it 10 runs in a row, I won't bite. Need to see another model onboard first. GFS has a long history of phantoms from the Columbian low.


Of course. Relax. There isn't another model that reaches this far out :lol: Nobody is sounding an alarm.


Just a little excited to see the gfs actually bring a hurricane close to SFL.

Maybe I should frame it :lol:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1743 Postby boca » Fri Sep 24, 2021 8:20 pm

SFLcane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
blp wrote:Nope, it can show it 10 runs in a row, I won't bite. Need to see another model onboard first. GFS has a long history of phantoms from the Columbian low.


Of course. Relax. There isn't another model that reaches this far out :lol: Nobody is sounding an alarm.


Just a little excited to see the gfs actually bring a hurricane close to SFL.

Maybe I should frame it :lol:


It’s pure model porn but first time this season.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1744 Postby Teban54 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:00 am

Unsurprisingly, 0z GFS drops the WCar system and the EPac long-tracker. Also unsurprisingly, the vorticity for the WCar system gets sent into the EPac and develops there at the end of this run.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1745 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:19 am

6z GFS sends the Caribbean system into the FL Keys. Takes a little longer to consolidate so makes it further west before turning NNE. Remains to be seen whether this is a phantom.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1746 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:34 am

Another look at the 06z GFS fantasy range.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1747 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:41 am

Classic October track heading NE into SFL. Again we’ll see if this signal is there a week from now.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1748 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:18 am

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1749 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Sep 25, 2021 7:48 am

So at least there is no random pinup that Sam burps up off the Eastern Seaboard according to the latest GFS. More realistic run imho
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1750 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:11 am

Wait it is just me or is Tropical Tidbits really struggling to get going on my computer?
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1751 Postby boca » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:20 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Wait it is just me or is Tropical Tidbits really struggling to get going on my computer?


I’m having a problem as well on the site.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1752 Postby DioBrando » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:39 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Wait it is just me or is Tropical Tidbits really struggling to get going on my computer?


i feel for you brah, it's messed up on my computer
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1753 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:53 am

Wow latest 12Z GFS not only ends the rainy season for South Florida early but has the westerlies well entrenched across all of the Gulf and Florida. :eek:

Looks like those sub-70 dew points will be arriving across metro SE Florida starting tomorrow and will last for a while with an abnormally dry airmass for this time of year.

Image

Long-range with strong westerly shear:

Image
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1754 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 25, 2021 12:02 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wow latest 12Z GFS not only ends the rainy season for South Florida early but has the westerlies well entrenched across all of the Gulf and Florida. :eek:

Looks like those sub-70 dew points will be arriving across metro SE Florida starting tomorrow and will last for a while with an abnormally dry airmass for this time of year.

https://i.postimg.cc/7Lcjhx61/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh0-168.gif

Long-range with strong westerly shear:

https://i.postimg.cc/wvBfXMfR/gfs-shear-watl-fh204-264.gif


I feel it’s going to be the same pattern as 2020, had Eta not been engulfed in Continental Dry Air it would have been a lot stronger as it neared SE Florida...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1755 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 12:08 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wow latest 12Z GFS not only ends the rainy season for South Florida early but has the westerlies well entrenched across all of the Gulf and Florida. :eek:

Looks like those sub-70 dew points will be arriving across metro SE Florida starting tomorrow and will last for a while with an abnormally dry airmass for this time of year.

https://i.postimg.cc/7Lcjhx61/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh0-168.gif

Long-range with strong westerly shear:

https://i.postimg.cc/wvBfXMfR/gfs-shear-watl-fh204-264.gif

The GFS showing this 240+ out is the equivalent to a cat 4 into miami.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1756 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Sep 25, 2021 12:09 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wow latest 12Z GFS not only ends the rainy season for South Florida early but has the westerlies well entrenched across all of the Gulf and Florida. :eek:

Looks like those sub-70 dew points will be arriving across metro SE Florida starting tomorrow and will last for a while with an abnormally dry airmass for this time of year.

https://i.postimg.cc/7Lcjhx61/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh0-168.gif

Long-range with strong westerly shear:

https://i.postimg.cc/wvBfXMfR/gfs-shear-watl-fh204-264.gif


The GFS likes to exaggerate wind shear.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1757 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 25, 2021 12:15 pm

:uarrow: I agree, the GFS is likely overdoing the shear and dry air at least in the long-range. Likely will completely change in the next run.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1758 Postby DioBrando » Sat Sep 25, 2021 12:23 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Wow latest 12Z GFS not only ends the rainy season for South Florida early but has the westerlies well entrenched across all of the Gulf and Florida. :eek:

Looks like those sub-70 dew points will be arriving across metro SE Florida starting tomorrow and will last for a while with an abnormally dry airmass for this time of year.

https://i.postimg.cc/7Lcjhx61/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh0-168.gif

Long-range with strong westerly shear:

https://i.postimg.cc/wvBfXMfR/gfs-shear-watl-fh204-264.gif


The GFS likes to exaggerate wind shear.

this tbh
and the worst offender is the CFS
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1759 Postby psyclone » Sat Sep 25, 2021 12:32 pm

gatorcane wrote::uarrow: I agree, the GFS is likely overdoing the shear and dry air at least in the long-range. Likely will completely change in the next run.


What's noteworthy though is the extent to which Fall has been pressing into the southeast early this year. the current push of dry air is the 3rd time in september that dry, refreshing air has flooded the southeast US and these pushes are getting stronger. It's been a really nice September in places like Atlanta and Charlotte and even Savannah. It makes the GFS depiction more believable. The arrival of Autumn often runs interference for areas at higher late season risk and that may happen this year. definitely something to watch
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1760 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:03 pm

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