2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
WiscoWx02
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 151
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:09 pm
Location: Wisconsin

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3621 Postby WiscoWx02 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:08 pm

Good ole 2020. Don't look at the 18Z GFS run if you wanna keep your sanity by the way. Crazy thing is I kinda believe it. Could be a super busy October with that MJO swinging in that is far darn sure.
1 likes   

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1653
Age: 20
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Phoenix AZ

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3622 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:23 pm

I seriously have this weird gut feeling based on some of the modeling that 2021 could tie or even beat 2005 and/or 2020 in NS count. Bold of me to say, I know, but the VP pattern for October looks extremely favorable. November is a wild card though.
2 likes   

User avatar
DioBrando
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 713
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm
Location: Chad

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3623 Postby DioBrando » Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:52 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I seriously have this weird gut feeling based on some of the modeling that 2021 could tie or even beat 2005 and/or 2020 in NS count. Bold of me to say, I know, but the VP pattern for October looks extremely favorable. November is a wild card though.

I think it will tbh ngl.
0 likes   
"With proper strengthening techniques, can an ugly subtropical storm become a Category 5?"

User avatar
Zonacane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 104
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:23 pm

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3624 Postby Zonacane » Tue Sep 28, 2021 8:19 am

WiscoWx02 wrote:


:eek: More and more pronounced of a single as we get closer to October. Definitely having a bad case of deja vu seeing the models show an anticyclone parked over the Caribbean in about a week or two. Very reminiscent of another season I could mention

That kind of forcing screams a congo line of major hurricanes
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 125352
Age: 65
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3625 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 28, 2021 8:20 am

2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1828
Age: 22
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3627 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:06 am

The Atlantic Niño has likely played a role in the low-latitude MDR developments we've seen this year.
 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1442843142676434955


0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
zal0phus
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 69
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:32 am
Location: Illinois and Ohio
Contact:

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3628 Postby zal0phus » Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:15 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:I seriously have this weird gut feeling based on some of the modeling that 2021 could tie or even beat 2005 and/or 2020 in NS count. Bold of me to say, I know, but the VP pattern for October looks extremely favorable. November is a wild card though.

I agree. I think it'll become the second-most-active behind 2020 by two or three storms or so, October will be a rush of successive Caribbean majors I feel like.
1 likes   
And it all comes tumbling down, tumbling down, tumbling down...
And I just keep letting me down, letting me down, letting me down...

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 17247
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3629 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:27 am

Two seasons are rarely similar. If we do get more formation in the eastern Atlantic in the next week or so that will be the outstanding feature of 2021 and might also indicate we won't have much in the western Atlantic this year. If we have both then the year will really be one to remember. Right now I see nothing to indicate the season will shut down in October, but the years it has have always surprised us, so we shall see.
4 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6192
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3630 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:44 pm

We might have to watch out for sleeper wave development in the October 10-20th range, when that massive enhanced CCKW comes in. There’ll be a bit of a suppressed period after 90L and 91L, so any ways that come off after those two could make it all the way to the western half of the basin and suddenly find much more favorable conditions when the enhanced phase arrives. Ubuntwo also mentioned this possibility in the models thread.

The early October slumber period and other weak suppressive Kelvin Waves could prevent 2021 from having a late season on par with 2020. However, this is a Nina year and the Caribbean is getting to 2020 levels of warmth, so I think it’s very likely there will be at least one Caribbean major during the next 4-6 weeks.
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida ‘21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5097
Age: 38
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3631 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:56 pm

CFS continues to largely show little to nothing in the Caribbean through the remainder of the season, so this may very well end up like 2004 or 2017 where the bulk of the activity occurs in the mid-portion of the season.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1203
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3632 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:11 pm

This is quite important to note: almost all +AMO years with cool-neutral ENSO, La Nina, or moderate La Nina feature major hurricane activity in October.

2020: Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta
2017: Ophelia
2016: Nicole
2011: Rina
2008: Omar
2005: Wilma and Beta
2001: Iris
1995: Roxanne

2021 is almost certainly going feature a La Nina, and it has and will almost certainly continue to feature a +AMO.
Last edited by AlphaToOmega on Tue Sep 28, 2021 4:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
3 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 591
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3633 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:46 pm

It looks increasingly likely that 90L will become Victor, and 91L will not form and be absorbed by 90L. If 90L gets named by September 30, then September 2021 will have 9 named storms (Larry became a TS on Aug 31 but was only named on Sep 1).

This would have broken the old record for the most number of named storms in any month before 2020. The record for September was 8 storms in 2002, 2007 and 2010. Furthermore, all these years have relatively similar modern technology as we have today to detect named storms, and subtropical storms received names from the main naming list since 2002, so the naming criteria are rather similar with these seasons. Of course, 2020 smashed the record by having 10 storms in September.

And this is during a month mostly dominated by suppressed MJO/CCKW.
0 likes   

User avatar
DioBrando
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 713
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm
Location: Chad

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3634 Postby DioBrando » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:52 pm

Hammy wrote:CFS continues to largely show little to nothing in the Caribbean through the remainder of the season, so this may very well end up like 2004 or 2017 where the bulk of the activity occurs in the mid-portion of the season.


CFS is mostly rubbish at predicting activity accurately or near-accurately these days.
0 likes   
"With proper strengthening techniques, can an ugly subtropical storm become a Category 5?"

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1653
Age: 20
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Phoenix AZ

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3635 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 28, 2021 4:39 pm

Image

Under the right conditions otherwise, assuming this sst profile persists or strengthens going into early October, I seriously think we are going to need to watch that potential WCAR system. This is clearly a thermodynamic situation that you do not want to see.
3 likes   

MarioProtVI
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:33 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3636 Postby MarioProtVI » Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:26 pm

Hammy wrote:CFS continues to largely show little to nothing in the Caribbean through the remainder of the season, so this may very well end up like 2004 or 2017 where the bulk of the activity occurs in the mid-portion of the season.

CFS completely botched September’s MDR so I am not confident in that forecast at all.
1 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5097
Age: 38
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3637 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:30 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:
Hammy wrote:CFS continues to largely show little to nothing in the Caribbean through the remainder of the season, so this may very well end up like 2004 or 2017 where the bulk of the activity occurs in the mid-portion of the season.

CFS completely botched September’s MDR so I am not confident in that forecast at all.



CFS was actually very accurate with the MDR--it showed two long-lasting storms and mostly weaker storms coming out of it other than that.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1203
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3638 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:33 pm

Hammy wrote:
MarioProtVI wrote:
Hammy wrote:CFS continues to largely show little to nothing in the Caribbean through the remainder of the season, so this may very well end up like 2004 or 2017 where the bulk of the activity occurs in the mid-portion of the season.

CFS completely botched September’s MDR so I am not confident in that forecast at all.



CFS was actually very accurate with the MDR--it showed two long-lasting storms and mostly weaker storms coming out of it other than that.


Is it accurate with the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean? Usually, the MDR slows down in October, with most late season activity occurring in the Western Atlantic.
0 likes   

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1203
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3639 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:41 pm

tolakram wrote:Two seasons are rarely similar. If we do get more formation in the eastern Atlantic in the next week or so that will be the outstanding feature of 2021 and might also indicate we won't have much in the western Atlantic this year. If we have both then the year will really be one to remember. Right now I see nothing to indicate the season will shut down in October, but the years it has have always surprised us, so we shall see.


1995 would like to have a word :D
5 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5097
Age: 38
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3640 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 28, 2021 7:07 pm

Some additional notes on the CFS, I've found some earlier posts (which I wish I'd bookmarked for quicker searching)

September 17:
Hammy wrote:CFS performed remarkably well 2-3 months out for September, showing 1-2 long trackers (as we could still have a second) with mostly weaker storms over the open Atlantic (no clue on GoM as the maps consistently wouldn't load)


From September 3:
Hammy wrote:Recent CFS runs seem to indicate a quiet period, possibly little to nothing new forming for the rest of early to mid-September, at least over the Atlantic ocean itself--something it's been hinting at since July (unfortunately the GoM/Caribbean maps are still having issues loading) but it's showing another burst of activity the last third of September, and continues to show the MDR producing storms into October, with varying intensity from run to run.


Nothing formed in the MDR at all after Larry until September 19. And now we've had three more storms, possibly a fourth soon, with that second longer-lasting hurricane.

August 29:
aspen wrote:
Hammy wrote:CFS model from several weeks ago seems like it nailed the trend--Western Caribbean/Gulf is where the show is with some recurves otherwise.

One of the runs from late July correctly predicted a big storm in the Gulf during the last days of August, which has verified in the form of Ida.



AlphaToOmega wrote:
Hammy wrote:
MarioProtVI wrote:CFS completely botched September’s MDR so I am not confident in that forecast at all.



CFS was actually very accurate with the MDR--it showed two long-lasting storms and mostly weaker storms coming out of it other than that.


Is it accurate with the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean? Usually, the MDR slows down in October, with most late season activity occurring in the Western Atlantic.



It correctly showed Ida weeks out, but the Gulf map availability was also sporadic, as half the time they didn't load at all beyond a few weeks.
5 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: blp, Google Adsense [Bot] and 45 guests