2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2301 Postby skyline385 » Fri Oct 22, 2021 11:52 pm

Never trust a long range GFS run unless it is supported by multiple ensemble members, cause otherwise it's just one possibility out of hundreds...
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2302 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:01 am

The wave is slightly further north and better defined on the 06z operational GFS, but it still fails to develop. 00z GEFS ensembles remain quite active; the 06z GEFS hasn’t loaded yet.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2303 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:41 am

The 06Z GEFS ensembles still develop a Western Caribbean storm around October 30-31, a storm in the subtropics around October 26, and a Cape Verde storm around October 29-30. The 00Z ECENS ensembles also still develop a Western Caribbean storm and a Cape Verde storm around the same times as the GEFS, but it does not develop a storm in the subtropics.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2304 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:28 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:The 06Z GEFS ensembles still develop a Western Caribbean storm around October 30-31, a storm in the subtropics around October 26, and a Cape Verde storm around October 29-30. The 00Z ECENS ensembles also still develop a Western Caribbean storm and a Cape Verde storm around the same times as the GEFS, but it does not develop a storm in the subtropics.

Saying ensembles “develop” or not rather defeats the point. They allow for a probabilistic approach which is much more valuable. For example ~50% of 6z GEFS members have Caribbean development compared to ~70% on yesterday’s 12z.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2305 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:09 pm

What is it with the GFS's 12z runs loving to show nothing as opposed to the 6z, 18z, and 0z runs?
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2306 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:33 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:What is it with the GFS's 12z runs loving to show nothing as opposed to the 6z, 18z, and 0z runs?

Does not gain enough latitude to develop. Which the models agree on for once. South displaced ITCZ means disturbances hardly make it into the Caribbean if at all. Could develop Pacific side too.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2307 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:45 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:What is it with the GFS's 12z runs loving to show nothing as opposed to the 6z, 18z, and 0z runs?

Does not gain enough latitude to develop. Which the models agree on for once. South displaced ITCZ means disturbances hardly make it into the Caribbean if at all. Could develop Pacific side too.
https://imgur.com/KEvQcxN


Idk, ridging this year has not seemed to be quite strong, so I am personally skeptical to see that sort of solution pan out that just presses the wave too far to the south and enters the Pacific instead
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2308 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:56 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Idk, ridging this year has not seemed to be quite strong, so I am personally skeptical to see that sort of solution pan out that just presses the wave too far to the south and enters the Pacific instead

Caribbean ridging has been stout through October. That shift southward in heights is one factor in the end of a season. I believe this also contributes to the strong upper level winds across the Gulf. Here is the Euro height anomalies analysis:
Image

So it will take a properly timed and oriented trough, dipping quite far south, to permit development.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2309 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 23, 2021 1:18 pm

Bruh the CMC and ICON are showing another EPac system. How on Earth is the East Pacific suddenly being favored during a La Niña October when it has struggled all year prior to this? The lack of anything else on the models in the Atlantic just seemingly defies what is expected of a La Niña and a positive MJO phase. It’s like having two July Atlantic hurricanes and zero EPac storms in July during an El Niño.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2310 Postby Spacecoast » Sat Oct 23, 2021 1:54 pm

12z Shear, and RH.... showing (perhaps) not ideal conditions above 20N early Nov? idk

Image
Image
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2311 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:28 pm

1. The 12Z EPS is now back to being boring (which is great as I don't want to see anything like the disasterous Nov of 2020.
2. The HH GEFS has W Car action but it has slipped back in time a few days.
3. thus, the chances of a W Car TC in early Nov have decreased for now imo.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2312 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:42 pm

LarryWx wrote:1. The 12Z EPS is now back to being boring (which is great as I don't want to see anything like the disasterous Nov of 2020.
2. The HH GEFS has W Car action but it has slipped back in time a few days.
3. thus, the chances of a W Car TC in early Nov have decreased for now imo.

inb4 this becomes a November EPac major to continue flexing on the Atlantic.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2313 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:34 pm

LarryWx wrote:1. The 12Z EPS is now back to being boring (which is great as I don't want to see anything like the disasterous Nov of 2020.
2. The HH GEFS has W Car action but it has slipped back in time a few days.
3. thus, the chances of a W Car TC in early Nov have decreased for now imo.


“For now” is the key, of course. CPC Hazards still shows a moderate chance that we see something form there two weeks from now
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2314 Postby Spacecoast » Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:46 am

ECMF ensembles finally showing possible WCAR genesis after many weeks of non activity.
(GEFS ensembles have not, and still do not show genesis on Alan Brammer's site)
Thin black line is median.
Image


NAV showing 31% genesis of lemon in 114 hours, the other operationals don't indicate this yet..
Image
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2315 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:38 pm

Those are some strong GEFS ensembles in the WCAR :double:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2316 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 24, 2021 2:09 pm

FWIW, both of today’s CMC runs show the wave briefly becoming a TC before making landfall in Costa Rica. The 12z GFS spins it up in the EPac instead.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2317 Postby blp » Sun Oct 24, 2021 8:40 pm

The GEFS continues to disagree with the Ops run not showing the EPAC system and actually showing some strong members. The GEPS also is showing development on the W Caribbean side versus the CMC Ops. Lots of disagreement. I don't think the EPAC has the best conditions to pull out another one.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2318 Postby jconsor » Mon Oct 25, 2021 4:32 am

The GEFS genesis plots on Brammer's site are broken for the time being. You can verify that by noting that the EPac Genesis map is also blank.

Spacecoast wrote:ECMF ensembles finally showing possible WCAR genesis after many weeks of non activity.
(GEFS ensembles have not, and still do not show genesis on Alan Brammer's site)
Thin black line is median.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/FX5MRTY/frcsta6.jpg [/url]


NAV showing 31% genesis of lemon in 114 hours, the other operationals don't indicate this yet..
[url]https://i.ibb.co/jHQpMwm/frcsta7.jpg [/url]
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2319 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:24 am

The GEFS, CMC, and ICON have some support for two additional TCs this weekend (Oct30-Nov1) — something forming in the SWCar like Otto ‘16, and a very late MDR system. Anything in the MDR will likely be extremely weak and might not even hit TS status, similar to TD15 in 2019.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2320 Postby Teban54 » Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:59 am

aspen wrote:The GEFS, CMC, and ICON have some support for two additional TCs this weekend (Oct30-Nov1) — something forming in the SWCar like Otto ‘16, and a very late MDR system. Anything in the MDR will likely be extremely weak and might not even hit TS status, similar to TD15 in 2019.

Throwback to 2018:
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1049670529680953344


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