2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[weeniepatrol]

Ya especially West Caribbean. Nothing to upwell but more warm water

[Cpv17]

Ya especially West Caribbean. Nothing to upwell but more warm water

I feel like the western Caribbean is like that every year. Seems like it always has the most OHC.

[skyline385]

Extended EPS starting to show more signals as the MJO almost parks itself over the NATL although the potential for an EPAC system instead based on climo always remains.

[Deshaunrob17]

What’s impressive to me is how unusually wet it has been in the NE Caribbean . Several instances of significant flooding in the traditionally dry season. Even more impressive is , El Niño dry seasons usually mean drought in this part of this part of Caribbean. I won’t be surprised if the record ocean temperatures is a major cause of this. It shows the power of the very warm
Ocean temperatures and why the region needs to prepare for the upcoming Hurricane/ Wet Season.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1790699086087176236

[SFLcane]

[WeatherBoy2000]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1790699086087176236?t=TIwt67v4ERLbJDWv3wwgkQ&s=19

Interestingly, if we don't see any activity beyond the first week of June it would make 2024 the latest starting season since 2014. Of course something might quickly spin up in the meantime, but atm there's nothing to indicate any May activity.

[cycloneye]

Atlantic MDR very warm compared to the rest of the global tropics.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1790699086087176236?t=TIwt67v4ERLbJDWv3wwgkQ&s=19

Interestingly, if we don't see any activity beyond the first week of June it would make 2024 the latest starting season since 2014. Of course something might quickly spin up in the meantime, but atm there's nothing to indicate any May activity.

In the "for what it's worth" column, while taking a look at the top 10 ACE producing Atlantic hurricane season years - 8 of 10 seasons had the first named storm after June 1.

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1790699086087176236?t=TIwt67v4ERLbJDWv3wwgkQ&s=19

Interestingly, if we don't see any activity beyond the first week of June it would make 2024 the latest starting season since 2014. Of course something might quickly spin up in the meantime, but atm there's nothing to indicate any May activity.

Some of the most hyperactive seasons typically have had June or even later starts. It's very likely because of the cooler sub-tropics which set up for the classical +AMO config (2004, 2005, 2008, 2010) preventing random spin-ups near the coast, generally responsible for early season starts. The same cooler sub-tropics then provide a more favorable environment in regards to instability over the MDR once the season gets going.

[chaser1]

Speaking of near-term conditions for potential cyclone development -


000
ABNT20 KNHC 151127
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Today, May 15th, marks the first day of routine issuance of the
Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2024. This product
describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their
potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven
days. The Tropical Weather Outlook is issued from May 15 through
November 30 each year. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM,
8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in
November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A graphical version of the Tropical Weather Outlook is available on
the web at: https://www.hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake

[WeatherBoy2000]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1790699086087176236?t=TIwt67v4ERLbJDWv3wwgkQ&s=19

Interestingly, if we don't see any activity beyond the first week of June it would make 2024 the latest starting season since 2014. Of course something might quickly spin up in the meantime, but atm there's nothing to indicate any May activity.

Some of the most hyperactive seasons typically have had June or even later starts. It's very likely because of the cooler sub-tropics which set up for the classical +AMO config (2004, 2005, 2008, 2010) preventing random spin-ups near the coast, generally responsible for early season starts. The same cooler sub-tropics then provide a more favorable environment in regards to instability over the MDR once the season gets going.

I never tried to imply that this season would be less active with my comment, I thought it was just something interesting to point out. If 2017 didn't have that fluke of an April storm, then the season would've started after June 15th. Funnily enough, this year nearly had an April storm as well. Even if we don't see a storm in May or even June, I bet we'll still have an extremely active season once it truly gets going.

[skyline385]

Interestingly, if we don't see any activity beyond the first week of June it would make 2024 the latest starting season since 2014. Of course something might quickly spin up in the meantime, but atm there's nothing to indicate any May activity.

Some of the most hyperactive seasons typically have had June or even later starts. It's very likely because of the cooler sub-tropics which set up for the classical +AMO config (2004, 2005, 2008, 2010) preventing random spin-ups near the coast, generally responsible for early season starts. The same cooler sub-tropics then provide a more favorable environment in regards to instability over the MDR once the season gets going.

I never tried to imply that this season would be less active with my comment, I thought it was just something interesting to point out. If 2017 didn't have that fluke of an April storm, then the season would've started after June 15th. Funnily enough, this year nearly had an April storm as well. Even if we don't see a storm in May or even June, I bet we'll still have an extremely active season once it truly gets going.

It's all good, I never took your comment to imply that we might have a less active season. I just wanted to point out how the colder sub-tropics might be responsible for the slower start like they have in some of the previous hyperactive seasons.

Also regarding the potential April storm, we also had one more chance before it where models were showing a hybrid warm core for a cut-off sub-tropical low drifting south near Bermuda. However, it failed to develop any convection and went relatively unnoticed.

[chaser1]

Taking a look at the GFS 6Z upper air. Both the 200 MB, and the 200MB - 850MB Wind Shear has strong westerlies ripping through the GOM & Caribbean. Then starting at about 268 hrs there's one big LARGE & IN-CHARGE anticyclone that continues to expand over the E. Caribbean, extending north of the Greater Antilles. This would typically be a tad east for Climo but this large upper High appears to migrate west by May 31st. This appears to be the first signs i'm seeing of a transitioning upper pattern.

We're fast approaching a busy season with only 17 days to go. Join the tailgate and "throw down" your 2024 Poll best guess!

[cycloneye]

Taking a look at the GFS 6Z upper air. Both the 200 MB, and the 200MB - 850MB Wind Shear has strong westerlies ripping through the GOM & Caribbean. Then starting at about 268 hrs there's one big LARGE & IN-CHARGE anticyclone that continues to expand over the E. Caribbean, extending north of the Greater Antilles. This would typically be a tad east for Climo but this large upper High appears to migrate west by May 31st. This appears to be the first signs i'm seeing of a transitioning upper pattern.

We're fast approaching a busy season with only 17 days to go. Join the tailgate and "throw down" your 2024 Poll best guess!

https://imgur.com/zJHLQZL

Thanks for the promotion.

[IsabelaWeather]

What’s impressive to me is how unusually wet it has been in the NE Caribbean . Several instances of significant flooding in the traditionally dry season. Even more impressive is , El Niño dry seasons usually mean drought in this part of this part of Caribbean. I won’t be surprised if the record ocean temperatures is a major cause of this. It shows the power of the very warm
Ocean temperatures and why the region needs to prepare for the upcoming Hurricane/ Wet Season.

At least as far as PR goes, this is incorrect. El Nino's actually increase dry season precip, it just makes the wet season drier. La nina is reverse, dryer dry season, wetter wet season.

https://www.weather.gov/sju/climo_enso

[LarryWx]

Keep in mind that wetter/cloudier in subtropical/tropical regions tends to bring down SSTs vs how they’d be in drier/sunnier periods due largely to cooling the air above the waters.
I’ve seen this around S FL/Keys in recent years.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1790835513366139269




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1790839605362606459

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1790575848203972644

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1790575848203972644?s=19

I'm fairly confident that there's a chance we'll see a storm(s) that takes an Irma or Georges-like track this season.