Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU update on June 11

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WeatherBoy2000
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: Weather Channel new forecast=25/12/6

#161 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Thu May 16, 2024 10:30 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Weather Channel increases the numbers from the last update.

https://i.imgur.com/prSxR3Z.jpeg

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... 13yOgjhlLZ


Cause 1983 as an analog makes any sense? :roll:


I think they picked 1983 because 1983 was a decent La Nina year that occurred after a strong El Nino. Those analog years are merely picked based on ENSO base state, I think. Beyond that, there are hardly any similarities with 2024, especially given how absurdly warm we are now.


But when talking about Atlantic activity, it's pretty important to factor in the Atlantic when choosing analogs imo.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: Weather Channel new forecast=25/12/6

#162 Postby crownweather » Thu May 16, 2024 12:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:Weather Channel increases the numbers from the last update.

https://i.imgur.com/prSxR3Z.jpeg

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... 13yOgjhlLZ


I think they copied my forecast from back in March. :wink: :D

Image
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: Weather Channel new forecast=25/12/6

#163 Postby Blown Away » Thu May 16, 2024 7:15 pm

crownweather wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Weather Channel increases the numbers from the last update.

https://i.imgur.com/prSxR3Z.jpeg

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... 13yOgjhlLZ


I think they copied my forecast from back in March. :wink: :D

https://crownweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2024forecast.png


Why did you cut off the GOM Very High at Alabama? Seems this setup with strong Nina HP would favor systems moving farther W between Miss to TX before turning N? Just curious. Thank you for the detailed forecast!! 8-)
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: Weather Channel new forecast=25/12/6

#164 Postby Cpv17 » Thu May 16, 2024 9:07 pm

Blown Away wrote:
crownweather wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Weather Channel increases the numbers from the last update.

https://i.imgur.com/prSxR3Z.jpeg

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... 13yOgjhlLZ


I think they copied my forecast from back in March. :wink: :D

https://crownweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2024forecast.png


Why did you cut off the GOM Very High at Alabama? Seems this setup with strong Nina HP would favor systems moving farther W between Miss to TX before turning N? Just curious. Thank you for the detailed forecast!! 8-)


Yeah, I believe his forecast is the eastern most one I’ve seen.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: NOAA will be up on May 23rd

#165 Postby skyline385 » Sun May 19, 2024 7:00 pm

Levi released a season outlook this year



Link: https://youtu.be/QFID_jfNId4
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: NOAA will be up on May 23rd

#166 Postby toad strangler » Sun May 19, 2024 8:37 pm

skyline385 wrote:Levi released a season outlook this year

https://youtu.be/QFID_jfNId4


The FSU alum calling it from the central Pacific in Hawaii. Great watch packed with pertinent info.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: NOAA will be up on May 23rd

#167 Postby chaser1 » Mon May 20, 2024 1:14 am

I really do enjoy listening to Levi but just to be fair, I did not hear Levi make any observation or add fresh perspective that added to the existing overall conversation
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: NOAA will be up on May 23rd

#168 Postby tolakram » Mon May 20, 2024 7:16 pm

chaser1 wrote:I really do enjoy listening to Levi but just to be fair, I did not hear Levi make any observation or add fresh perspective that added to the existing overall conversation


I really enjoy the maps and the discussion, in a calm and explanatory manner that is some of the best I've watched so far. I think he adds greatly to the conversation as far as bringing easily understandable explanations to the broader public.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: NOAA will be up on May 23rd

#169 Postby chaser1 » Tue May 21, 2024 12:18 am

tolakram wrote:
chaser1 wrote:I really do enjoy listening to Levi but just to be fair, I did not hear Levi make any observation or add fresh perspective that added to the existing overall conversation


I really enjoy the maps and the discussion, in a calm and explanatory manner that is some of the best I've watched so far. I think he adds greatly to the conversation as far as bringing easily understandable explanations to the broader public.


Absolutely, Levi most certainly DOES best convey the topic to the broader public! In fact, I think Levi is probably the most well-spoken and thorough video source on the web in terms of disseminating the tropics as a whole, as well as his in-season updates on particular tropical disturbances and storms. My statement was not a judgement regarding the value of his efforts to the general public and certainly not a critique of his delivery or his message. My statement simply addressed that I did not hear Levi offer any "newsworthy" message, unique perspective, or updated anecdotal data that moved the needle or added a new wrinkle regarding the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season (relative to what many other forum posters & respected professionals quoted on social media had been addressing for weeks now).
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: NOAA will be up on May 23rd

#170 Postby Steve » Tue May 21, 2024 8:17 am

tolakram wrote:
chaser1 wrote:I really do enjoy listening to Levi but just to be fair, I did not hear Levi make any observation or add fresh perspective that added to the existing overall conversation


I really enjoy the maps and the discussion, in a calm and explanatory manner that is some of the best I've watched so far. I think he adds greatly to the conversation as far as bringing easily understandable explanations to the broader public.


He's one of the best. But like everyone who posts, he says "quite" too much. haha. Love some Levi.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: NOAA will be up next thursday

#171 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 21, 2024 11:32 am

WeatherTiger comes out on Wednesday.

 https://x.com/wx_tiger/status/1792950550348120416


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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: WeatherTiger at 11 AM / NOAA will be up tomorrow

#172 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 22, 2024 9:20 am

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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: WeatherTiger at 11 AM / NOAA will be up tomorrow

#173 Postby StPeteMike » Wed May 22, 2024 9:35 am


Nothing to worry about…… lol
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: WeatherTiger at 11 AM / NOAA will be up tomorrow

#174 Postby ChrisH-UK » Wed May 22, 2024 9:41 am

UK Met Office has released their forecast for the 2024 season. 22 Named storms, 12 Hurricanes, 4 Major Hurricanes and a ACE of 212

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2024

Image
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: WeatherTiger at 11 AM / NOAA will be up tomorrow

#175 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed May 22, 2024 9:50 am



Iirc aren't they one of the more conservative forecasting agencies? Man this is going to be an epic season.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: WeatherTiger / NOAA will be up tomorrow

#176 Postby toad strangler » Wed May 22, 2024 10:03 am

Weather Tiger opened it's update stating 90% odds of a hyperactive year amongst the top dozen since 1950.

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/3ab943a0-d17f-485b-9954-84c49d95a1c4
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: WeatherTiger / NOAA will be up tomorrow

#177 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed May 22, 2024 10:30 am

toad strangler wrote:Weather Tiger opened it's update stating 90% odds of a hyperactive year amongst the top dozen since 1950.

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/3ab943a0-d17f-485b-9954-84c49d95a1c4

Love a weather article that opens
"I am not trying to scare you."
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: WeatherTiger= 90% Hyperactive season / UKMET also up

#178 Postby Teban54 » Wed May 22, 2024 12:20 pm

Opening bids by the Weather Tiger real-time ACE forecast tool are high:
Image
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: WeatherTiger= 90% Hyperactive season / UKMET also up

#179 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed May 22, 2024 12:34 pm

Teban54 wrote:Opening bids by the Weather Tiger real-time ACE forecast tool are high:
https://i.postimg.cc/mDk4j2Mx/image.png


You know it's bad when the chance of "above average" is 5% and when the chances of "near normal" and "below normal" sum up to nearly 0%.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: WeatherTiger / NOAA will be up tomorrow

#180 Postby TheAustinMan » Wed May 22, 2024 12:40 pm

toad strangler wrote:Weather Tiger opened it's update stating 90% odds of a hyperactive year amongst the top dozen since 1950.

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/3ab943a0-d17f-485b-9954-84c49d95a1c4


This probability is essentially an exact match to the inferred odds of a hyperactive year based on the guesses in the Storm2K poll (89.9% of guesses project a hyperactive season).
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