Possible subtropical storm in central atl (Is invest 95L)

[TheEuropean]

A strong system in the central atlantic may become a subtropical system in the next few days:


(Sep. 27th, 0600Z, University of Dundee)

[Chacor]

Still very frontal now.

[TheEuropean]

Still very frontal now.

Yes, but it may become a subtropical system in the next few days and this low is something to watch.

[HURAKAN]

It must be watched. I won't be surprised if it becomes Laura at some point in the next few days.

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It must be watched. I won't be surprised if it becomes Laura at some point in the next few days.

IT will have to be a tropical storm with deep convection over its self, because the nhc could not drive their selfs to upgrade a tropical storm 94L that hit the east coast of the godforsaken united states. Believe me I will not try to guess what they are going to do with this...That is trustfulness from me. I wish Max Mayfield would come back, Because I miss him!

[Derek Ortt]

and how do you know it was a TC that hit the Carolinas, Matt?

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 271739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KYLE...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERNMOST AZORES. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[terrapintransit]

The NHC is on to it now..............

[Crostorm]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

and how do you know it was a TC that hit the Carolinas, Matt?

Are you kidding me Derek? 7c temperature difference between the inner and outter. That means a warm core, also banding were forming on the radar. This had everything a tropical storm has besides the intense convection over the center. I know you have a job to defend, but come on, you can not be seriously saying that this was not at the least a boardline case if not all the way. Your a researcher I believe, so I would like to see what you believe it was.

This system we are talking about now seems to be increasing convection near its center.

[CrazyC83]

It still looks extratropical to me. Moving west-southwest in the northeast Atlantic in September? Now that is weird...

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 272345
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE KYLE...LOCATED ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FALLING...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM YUCATAN.
HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS DIMINISHED. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 475 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERNMOST AZORES. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Category 5]

IT will have to be a tropical storm with deep convection over its self, because the nhc could not drive their selfs to upgrade a tropical storm 94L that hit the east coast of the godforsaken united states. Believe me I will not try to guess what they are going to do with this...That is trustfulness from me. I wish Max Mayfield would come back, Because I miss him!

Weighing credibility here.

NHC vs. Some guy on a message board, advantage NHC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Cat5 check your pm. A stronger reply then I can post on this thread is coming.

As for this it may have a chance. So it is worth watching.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yikes...getting very argumentative in here...


Anyway....this system may slowly go subtropical as the national
hurricane center said at 8 PM saturday.

[TheEuropean]

(Sep., 28th, 06:00 UTC, University of Dundee)

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280606
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KYLE...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE DISORGANIZED
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHWARD AWAY FROM YUCATAN. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA.

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 525 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[Thunder44]

This area wasn't circled on their GE graphics. So we don't know what chances they really given it to develop now. Sounds it's still low though.

[HURAKAN]

Looks really good this morning.

[HURAKAN]