BOC (Is invest 90L)

[Bailey1777]

Anyone know what's going on in the BOC nice flareup?

[HURAKAN]

[Bailey1777]

I remember kfdm saying something about pressures expecting to be lowering in the GOM this week.

[wxman57]

Toward the lower left of that colorized satellite image above you can clearly see a MLC moving westward over central Mexico toward the East Pac. The thunderstorms in the BoC are associated with the northern part of the wave axis. Could be the next East Pac storm, but it's not developing in the BoC because it's already inland.

[lrak]

I see a turning just North of the Yucatan, looks like the GOM is starting its tease again

Now its over the yucatan channel.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.49 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.32 in ( Falling Rapidly )


ACK invisible HURRICANE with no wind

[South Texas Storms]

hmm is this the same system right now that the cmc spins up into a tc and has it hitting northern mexico in 132 hours?
it also looks like the 12z euro and the 18z NAM have been hinting at an increase in vorticity and possible surface low forming in about 5 days.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

whats going on with these buoys? The pressures are whacKed?

[LaBreeze]

First "official" cool front is due any day now - nothing heading to the Gulf Coast.

[blazess556]

18z gfs shows a low in the general area.

[South Texas Storms]

18z gfs shows a low in the general area.

yep you beat me to it blazess. 18z gfs shows a low forming in the boc and moves it slowly northwest into northern mexico. the cmc has also been hinting at this in its last few runs as well.

[South Texas Storms]

00z nam on board.

[Wx_Warrior]

[BigA]

Basically almost every model is developing a low down here in the 2-3 day timeframe. Given that we're near the statistical peak, I think there is a solid chance what we'll get a weak tropical storm out of it.

[Portastorm]

A number of forecast discussions this afternoon out of South Texas NWS weather offices are alluding to possible surface low formation and a tropical system spinning up next week in this area. Definitely bears watching!

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES
EAST-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
FORM NEAR THE CENTER...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BE RE-INITIATED ON
THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[supercane]

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM
VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 26N88W ALONG 22N93W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W.
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W AND EXTENDING AN AXIS NNW TO
OVER S GEORGIA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGING FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
29N87W TO 20N93W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
20N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO E OF 95W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE E HALF U.S. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...S MISSISSIPPI...TO JUST INLAND ALONG
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ALONG 27N96W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO NEAR 24N98W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF SURFACE TROUGH.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATER THIS MORNING
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE...AS THE S GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E
CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MOVES NW TO OVER MEXICO.

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS. 72 hours

[ColinDelia]

[KWT]

Models seem pretty agressive on a quick fire system developing in the BoC and there is alot of convection down there so I see no reason why that can't happen to be honest...

[ColinDelia]