Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 96L)

[Sanibel]

What's that trough-like feature in the Central Atlantic?

[AJC3]

What's that trough-like feature in the Central Atlantic?

A tropical wave interacting with very strong, highly divergent shear, associated with an upper level trough.

[beoumont]

Yea, and it has that "typical" appearance of one of those October easterly waves with a large cloud signature that slowly makes its way across undeveloped - and once in a while one of these will finally develop in the Caribbean when it finds upper air more conducive. But, then again, this is 2013.

[cycloneye]

There are two waves interacting with an upper trough in the Central Atlantic but you never know if conditions turn better down the road as both move west so post away your comments about them. I am focusing more on wave behind which is pouch 41L.


P41L
14N, 41W
925 hPa


ECMWF: A pouch only in the analysis. After 12 hours, an OW max initially on the SE side of the pouch becomes the only persistent remnant, and it tracks to the northwest and recurves.

GFS: Like ECMWF, with the switch to the OW max that is initially to the SE occurs after 24 hours, and the OW max is stronger than in ECMWF.

UKMET: Similar to GFS, but not as strong.

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN: Similar to the other models, with the shift toward the eastern portion after 36 hours. Remnant OW max in the other models is a pouch in HWRF-GEN. Rather than recurve, P41L stalls in the subtropical ridge on Day 5.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P41L.html





8 AM Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N42W TO 10N40W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE WAVE S OF 15N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE
WAVE.

[floridasun78]

that one by 40 west? look like getting spin to it

[Dean4Storms]

Looking a bit more impressive this morning.

[Sanibel]

Has late bloomer written all over it.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[floridasun78]

this most like be on outlook at 2pm or 8pm unless nhc think too much shear ahead or some thing else

[floridasun78]

ABNT20 KNHC 261743
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS
IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HurricaneTracker2031]

In my opinion, this could development but in the long term... and I mean long term.

[wxman57]

I think it may have a fair chance of developing within 72 hrs. Should be passing well north of the Caribbean and out to sea, though.

[hurricanes1234]

What type of storm could we be looking at here? A weak and short-lived TS or a stronger system?

[wxman57]

What type of storm could we be looking at here? A weak and short-lived TS or a stronger system?

Probably a tropical storm lasting 3-4 days. Wouldn't rule out a hurricane, though. No threat to any land areas.

[hurricanes1234]

This system is very large, in fact, I don't think I've seen any tropical or tropical-like system in the Atlantic this size before. By the way, isn't it getting a lot better organised, or is it just me? I kind of see a replica of a CDO in there.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. AFTER THAT
TIME...CONDITIONS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[CrazyC83]

Conditions are horrible around it though...I can't see it developing.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Conditions are horrible around it though...I can't see it developing.

Upper-level winds should improve after 72 hours as it recurves in the open Atlantic. We'll see if it can do something then..

[TheStormExpert]

Conditions are horrible around it though...I can't see it developing.

Upper-level winds should improve after 72 hours as it recurves in the open Atlantic. We'll see if it can do something then..

After 48hrs: "CONDITIONS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT".

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Conditions are horrible around it though...I can't see it developing.

Upper-level winds should improve after 72 hours as it recurves in the open Atlantic. We'll see if it can do something then..

After 48hrs: "CONDITIONS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT".

I said they would improve, not become incredibly conducive.

So continues 2013.

[floridasun78]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. AFTER THAT
TIME...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...