Wave E of the Leewards

[Vortex]

An area of convection associated with a tropical wave and developing low now centered E of the leeward islands. This area has been watched for many days and for the most part was void of convection until recently. The convection is beginning to increase as it heads westward. There is also a hint of a circulation mid/low trying to form...This area bears very close watching as the models generaly move it wes to a position over or just north of PR and then the SE bahamas in 3-4 days...

GFS 6z


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[caneman]

An area of convection associated with a tropical wave and developing low now centered E of the leeward islands. This area has been watched for many days and for the most part was void of convection until recently. The convection is beginning to increase as it heads westward. There is also a hint of a circulation mid/low trying to form...This area bears very close watching as the models generaly move it wes to a position over or just north of PR and then the SE bahamas in 3-4 days...

GFS 6z


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Interesting. What is that they is show off the coat of West Florida at 102 hrs? Is that some type of low?

[Vortex]

Latest image...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... 4_loop.php

[Gustywind]

Convection is popping nicely as the system moving ouest churning near the Leewards...looking good
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Note some pockets of sal ahead of the this area of convection...maybe inhibiting briefly the area to be more unstable (more moisture).
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv.jpg
But these pocket of sal seems very light and passing quickly west and in a lessning trend... interressing to see what will happen in this area in the next couple of hours

[punkyg]

Do you really mean pockets of SAL and not pockets of dry air?
i need to know does this thing have a low with it or is now developing one or does not have one at all.

[HURAKAN]

Persistance is key, but it looks interesting.

[Gustywind]

Yeah punky i will say dry air after all, sal is stronger and given the NHC discussion not the last at 805am,they're talking about dry air...yellow card for me lol?! Agree with them...maybe my eyes are ...untrained or deceiving me lool . Whereas not fully persistent and intense dry air given the trend observed since the beginning of the week!
All in all as Hurakan wrote it perfectly,we will see if it persits, it's the key factor...very interresting thing churning not too far to my island of GUADELOUPE. I don't see any low with it right now:spam:

[punkyg]

Well gusty if this wae come near you or over can you say hi for me.

[Gustywind]

yeah lool , but there's time for that lool

[HURAKAN]

We're not the only ones noticing the increase in convection!!!

TWD 805:
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERALLY ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH
OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE E BASED ON ITS APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING...AND ALSO AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS. IN ADDITION...WINDS AT BUOY 41040 HAVE REMAINED FROM
THE NE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SUGGESTING THE WAVE HAS YET
TO PASS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THE
WAVE...WITH LIGHTNING DATA NOW DEPICTING SCATTERED TSTMS FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 51W-56W. OVERALL THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS
MINIMAL AND DISORGANIZED. A SEPARATE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N46W...WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY
AND DISSIPATING.

[windstorm99]

Both of those waves to me have a chance at doing something....The one at 22N has my attention.

[windstorm99]

[ronjon]

Well, I have to admit I have been tracking this naked swirl for the past several days and thought it would never be much more than that - by the way, this must be the only site where guys look at naked swirls and get immediately disgusted The GFS model has consistently tracked this feature into S FL and it is mentioned as a wave that will impact central FL in the NWS Melbourne AFD this morning. If it develops, (a big IF) - it could be bad news for FL

[cycloneye]

Well, I have to admit I have been tracking this naked swirl for the past several days and thought it would never be much more than that - by the way, this must be the only site where guys look at naked swirls and get immediately disgusted The GFS model has consistently tracked this feature into S FL and it is mentioned as a wave that will impact central FL in the NWS Melbourne AFD this morning. If it develops, (a big IF) - it could be bad news for FL

And that little swirl is what is left of the infamous 98L.

[Gustywind]

Hi cycloneye

[Gustywind]

Convection looking more concentrated in a sort o little bulk....
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[punkyg]

Really?!? i thought 98L's swirl was gone days ago.
maybe 98L is making a come back as a new invest.
and is ready to attack cause we all gave up on him.

[HURAKAN]

Convection looking more concentrated in a sort o little bulk....
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

Maybe Gordon all over again!!!

Remember last year how Gordon came sort of out of nowhere!!

[Typhoon_Willie]

seems to be increasing in cloud coverage so far. Here is the link.

[perk]

Yeah i think the naked swirl is getting ready to rear it's ugly head. Just as predicted by by some on this thread once it passed 50 west.