Tropical Wave with low near African Coast

[cycloneye]

Click the symbol located in the upper left and see the image in giant form.Lets see what this system does as soon it hits the water,more south in latitud than where the wave that gave birth to Bertha and wave that was tagged as 97L.At least it has some model support from GFS.

Sierra Leone located at around 8n has NNW winds being reported.:

Code: Select all

Wind  from the NNW (330 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 KT) 
Visibility  4 mile(s) 
Sky conditions  mostly cloudy 
Weather  Rain
Cumulonimbus clouds observed 
Temperature  75 F (24 C) 
Dew Point  75 F (24 C) 
Relative Humidity  100% 
Pressure (altimeter)  29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa) 
ob  GFLL 271200Z 33006KT 8000 RA BKN010 FEW027 24/24 Q1015 CB/NE/SE 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 


The Sal (Saharan Air Layer) will not be a factor when this system emerges West Africa.



GFS Model:

00z GFS at 84 Hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

06z GFS at 96 Hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

06z GFS at 120 Hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

06z GFS at 144 Hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

06z GFS at 168 Hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

After this 168 hour it becomes fantasyland so I will not post further.Lets see what happens with this wave/low as it moves west and if there is additional model support from GFS and other models later on.

[canetracker]

Steve Lyons on the Weather Channel just mentioned this wave as well. He said it has a vigourous low pressure system. It may be worth watching.

[Meso]

Here's what the cmc does

[blp]

Looks intersting. I don't see any let up with this Afican wave train so far.This year is certainly making up for the last several years. Once we get later into August the SST's should warm up a bit in the area from 30W to 45W and they should be able to sustain that convection a little better.I can't wait to see these waves later on in August and early September.

[njweather]

06z gfs spins it up rather quickly

96 hrs:

[Blown Away]

If something develops it appears to the high won't be strong enough to keep it from recurving before 60W.

[cycloneye]

The 12z GFS starts showing the low at 54 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

72 hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

90 Hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

138 hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

150 Hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

162 Hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

[blp]

The GFS 12Z run has a stronger Ridge than the 06Z. Also a weaker system too.

06Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr


Mid Range
06Z 204hr
http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs//GF ... /slp32.png

12Z 204hr
http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs//GF ... /slp32.png

[Tampa_God]

Just logged onto my computer and first thing I checked was this area. Certainly looks like a strong wave. SAL looks like it won't affect this and there's no shear to rip this apart. Only thing that I would like to state is that it seems like this wave is too far south. Don't know what the temps are in the area, but if they're are reasonable, I give this wave a 80% chance being our next invest in the next 48-72 hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html

[cycloneye]

The 12z EURO is on board showing a weak low in 96 hours.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8072712!!/

[cycloneye]

Another prospective of the African wave with a low near 11n in this neat pic.

http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/photos/world_big.jpg

[cycloneye]

The 18z run of GFS starts showing the low at 48 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

72 Hours= Low near Cape Verde islands= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

144 Hours= Low not there but system moves NW= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

[Emmett_Brown]

Just logged onto my computer and first thing I checked was this area. Certainly looks like a strong wave. SAL looks like it won't affect this and there's no shear to rip this apart. Only thing that I would like to state is that it seems like this wave is too far south. Don't know what the temps are in the area, but if they're are reasonable, I give this wave a 80% chance being our next invest in the next 48-72 hrs.

In this case, I think further S actually would aid in development. Shear is lower (and easterly) further S, and water temps are warmer:



This pic is kind of small, but you can see that the water temps off Africa are more favorable further south.



Also, as some of the pro mets have stated, further south doesnt inhibit development if there is a force to get it spinning. In this case, I believe there is already an LLC over land with this:

[cycloneye]

Low is right on the coast as I type this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[Scorpion]

Wow, it looks great. I don't see why it can't develop.

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html

[HURAKAN]

Looks very interesting.

Note: I'm back after a relaxing weekend in Fort Lauderdale in the house of long-time friends. Played baseball and took a few dips in the pool. It was a necessary break after a long July tropical-wise.

[gatorcane]

Low is right on the coast as I type this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

It's looking impressive from a convection standpoint already.