Area East of 94L Looking Interesting=(Is invest 95L)

[abajan]

Could this be 95L developing?

[Gustywind]

Hi Abajan, are you speaking about the area at 10N 30W? If that looking nice moisture is good in this area and for the moment upper levels too, wait and see but i have no idea concerning the models, are they interresting to developp this area, i don't know. Good looking as usual Abajan, let's wait and see the next couple of hours if convection can be sustained first....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Winds are weak at 30W 10N
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
Weak SAL only small pockets are doting the are to its north, maybe a little window of opportunity....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/wv-l.jpg
Moisture is present another favorable element...

[KWT]

Looks like it was just related to the ITCZ, there may be some sort of circulation down there but its not got much convection near it now.

[Vortex]

9N 30.2w appears to be slowly organizing this morning and may have a good shot at developing based on the current and forecasted synoptics..This may be what several of the globals are picking up on including last night Euro..


Vis image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

[abajan]

Yep. It's not unheard of for cyclones to pop out of the ITCZ. I believe Hurricane Flora in '63 was such a system. Heck, even the area just ESE of Barbados is beginning to look a little suspicious to me. Well, I guess it's that time of year.

[FireBird]

Hello abajan,

It seems that like me, you are keeping an eye out for those lower latitude storm possibilities. Are the folks in Barbados a bit jumpy about a storm this year? The general thinking in Trinidad seems to be that it's our turn this year....

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, Im beginning to think that this is the one to watch as opposed to 94L. I no longer think 94L will develop, at least in the near term, due to inconsistent convection and dry air entrainment. This however, has has persistent convection for a few days now, a definite mlc, a large moisture envelope, and I believe quikscat showed what may be a developing but incomplete llc. The only problem it may have in the near term is shear, as the TUTT drops sw. I dont believe dry air will be a problem because of its moisture envelope.

[cheezyWXguy]

We need combine this thread with the other, or delete one of them

[HURAKAN]

We need combine this thread with the other, or delete one of them

Done!

[cycloneye]

This look like a new invest shortly.

[abajan]

Hello abajan,

It seems that like me, you are keeping an eye out for those lower latitude storm possibilities. Are the folks in Barbados a bit jumpy about a storm this year? The general thinking in Trinidad seems to be that it's our turn this year....

Nope, probably just me because I tend to obsess about hurricanes at this time of year . BTW, welcome to S2K, fellow West Indian!

[Category 5]

If I remember correctly, 94L (future Dolly) was caught in and basically held together by the ITCZ.

[Derek Ortt]

9N 30.2w appears to be slowly organizing this morning and may have a good shot at developing based on the current and forecasted synoptics..This may be what several of the globals are picking up on including last night Euro..


Vis image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

It's at the base of a ridge. Completely wrong area to see development

[cheezyWXguy]

9N 30.2w appears to be slowly organizing this morning and may have a good shot at developing based on the current and forecasted synoptics..This may be what several of the globals are picking up on including last night Euro..


Vis image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

It's at the base of a ridge. Completely wrong area to see development

Why is that?

[Derek Ortt]

there is negative vorticity in the area

its not in a trough... its in a ridge

[KWT]

Very interesting Derek can something form in that set-up though?

for what its worth this just looks like one of those fairly typical ITCZ bursts that sometimes last 24-36hrs but don't do anything, but I suppose its August and thus does need watching, esp given some models have been trying to develop it.

[abajan]

It's at the base of a ridge. Completely wrong area to see development

Derek, whether at the base of a ridge or the top of a mountain, it's looking awfully menacing to me, man. But I'll trust your professional judgment.

[cheezyWXguy]

Very interesting Derek can something form in that set-up though?

for what its worth this just looks like one of those fairly typical ITCZ bursts that sometimes last 24-36hrs but don't do anything, but I suppose its August and thus does need watching, esp given some models have been trying to develop it.

This has actually lasted a bit longer than 24-36 hours...this has been around at least 2 or 3 days. Nice rotation, but I question development as well. My focus is beginning to shift more towards 94L again in the long term, but both need to be watch for signs of development over the next couple of days.

[KWT]

Well there is some circulation with it but who knows, willing to bet this will be 95L however if it can keep this up for the next 18hrs.

[Brent]

12z EURO loves this system, huge hurricane south of Cuba in 240 hours: