Possible Gulf System next week (Is invest 94L)

[lonelymike]

Models have been showing a possible storm in the Gulf next week. From Mobile AFD:
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE
TO PROG A MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE
GULF BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS THE LATEST GFS PROGS IT TO ENTER THE TEXAS COAST
THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF PROGS IT TO ENTER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY
MIDWEEK. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MAINTAINED THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH
THURSDAY. 95/TM

[KWT]

The ECM has been steadily trending north with this feature...if it gets over water then something like say Edouard from 08 is possible but not convinced it digs far enough south for something like that to happen just yet...something to just keep an eye on possibly though.

[rockyman]

12z Euro:


Earlier 00z Euro:


12z Canadian (eastern FL Panhandle):

[Ivanhater]

Wow...I noticed it looking over the models earlier, but I assumed it was just a vort max with the stalled front over land...Interesting...

[HURAKAN]

It would be funny if it gets tagged as 95L !!!

[StormClouds63]

The ECM has been steadily trending north with this feature...if it gets over water then something like say Edouard from 08 is possible but not convinced it digs far enough south for something like that to happen just yet...something to just keep an eye on possibly though.

... or Humberto (2007), but still looks doubtful.

[Ptarmigan]

... or Humberto (2007), but still looks doubtful.

You never know............................

[Ivanhater]

Canadian showing it

[Ivanhater]

00Z Euro

[KWT]

Thats quite agressive from the ECM...worth noting though that the models may not actually be showing something tropical from this from what I heard yesterday with this feature....but you've gotta think even if that was the case it'd probably change.

Alas comprasions to 2007 continue!

[ronjon]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
119 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A TUTT LOW ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
WED. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE POSITION AND THE MOISTURE RETURN. GFS
PUSHES THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WESTWARD THROUGH GA AND AL AND
ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...
BOTH MODELS DEVELOP SOMEWHAT OF A SURFACE LOW. ECMWF IS SHOWING A
CLOSED 1010 LOW FORMING OVER TAMPA BAY WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS AN
OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY
UNCERTAINTY OF THESE FEATURES AND THE DIFFICULTLY THE MODELS
CURRENTLY ARE HAVING WITH THIS SYSTEM...TOOK A MODEST BLEND OF THE
THE ECMWF AND GFS ON MON AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
WITH WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...BUMPED UP POPS TO 60 ACROSS THE
BOARD ON MON. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCATTERED POPS THROUGH WED...BUT
MAY HAVE INCREASE IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WELL WEST OF THE STATE...

[HURAKAN]

HPC shows a system tracking from Tampa to New Orleans.

[bohaiboy]

Our private weather service here in H-Town also indicates something tropical moving across the GoM.

[ronjon]

18Z NAM shows a mid-to-lower level low developing over south FL and moving west.

[Ivanhater]

Ron, the DGEX is an extension of the Nam based on GFS conditions...blows it up in the GOM

Just a FYI to new users, the DGEX model is highly unreliable. but is entertaining to look at

[StormClouds63]

What are the chances for development, Ivan? Perhaps 20-30%? If it did form next week, do you think this would be Earl ... assuming Danielle forms out in the central Atlantic.

That high pressure over the south-central Gulf Coast is forecast to shift eastward next week, so if there is to be development in the GOM this might be the timeframe.

Let's see if more of the models pick this up over the next couple of days.

[ronjon]

06Z GFS develops some vorticity off the SW FL coast.

[ronjon]

Models want to move a mid-level disturbance south and then west across the FL peninsula from the disturbed weather east of JAX. Need to watch this area for potential development since its so close to the US. It may just be an Upper Level feature but something to watch, non-the-less since a few models are developing a surface low from it.

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&isingle=multiple&itype=vis

[Dean4Storms]

Mobile AFD this morning........

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXPECTING A DRYING TREND IN
THE FORECAST AREA WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES POSSIBLY RETURNING TO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS DROPPED THE TROPICAL WAVE
WE SAW FROM THE LAST RUN AND THE GFS IS PICKING ONE UP FORMING OFF
THE OLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THAT DOES SHOW IT IN THE NORTHEAST GULF.
THEREFORE WE ARE STAYING WITH THE MOS POPS. 77/BD


We need to keep an eye on it for sure!!

[ronjon]

12Z GFS and NAM point to low pressure developing off the SW FL coast and moving toward NO.