Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

It looks like a TS inside Africa,but lets see if when it emerges into the water,it does the same down the road. At least it has model support by GFS and ECMWF. Lets see down the road what this one does but I feel this may be the kickoff of the CV Season as the pattern despicted by the ensembles of GFS shows less troughinness and more high pressure after the 20th.

Infared

[hurricaneCW]

I don't see how the ECMWF develops it. This morning's gfs does something with an African wave but that's about it. There's no sense in trying to track something that's over 10 days out.

[cycloneye]

I don't see how the ECMWF develops it. This morning's gfs does something with an African wave but that's about it. There's no sense in trying to track something that's over 10 days out.

What is the name of this forum?

[hurricaneCW]

Well I'm just saying that's it's very far out in the future. Still, it's something to watch out for, I'm sure it'll be our next storm in 10 days.

[Bocadude85]

I don't see how the ECMWF develops it. This morning's gfs does something with an African wave but that's about it. There's no sense in trying to track something that's over 10 days out.

In the other thread you were trusting models that showed no development 10 days from now, but now that a model does develop something 10 days from now you dont trust it? I am not sure I understand that logic.

[Frank2]

While putting on my sneakers this morning (lol) I heard Dr. Knabb saying to Al Roker that the models are forecasting the CA wave to develop - but the models say everything that far east will develop (a/k/a what most of us here have seen with every wave this summer), so that really wasn't anything new...

Sure, it's the season for that to happen, but whether it does happen is another issue...

And, he did show the graphic of the twin ULL's dominating the Atlantic this week, versus next week's forecast map that shows only the one ULL in the Central Atlantic - but that usually means that anything forming near the CVI will recurve into the trough, so we're pretty much back to square one...

Frank

[CourierPR]

You folks who continue to bash the future model trends might want to form your own site.

[HURAKAN]

You folks who continue to bash the future model trends might want to form your own site.

It's true that most computer models develop more waves than they actually develop.

93L was supposed to develop, the wave behind it was supposed to develop, etc.

I believe it when I see it.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't see how the ECMWF develops it. This morning's gfs does something with an African wave but that's about it. There's no sense in trying to track something that's over 10 days out.

All cycloneye is trying to say is that it's something to keep an eye on in the future...Sooner or later the models have to start latching on to something developing, so this might be the one..

[hurricanehunter69]

I don't see how the ECMWF develops it. This morning's gfs does something with an African wave but that's about it. There's no sense in trying to track something that's over 10 days out.

In the other thread you were trusting models that showed no development 10 days from now, but now that a model does develop something 10 days from now you dont trust it? I am not sure I understand that logic.

Best two sentence post of the month! Lmao, couldn't help it!

[BigA]

It appears that there are some that get great joy in talking about how things might develop, and others who gain joy from talking about how things won't develop. Nevertheless, this forum if for tropical weather enthusiasts, so it's rather understandable if certain folks (myself included) get annoyed by downcasting, especially if it's not backed up by evidence.

See Frank2's post for an excellent example of a post that is skeptical on development, but uses good analysis, IMHO.

That said (back to topic) it's sort of hard for the other models to give model support right now because most of them don't go out to 240 hours, and the long range pattern for both the GFS and ECMWF show a much stronger Atlantic high, with the GFS taking this as of now phantom system almost all the way to the east coast in the latest run. So it's way too early to speculate whether this system, if it forms at all, will recurve.

[cycloneye]

GFS continues to develop it. I dont care if is a fish,I want to finnally track something.

12z at 120 hours



12z at 144 hours.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

We'll have to see what it does when it hits the water, but for the time being this AEW already has the appearance of a tropical depression with very notable cyclonic curvature and a well-defined tight structure. Satellite loops suggest that the tropical wave is currently moving towards the west-southwest, but may begin westward motion later on. Considering that it will emerge south of 10N, this may be a "LT" or "long track" system. Could this kick off the Cape Verde season? Possibly.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

The GFS continues to turn this tropical wave into a hurricane very quickly...12z GFS 192 hours below:

[cycloneye]

Look at the ridge that GFS despicts. It means this will not go to open waters.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Look at the ridge that GFS despicts. It means this will not go to open waters.

That's what I was thinking, but it did, as a category 5. Check out the entire run.

384 hours:

[Scorpion]

Geez.. talk about massive. Maybe this might be our first CV system?

[ColinDelia]

Look at the ridge that GFS despicts. It means this will not go to open waters.

That's what I was thinking, but it did, as a category 5. Check out the entire run.

384 hours:

Heh. half a month from now.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, way way to early to call this a fish if it develops. I see a high pressure above it, so I'm not sure...

[cycloneye]

CMC joins GFS and ECMWF.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation