Another Strong Wave off African Coast (Is Invest 96L)

[ronjon]

Another vigorous wave is about to emerge off the west african coast. So far, only model support from the CMC and a weak reflection in the ECM but something to watch east of 95L.

New Wave

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010082100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP096.gif

[ColinDelia]

"When PGI31L and PGI33L merged, another feature caught our eyes near 20W, 15N at the same. Maybe a future PGI34L?"
https://groups.ssec.wisc.edu/groups/tro ... og-8-20-10

[cycloneye]

It is now PGI-34L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI34L.html

[ColinDelia]

I believe it's this by looking at the CMC

[ColinDelia]

heh, Good timing cycloneye

[ronjon]

I've been watching this disturbance rotating across equatorial African the last several days. It has a nice envelope of moisture and cyclonic turning. It appears it will come off the coast at a pretty low latitude. You can see on this loop speeded up.

New Wave Sat

[jtom]

I've been watching this disturbance rotating across equatorial African the last several days. It has a nice envelope of moisture and cyclonic turning. It appears it will come off the coast at a pretty low latitude. You can see on this loop speeded up.

New Wave Sat

In other years, this would be the genesis of a TS. But look what happens to the mid and upper water vapor when these systems hit the dry, dusty Saharan Air Layer swirling in the Atlantic.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... java5.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... java5.html

Some shift in the wind patterns is sending more dry Saharan Air further south and west this year. It seems to be just killing storm development. This may change in an hour, but until it does, storm development is going to be infrequent and weak.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree that the wave is coming off at a lower latitude, which means that IF it does develop, there's a much greater chance that it will NOT recurve...We'll just have to wait and see if it develops first...

[Ivanhater]

Apparently the 12z Euro develops this as well. Waiting for the maps.

[KWT]

Yeah 12z ECM does develop it but follows 95L which leaves a monster hole for the system to go through as soon as 35-40W...

Strengthening ridge in the west Atlantic means nothing if there is a deep trough to scoop up everything further east people!

[hurricaneCW]

If anybody is looking for landfalls, than a homebrew system is the way to go this season. I'm shocked by how much weakness is in the Atlantic at this time of year. It's not an August pattern that's for sure, more like an October pattern.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yeah 12z ECM does develop it but follows 95L which leaves a monster hole for the system to go through as soon as 35-40W...

Strengthening ridge in the west Atlantic means nothing if there is a deep trough to scoop up everything further east people!

I think you are right KWT. I was thinking it was lower in latitude so it had a much better chance of not recurving, but I went back and looked at all the maps, and now I see exactly what you are seeing. This one looks like an early recurve as well.....


We'll still get some big Carib and Gulf storms this year though, so we better enjoy the recurves while we can...

[KWT]

Yeah its a very troughy pattern...if you look at the heights even at 240hrs on the ECM its still got a troughy presentation, just the troughs aren't very strong.

If something were to form at 60W it'd have a shot...but actually those sorts of set-ups don't seem to happen too often in La Nina's since the E.Atlantic tends to be favourable.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yeah its a very troughy pattern...if you look at the heights even at 240hrs on the ECM its still got a troughy presentation, just the troughs aren't very strong.

If something were to form at 60W it'd have a shot...but actually those sorts of set-ups don't seem to happen too often in La Nina's since the E.Atlantic tends to be favourable.

Yep, Carib and Gulf storms are the ones that are going to wreak havoc on the USA this year, but they can be just as bad as CV storms sometimes.

[KWT]

Thats if we even get any of those of course CZ!

That being said I'm sure the Caribbean will pump out a major but we'll see...thats not really for this topic lol!

[StormClouds63]

If this is the future Earl, it will follow Danielle on a deep-sea fishing trip.

CV pattern similar to 1995 with re-curves likely. In the eastern Atlantic, it's already October.

[cycloneye]

Looks very good.

[KWT]

The GFS keeps this very sheared by TD6 and tracking WNW nearly throughout till 228hrs...I reckon if that track happened the US would certainly be at risk...

[ColinDelia]

GFS has this hitting the drink 48 hours from now.

24 hours. 1008 mb
48 hours. 1004 mb
96 hours. 1002 mb

No strengthening after that (through 174 hours anyway)

[KWT]

Yeah the system gets rather poorly sheared by TD6 when it starts to lift out to the north.