Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat? (Is Invest 97L)

[Ivanhater]

Seems this one is getting some attention already.

12z GFS run shows the wave coming off Africa in about 90 hours and traverses the Atlantic, then blowing up into a Hurricane entering the Gulf

Reflection coming off Africa

[Vortex]

This is the one that has my attention....Cycloneye posted sat24.com and you can clearly see the wave that appears to be future fiona...I have some graphics from this morning that i'll post this evening when I get home from work regarding future fiona.

[Macrocane]

Yep it could be one of those systems that affect the islands, Central America, Mexico and US. It may be just one of those famous phantom canes anyway. One interesting thing that I want tom mention is that earlier this year we had a poll about the names that sounded like were going to be "Big ones" and Fiona was in 3rd place after Gaston (2nd) and Igor (1st).

[Ivanhater]

This could be the one over Africa..future Earl already off the coast...

[cycloneye]

Or this one at the right part of image.

[ColinDelia]

Shoot, and Maybe her brother Gaston behind her at 20E. They probably won't all work out but never know going into September

[Vortex]

Buckle up here comes the african wave train...Hope everyone is well rested

[Wx_Warrior]

Didn't see much after 96L on the long range 12z EURO.

[ronjon]

Coming into view now on this SAT shot - disturbance on right. 12Z GFS keeps this a low rider across the Atlantic near 10N.

http://www.sat24.com/wa

[Stormcenter]

Wait a minute we are now giving names to things that haven't even and may not even develop? Isn't that like against the rules here? Man things are getting desperate around here with the lack of activity

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro is showing a reflection the same at the 12z GFS..remember the GFS didn't get strong until after it got into the Caribbean

Also, don't take strength as complete fact. Euro didn't strengthen "Earl" the last few days either until now. Euro shows the reflection and has great conditions and ridging over this one

Reflection shows up just east of the Islands on the 12z Euro..

[Ivanhater]

Per JB today:

"While the GFS hints at development in the western gulf before the week is out, the day 15 is wild. The combination of Danielle and Earl is stalled in the atlantic east of Bermuda. A home grown storm is heading into the mid atlantic states after developing east of the SC coast, and there is a hurricane in the western Caribbean. The point here is the model, just like it was starting to hear the parade before you saw the band for this week, is seeing the whole pot start to boil over. The key.... the change in the pressure field between 40 and 50 north due to the ridging that develops in the means over the lakes and northeast. This incubates the tropics... and allows things to cook."

[x-y-no]

Wait a minute we are now giving names to things that haven't even and may not even develop? Isn't that like against the rules here? Man things are getting desperate around here with the lack of activity

Things are a bit more relaxed in Talkin' Tropics than they are in Active Storms.

[Vortex]

1 hour till 18Z GFS rolls

[Steve]

>>The key.... the change in the pressure field between 40 and 50 north due to the ridging that develops in the means over the lakes and northeast. This incubates the tropics... and allows things to cook."

This is the big key. I was looking at north of 50, but if the Horse Latitudes are good enough, it's building in over top at 200mb and probably will be following along at 500mb soon. As per the links in Future of the Season thread, NAO progged to go positive next week - the telegraph/switch perhaps. And Yikes.

[Comanche]

Don't worry, it's 2010 so a stout ULL will devour Fiona in the Caribbean or Gulf.............................................................please................be there.................you beautiful ULL..........................hot TC eating ULL that you are!

[ConvergenceZone]

Don't worry, it's 2010 so a stout ULL will devour Fiona in the Caribbean or Gulf.............................................................please................be there.................you beautiful ULL..........................hot TC eating ULL that you are!

Well, our ULL luck is going to run out sooner or later. I highly
doubt that there will be one to save the gulf this time. That would
be too freaky and abnormal.

[Comanche]

Don't worry, it's 2010 so a stout ULL will devour Fiona in the Caribbean or Gulf.............................................................please................be there.................you beautiful ULL..........................hot TC eating ULL that you are!

Well, our ULL luck is going to run out sooner or later. I highly
doubt that there will be one to save the gulf this time. That would
be too freaky and abnormal.

CURSE you, oh doubter of the great ULL!

[Comanche]

In all seriousness, the real hope is for the ridge that is baking lays througout Texas, to be stout and steadfast to push Fiona of the future on a continued west path into Mexico, (sorry Mexico but I am still fixing things from Ike).

[KWT]

Ah gosh people moaned at me for calling Danielle too early, at least there was good model support to develop that one

Anyway I'd say this one has a shot but once again depends on what danielle does in relation to 96L and then how long that takes to lift out or maybe not.

There are just WAYYYY too many variables to even try and make a call!