Caribbean development? (Is invest 92L)
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- Ivanhater
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Caribbean development? (Is invest 92L)
12z Euro and 00z Nogaps are developing a tropical system in the NW Caribbean. Not exactly sure what wave this originates from.
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Michael
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Re: NW Caribbean development?
Looks like the weakness over the SE CONUS would recurve the Atlantic systems but may allow the W Caribbean system to move north instead of west?
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- ColinDelia
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the 0z euro looks like it has it around Barbados at 72 hours then moving west across the entire caribbean
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html
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Re: NW Caribbean development?
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Re: NW Caribbean development?
At 216, there appears to be a high centered over LA, which should steer system in NW Carribean toward the NE Mexican/Southern Texas coast if the pattern depicted on the model verifies. Still a long way out and things will undoubtedly change.
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Re: NW Caribbean development?
Looking at the 240h image Ivan posted, the system did move off the Yucatan in the general direction of NE Mexico/Southern Texas. However, the high over LA and Texas seems to have weakened and/or moved east, which in my opinion would increase the threat to Texas and possibly LA if the 12z European verifies. As I already said, this will undoubtedly change.
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Re: NW Caribbean development?
Good eye Big O....interesting thing would be where does the middle one end up?
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- Ivanhater
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Re: NW Caribbean development?
Big O wrote:At 216, there appears to be a high centered over LA, which should steer system in NW Carribean toward the NE Mexican/Southern Texas coast if the pattern depicted on the model verifies. Still a long way out and things will undoubtedly change.
Between 216 and 240 hours, the high is reduced significantly so if extrapolated, it would likely start gaining much more latitude. However, really no need to over analyze in this range
216
240
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Michael
Re: NW Caribbean development?
Vortex wrote:look at that high coming out of canada...
What would a big high coming out of Canada do to this system's track, or the track of another system farther to the east over the Atlantic?
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Re: NW Caribbean development?
Ivan,
IF verifies, that could be an ugly problem for Tex/La...SETX would be on the edge of the ridge.
IF verifies, that could be an ugly problem for Tex/La...SETX would be on the edge of the ridge.
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- Ivanhater
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Re: NW Caribbean development?
Wx_Warrior wrote:Ivan,
IF verifies, that could be an ugly problem for Tex/La...SETX would be on the edge of the ridge.
Absolutely, of course things will change back and forth but we have consistency here with a storm developing.
This could be the first storm traversing the NW Caribbean and that is trouble in itself.
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Michael
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