Disturbance in the western Caribbean (Is invest 98L)
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Disturbance in the western Caribbean (Is invest 98L)
This is a complicated setup so excuse the technical terms; unfortunately, there is not a better way to explain this.
Three factors are in play:
1) IMHO the UL negative MPV from 97L continues west into the Carib.
2) This will interact later in the week with a cutoff PV from the trough dropping down from the CONUS.
3) This could also be reinforced by the vorticity of the wave associated from 97L as it continues west.
All globals are showing 850mb vortticity breaking off from the trough in the west Carib.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation
UL should be favorable then as diabatic heating of the large convection currently from 97L pushes west.
If it continues to fire, it may be able to redirect the anti-cyclone currently over Hispaniola to the area south of Jamaica.
At that time, the dynamic tropopause should lift and be conducive for TC genesis.
Trade winds have shifted in the Carib.
They are running from the west south of Hispaniola and out of the north in the west Carib.
GFS has been consistant with spinup and more models jumping on it.
CAPE is forecasted to be 1500 to 2000 in the West Carib at that time.
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cor ... ecast.html
Three factors are in play:
1) IMHO the UL negative MPV from 97L continues west into the Carib.
2) This will interact later in the week with a cutoff PV from the trough dropping down from the CONUS.
3) This could also be reinforced by the vorticity of the wave associated from 97L as it continues west.
All globals are showing 850mb vortticity breaking off from the trough in the west Carib.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation
UL should be favorable then as diabatic heating of the large convection currently from 97L pushes west.
If it continues to fire, it may be able to redirect the anti-cyclone currently over Hispaniola to the area south of Jamaica.
At that time, the dynamic tropopause should lift and be conducive for TC genesis.
Trade winds have shifted in the Carib.
They are running from the west south of Hispaniola and out of the north in the west Carib.
GFS has been consistant with spinup and more models jumping on it.
CAPE is forecasted to be 1500 to 2000 in the West Carib at that time.
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cor ... ecast.html
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- expat2carib
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Re: Globals hinting at West Carib Development around Oct 8
High rain-rate cells are firing south of DR which adds a lot to latent heating of the mid- & upper-troposphere.
This could eventually lead in moving the anti-cyclone more south.
The setup is looking more and more like what happened with Nicole.
This could eventually lead in moving the anti-cyclone more south.
The setup is looking more and more like what happened with Nicole.
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Re: Globals hinting at West Carib Development around Oct 8
I've been thinking that things would ramp up beginning on October 8 and last into November 25th, we'll see if this is the start of one of the craziest late-season episodes ever.
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Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22
12Z GFS looks continues to depicts development within 5 days over the SW carribean.
*mods it would be nice if we could have a seperate thread for this.
H174
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
*mods it would be nice if we could have a seperate thread for this.
H174
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
Hurricane hit dates from the west/south on FL from Tampa area south 10/1+ (1851-2009):
10/2, 10/5, 10/5, 10/6, 10/7, 10/9, 10/11, 10/11, 10/12, 10/14, 10/15, 10/17, 10/18, 10/18, 10/18, 10/19, 10/19, 10/20, 10/20, 10/20, 10/21, 10/23, 10/24, 10/25, 11/30
Note the bolded period of highest frequency for 10/1+ within a five day period by far being 10/17-21, which had a whopping TEN, double the highest frequency of any other 10/1+ five day period! So, the peak for 10/1+ for C/S FL hits from the west or south has clearly been 10/17-21.
Fwiw, the three of these that hit during a moderate or strong La Nina season hit on these dates: 10/11, 10/12, and 10/15.
10/2, 10/5, 10/5, 10/6, 10/7, 10/9, 10/11, 10/11, 10/12, 10/14, 10/15, 10/17, 10/18, 10/18, 10/18, 10/19, 10/19, 10/20, 10/20, 10/20, 10/21, 10/23, 10/24, 10/25, 11/30
Note the bolded period of highest frequency for 10/1+ within a five day period by far being 10/17-21, which had a whopping TEN, double the highest frequency of any other 10/1+ five day period! So, the peak for 10/1+ for C/S FL hits from the west or south has clearly been 10/17-21.
Fwiw, the three of these that hit during a moderate or strong La Nina season hit on these dates: 10/11, 10/12, and 10/15.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
Vortex wrote:Larry, as usual GREAT RESEARCH... thanks for those stats..
Thanks Vortex.
Regarding those 10 hurricane hits within 10/17-21, the last one was way back in 1950, interestingly enough! Here are the years:
1870, 1876, 1878, 1904, 1906, 1910, 1924, 1926, 1944, and 1950.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: Disturbed Weather in the southwest Caribbean
12Z Euro also indicates low pressure developing over the SW carribean by day 5.
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif
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Re: ATL: Disturbed Weather in the southwest Caribbean
I'm thinking the GFS has the right idea, but is rushing development by a good 5-7 days.
GFS ensembles have very little support for W. Caribbean development early next week, but more support by Oct 17-20.
The MJO pattern is unfavorable for the next 10 days or so, but will likely become more neutral by Oct 17-20 once a negative Kelvin wave exits the Cairbbean.
GFS ensembles have very little support for W. Caribbean development early next week, but more support by Oct 17-20.
The MJO pattern is unfavorable for the next 10 days or so, but will likely become more neutral by Oct 17-20 once a negative Kelvin wave exits the Cairbbean.
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