SW Caribbean Storm? - (Is Invest 94L)

[ronjon]

Global models are showing another SW caribbean tropical cyclone developing in 4-5 days north of Panama. So far, the CMC and GFS are the most bullish on development although the UKMET and ECM both develop a weaker closed system.

[Cyclone1]

Interesting. The GFS has been too dead on accurate this year to ignore.

[Florida1118]

AJC3 has a thread about model storms:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109634
Use the long range model thread I guess.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS has a full blown Hurricane in the NW Caribbean..eventually in the long range moves into the BOC.

[SouthDadeFish]

It looks like the 12Z GFS swings energy out from South America and has an organized system developed by 48-72 hours. That's not that far away....

[SouthDadeFish]

Also, the GFS shows a pretty favorable upper air pattern in the NW Carib if a system were to develop... To be honest, seems like a pattern set-up for a monster in the NW Carib. We'll see what happens. The season isn't dead yet!

[ronjon]

12z CMC - weaker than 00Z but still bullish on development.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010111012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[dwsqos2]

Bad News! The 12Z Euro was quite weak.

[wxman57]

Probably a bogus development, much like the early-season storms the GFS and other models forecast for this area each year.

[Ivanhater]

Probably a bogus development, much like the early-season storms the GFS and other models forecast for this area each year.

I was looking back at previous runs of the GFS, and it was progressively getting stronger on each run. Almost all the models show pressures lowering in the SW Caribbean but vary on strength. Climo wise, this is a favored area for development this time of year. Paloma and Ida come to mind.

I like the chances of development. Enough support to keep one eye on at least...

Also, I wonder if this time of year, if models have a hard time with tropical development based on the changing of the season; kind of like in June.

[tolakram]

GFS has something starting in 78 hours.



Canadian in 72, though it loses it and then regains it at 96.



In the spring it's very common for the GFS to sniff out the first EPAC storm in this area, but this time of year, and with the updated model that seems to be doing very well down here, I'm thinking there's a decent risk of development. We shall see.

[wxman57]

It has to develop from something, and there appears to be nothing there. I'm not buying it. That doesn't mean I won't keep an eye on the region, though.

[Ivanhater]

12z Ukie..Does seem "dry" out there right now. Models do like the idea of pressures lowering in the region so something to watch for.

120 hours

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps a little slower through 144 hours

[Macrocane]

What about the tropical wave near 55W, couldn't it be the system that the GFS develops?

[wxman57]

What about the tropical wave near 55W, couldn't it be the system that the GFS develops?

It's possible that some of the energy from that wave is involved. I tried tracking the low-level vorticity but it was so weak that I couldn't verify any connection.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS still on it





Finally in the BOC



btw, the GFS seems pretty active in the long range out in the ATL...could we go Greek?

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the models develop this from vorticity coming off the coast of Colombia into already lowering pressures in the Western Caribbean.

18z Nogaps...

[wxman57]

It's a common early and late season model error. Let's hope they're wrong on this one. I'm ready to call it a season with most of my tropical team now working in other departments.

[MGC]

I'm ready for the season to end also....I don't want another Ida this year. I'd rather see the GFS cranking up a good snowstorm for the gulf coast though......MGC