NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Aric Dunn]

GFS and a couple other models are hinting at something maybe coming out of the western carrib over the next week and wouldn't you know there is a large amount of convection that has good upper support. needs to be watched.

[Hurricaneman]

This could possibly be the 3rd thing to come from that trough in the Carribean, first it was Alberto now we have Beryl and possibly another tropical system next week, thats nuts

[Cyclenall]

I agree, this cluster isn't looking too bad. It has to stay right there though. Wind shear is high but to the west of it, its going down.

[Aric Dunn]

I agree, this cluster isn't looking too bad. It has to stay right there though. Wind shear is high but to the west of it, its going down.

well its the upper divergence that is good atm aiding the development of very deep convection. add that with a pre exsiting trough and maybe a weak tropical wave and you have whats needed. models keep the area around for a week or so which give it plenty of time to organize. just need to persists.

[ROCK]

the 0Z GFS and even the 18Z not showing much as before....does look good though....

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


zero low level convergence and zero vort....might take awhile...

[NDG]

Nice mid level vorticity but there is nothing but easterly surface winds all across the Caribbean, pressures have lower just a little bit.
Might be something to watch late in the week.

[floridasun78]

it look like area could be invest soon if look same way later today or tonight

[tolakram]

Current Visible:


live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[tolakram]

Experimental probability chances not very high, and lower latitude than this blob.



from: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/

[tolakram]

And wind shear ...



from: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Aric Dunn]

yeah was not very likely. but models get a lot of convection in the area for the next quite a few days.

[Aric Dunn]

lol... the NAM sure thinks so................

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder if it will be tagged as an Invest and become a tropical depression or even storm, which would be Chris?

[AHS2011]

What are the chances that this system becomes invest 95l today?

[jonj2040]

What are the chances that this system becomes invest 95l today?

From what I´ve heard out taging stoms as invests might just mean they want to run a couple modles on the area, not necisarily that anyone thinks it has a high chance of forming. Personally I dont think it will be tagged, today atleast because it does not have much to work with at the moment, not much low convergence, ok upper divergence, little to no voticity, moderate shear, and not much model support. I dont think this will become 95l today.

I obtained my thoughts from viewing the cimss sight for winds and analisis.

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[Aric Dunn]

The other thing is. The area to watch would be the far western well rather NW Carrib. this area from alst night and today will move there and hang around. chances are not that great but yesterdays 12z runs from gfs nogaps and ukmet showed something weak.

[Cyclenall]

There is decent convection flaring up in the main NW Caribbean region again this morning. You can tell there is wind shear but it doesn't look ultra destructive on infrared imagery.

[underthwx]

Crown Weather reports chances near zero for any development this week.....40 knot wind shear not conducive for development atm.....if the area persists into next week the area may need to be watched more closely...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This area should not become anything of note. It's just an area of showers and thunderstorms being fueled by a divergent flow aloft. Surface observation and vorticity maps don't show any signs of a surface circulation, and the disturbance (if you want to call it that) is under high wind shear not at all conducive for organization.