Strong Wave East of Windward Islands-(Is Invest 97L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Strong Wave East of Windward Islands-(Is Invest 97L)

#1 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:04 pm

This is not the time of year to look out that far but it is quite a strong wave for this time of year. Has a very solid low to mid level vorticity. not likely to develop out there but with such a sharp wave axis could do something later into the carrib. right now the environment is to stable but ssts are plenty warm. just thought it might be something to watch. The gfs does somewhat develop it or at least hold the vorticity together pretty well. which is also interesting for this time of year.


satellite loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html


gfs
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

cmc not much but vorticity
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

nogaps hangs onto something.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139331
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Strong Tropical wave SW of Cape Verde islands.

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 25, 2012 4:39 pm

A little elongated but not looking bad the vorticity.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#3 Postby Gustywind » Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:48 pm

Interresting thing so far to keep an eye on... as we're looking for a decent or strong twave to bring water in the Lesser Antilles because of the pretty severe drought who continue to hit directly most of the the carib islands.
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#4 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 25, 2012 11:22 pm

a little convection building with it tonight...
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
ouragans
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 466
Age: 52
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:09 pm
Location: Abymes, Guadeloupe F.W.I
Contact:
Contact ouragans

Re: Strong Tropical wave SW of Cape Verde islands.

#5 Postby ouragans » Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:13 am

We really need this type of small wave, to bring rain down here as Gustywind said. Short relief as per the GFS, but close enough to bring some rain by July 2nd-3rd. After that period, no significant development is expected. Definitely something to keep an eye on
0 likes   
Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#6 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 26, 2012 7:34 am

Convection this morning appears to be increasing and it appears to have a developing circ. despite the rather stable air im surprised even that much convection has developed.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#7 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 26, 2012 7:51 am

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
TexasF6
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 788
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:33 pm
Location: Austin, TX

Re: Strong Tropical wave SW of Cape Verde islands.

#8 Postby TexasF6 » Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:22 am

I noticed this wave the other day, it is remarkably strong for so early in the season, but the caribbean looks a bit hostile in terms of shear. Perhaps a relaxtion ensues and it has a shot Aric?
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#9 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:05 am

yeah it may find its stop. but right now its not doing bad. Convection is slowly increasing . clearly have low and mid level rotation and vorticity is increasing.

TPW shows this nicely starting to wrap up and it does have a pretty decent moisture envelope with it.

Image
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3644
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#10 Postby drezee » Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:25 am

Pretty sharp wave axis

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41026
0 likes   
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2134
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: Strong Tropical wave SW of Cape Verde islands.

#11 Postby Steve H. » Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:51 am

This wave is looking pretty good as it approaches the central Atlantic. High amplitude and developing a circulation slowly. Could this be Bertha like in '96?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3644
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: Strong Tropical wave SW of Cape Verde islands.

#12 Postby drezee » Tue Jun 26, 2012 11:13 am

RAMMB moved the floater...They are taking a hard look at it...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 25
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

#13 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:01 pm

Loop. Moving NW?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rgb.html
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#14 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:27 pm

appears to be a circ developing. convection is limited but if it can become more established at the surface and convergence increases enough could see more convection build. very interesting for this time of year.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#15 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:35 pm

.TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 3N TO
11N...BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN THE ITCZ. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW AROUND THE WAVE APPEARS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM 8N TO 9N.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
climaguy
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 11
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2011 8:19 pm

Re:

#16 Postby climaguy » Tue Jun 26, 2012 3:33 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:appears to be a circ developing. convection is limited but if it can become more established at the surface and convergence increases enough could see more convection build. very interesting for this time of year.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2


Been keeping my eye on this one and agree that circ looks like its starting. And it appears that there's some decent convection immediately west of where I'm eyeballing the center of the circ.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5794
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: Strong Tropical wave SW of Cape Verde islands.

#17 Postby MGC » Tue Jun 26, 2012 3:54 pm

Looks like it has a pretty good spin for being this early.....MGC
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#18 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:41 pm

Here is a loop of this "little thing" approaching the 37/38 w...

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#19 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:44 pm

:uarrow: There's really an solid area of concentrated convection. Not extremely impressive but surely persisting. And persistance is always the key...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#20 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:46 pm

Another view, another loop :), enjoy :D
Image
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], Into The Fog, NDG, TheHurricaneGod and 40 guests