Strong Wave East of Windward Islands-(Is Invest 97L)

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Strong Wave East of Windward Islands-(Is Invest 97L)

#1 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:04 pm

This is not the time of year to look out that far but it is quite a strong wave for this time of year. Has a very solid low to mid level vorticity. not likely to develop out there but with such a sharp wave axis could do something later into the carrib. right now the environment is to stable but ssts are plenty warm. just thought it might be something to watch. The gfs does somewhat develop it or at least hold the vorticity together pretty well. which is also interesting for this time of year.


satellite loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html


gfs
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

cmc not much but vorticity
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

nogaps hangs onto something.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: Strong Tropical wave SW of Cape Verde islands.

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 25, 2012 4:39 pm

A little elongated but not looking bad the vorticity.

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#3 Postby Gustywind » Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:48 pm

Interresting thing so far to keep an eye on... as we're looking for a decent or strong twave to bring water in the Lesser Antilles because of the pretty severe drought who continue to hit directly most of the the carib islands.
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#4 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 25, 2012 11:22 pm

a little convection building with it tonight...
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Re: Strong Tropical wave SW of Cape Verde islands.

#5 Postby ouragans » Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:13 am

We really need this type of small wave, to bring rain down here as Gustywind said. Short relief as per the GFS, but close enough to bring some rain by July 2nd-3rd. After that period, no significant development is expected. Definitely something to keep an eye on
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#6 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 26, 2012 7:34 am

Convection this morning appears to be increasing and it appears to have a developing circ. despite the rather stable air im surprised even that much convection has developed.
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#7 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 26, 2012 7:51 am

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html
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Re: Strong Tropical wave SW of Cape Verde islands.

#8 Postby TexasF6 » Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:22 am

I noticed this wave the other day, it is remarkably strong for so early in the season, but the caribbean looks a bit hostile in terms of shear. Perhaps a relaxtion ensues and it has a shot Aric?
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#9 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:05 am

yeah it may find its stop. but right now its not doing bad. Convection is slowly increasing . clearly have low and mid level rotation and vorticity is increasing.

TPW shows this nicely starting to wrap up and it does have a pretty decent moisture envelope with it.

Image
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#10 Postby drezee » Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:25 am

Pretty sharp wave axis

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41026
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Re: Strong Tropical wave SW of Cape Verde islands.

#11 Postby Steve H. » Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:51 am

This wave is looking pretty good as it approaches the central Atlantic. High amplitude and developing a circulation slowly. Could this be Bertha like in '96?
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Re: Strong Tropical wave SW of Cape Verde islands.

#12 Postby drezee » Tue Jun 26, 2012 11:13 am

RAMMB moved the floater...They are taking a hard look at it...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp
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#13 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:01 pm

Loop. Moving NW?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rgb.html
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#14 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:27 pm

appears to be a circ developing. convection is limited but if it can become more established at the surface and convergence increases enough could see more convection build. very interesting for this time of year.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2
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#15 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:35 pm

.TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 3N TO
11N...BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN THE ITCZ. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW AROUND THE WAVE APPEARS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM 8N TO 9N.
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Re:

#16 Postby climaguy » Tue Jun 26, 2012 3:33 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:appears to be a circ developing. convection is limited but if it can become more established at the surface and convergence increases enough could see more convection build. very interesting for this time of year.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2


Been keeping my eye on this one and agree that circ looks like its starting. And it appears that there's some decent convection immediately west of where I'm eyeballing the center of the circ.
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Re: Strong Tropical wave SW of Cape Verde islands.

#17 Postby MGC » Tue Jun 26, 2012 3:54 pm

Looks like it has a pretty good spin for being this early.....MGC
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#18 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:41 pm

Here is a loop of this "little thing" approaching the 37/38 w...

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#19 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:44 pm

:uarrow: There's really an solid area of concentrated convection. Not extremely impressive but surely persisting. And persistance is always the key...
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#20 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:46 pm

Another view, another loop :), enjoy :D
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