Tropical Wave with low in East Atlantic (Is invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

Is prime time now and every wave that emerges West Africa has to be watched for potential to develop down the road. Of course some of them are weak and others are stronger and this one in Central Africa at a fairly low latitude looks like the ladder. I think some models have something in the Eastern Atlantic and this may be the one. Let's see what it does when it emerges the coast later this week.

Saved image

[HurricaneFan]

The Euro was one of them at 12Z yesterday.
It also seems to suggest that it would not make it across(although it is still early)

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS for several runs develops this into something interesting

[cycloneye]

12z GFS develops this wave.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS develops this wave.

http://oi50.tinypic.com/15sanfr.jpg

developes it rather quickly so more then likely it should recurve into the open atlantic.

edit..extreme long range recurves it near PR and the Bahamas.

[HurricaneFan]

That looks like a big recurve pattern on the 12Z GFS.Are the other models predicting the same pattern to develop?And for how long if so?

[cycloneye]

The global models in the latest runs continue to develop this one with the Euro revurving it and GFS moving it mainly westward for a good deal of time. Let's see when it makes the splash into the Atlantic how it does.

[ROCK]

been watching this one...models are all over it..even the NOGAPS....

[Hurricane Alexis]

The GFS has it almost over Miami towards the end of the run. Of course this will change.

[somethingfunny]

GFS consistently making this wave a powerful hurricane by the end of two weeks - location undecided. Euro recurved it MUCH sooner, and we'll see what the 0z Euro shows soon. Edit: 0z Euro is farther west.

6z GFS




12z GFS




18z GFS




0z GFS




12z Euro




Edit for 0z Euro:

[cycloneye]

Here is the saved image from Tuesday morning where it shows the circulation at low latitud but not a lot of convection at this time. Is moving slowly westward as you can see the pic from yesterday at the first post to todays position.

[cycloneye]

Is now Pouch 25L. Maybe it merges with the pouch 24L ahead and forms into a very organized system. Let's see what occurs in the next few days with these players.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2012/P25L.html

[HurricaneFan]

But isn't P23L a good bit to the WSW than what is shown in that image?(there is another thread about this Wave now)

[cycloneye]

GFS really develops this pouch and tracks it torwards the Caribbean but later it goes up to Bahamas and just off East Coast of U.S. This is at 288 hours when it almost hits Puerto Rico.

[HurricaneFan]

Although it is still early,it looks like there is no consistency or agreement on whether this will recurve or make it to the Islands or even a Caribbean cruiser,is that so?

[cycloneye]

Although it is still early,it looks like there is no consistency or agreement on whether this will recurve or make it to the Islands or even a Caribbean cruiser,is that so?

You are right. Is still early to say what kind of track this is going to take. We have to wait until it emerges West Africa,to see if it organizes and see how are the big players doing in the Atlantic (Troughs and Ridges) to see how is it going to track.

[cycloneye]

Saved image of West Africa at 00:30 UTC.

[cycloneye]

Dr Masters brief take today on the next CV development.

GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a new tropical wave due to move off the coast of Africa on Friday will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. It's too early to tell if this system might threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.

[somethingfunny]

What a strange looking upper level feature this is that grabs hold of this system and pulls it into a recurve on the 12z GFS:



I suspect that the system won't develop as quickly as the global models are suggesting... based on the hostile trends in the MDR this season.

[cycloneye]

What a strange looking upper level feature this is that grabs hold of this system and pulls it into a recurve on the 12z GFS:

http://i.imgur.com/l9Fqz.gif

I suspect that the system won't develop as quickly as the global models are suggesting... based on the hostile trends in the MDR this season.

Yeah,a quick developer in that run recurves more fast. But past runs had it much more weak moving west reaching or brushing the northern Lesser Antilles.