Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 92L)

[colbroe]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
14N23W TO 4N24W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 23W-26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS.

[Caribwxgirl]

Yeah I was just looking at that and wondered if there was a thread on it here. Well let's wait and see what comes of it next few days to next week.

[Frank2]

Yes, you can see the spin when it moved off Africa over the past 24 hours - it's about 5 degrees further south than former 91L, so we'll see what happens...

Frank

[LarryWx]

Yeah I was just looking at that and wondered if there was a thread on it here. Well let's wait and see what comes of it next few days to next week.

It isn't an invest yet...so no thread for it, yet. Both the 12Z Euro and the 12Z GFS take it largely westward til ~50-55W and then sharply recurve it underneath Nadine to be.

[colbroe]

A tropical wave is analyzed from the Cape Verde Islands near
15n25w to 3n25w moving W 10-15 kt. Wave axis lies ahead of a
surge of moderate moisture values on total precipitable water
imagery...with broad mid level cyclonic rotation along the wave
axis noted on satellite imagery cloud pattern. Scattered weak
convection is within 130 nm on either side of the wave axis

[colbroe]

SYNOPSIS 2012091112

P27L
11N, 22W
700 hPa



ECMWF: As opposed to previous forecasts, now ECMWF doesn't even have a peak in the OW. Instead, OW just steadily decreases until the pouch is dissipated after 72 hours.

GFS: Twelve hours ago, GFS was the only model to track a pouch all the way to 120 hours. Now, GFS also dissipates it sooner, not getting beyond 96 hours.

UKMET: Straight westward track. Weak pouch becomes weaker after 72 hours, which is when it loses its pouch CL/trough intersection.

NOGAPS: Twelve hours ago, NOGAPS dissipated P27L after 48 hours. Now, it is lost after 36 hours, which is a consistent story.

HWRF-GEN: Consistent story with a primarily westward track and a dissipating pouch. Only a weakening OW max after 72 hours, which I then don't track.


ECMWF -9.3 v700 72h
GFS -8.6 v700 96h
UKMET -10.0 v700 72h
NOGAPS -9.3 v700 36h
HWGEN -9.1 v700 72h

[Caribwxgirl]

Yeah I was just looking at that and wondered if there was a thread on it here. Well let's wait and see what comes of it next few days to next week.

It isn't an invest yet...so no thread for it, yet. Both the 12Z Euro and the 12Z GFS take it largely westward til ~50-55W and then sharply recurve it underneath Nadine to be.

Hmm yeah I know that I meant a thread in talking tropics Like this here

[colbroe]

8am

TROPICAL WAVE IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
14N31W TO 5N25W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH A SWATH OF DRIER AIR
UNDERCUTTING THE WAVE NEAR 8N AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE N OF
8N.

[colbroe]

2pm

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN
28W AND 33W.

[MGC]

Some good spin to it...but, it is moisture starved. Something to keep an eye on though.....MGC

[colbroe]

TROPICAL WAVE IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
14N38W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 8N34W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 33W-41W.

[Gustywind]

This low is pretty south and at least at 34/35W. We should keep an eye on this one. That's always suspicious in this area at this time of the year i mean the peak of the hurricane season.

[colbroe]

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38w to the south of
14n...moving westward 15 to 20 knots during the last 24 hours.
Broken to overcast multi layered clouds and widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong convective precipitation cover
the Atlantic Ocean from 9n to 14n between 36w and 44w.

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 15N43W ALONG A 1012 MB LOW
LEVEL CENTER NEAR 10N41W TO 7N38W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS SYSTEM
IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE VALUES ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN DRY
SAHARAN AIR ALOFT LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE
CENTER. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS N OF
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 140543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE EXTENDING FROM
14N44W THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 9N41W TO 7N40W MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN
41W-48W.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
14N45W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 9N43W TO 7N42W MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 43W-48W.

[chrisjslucia]

As this seems to be a year for weird and wonderful storm tracks, this model of Pouch 27 is certainly up there. Gusty, this one will capture your imagination!



Other models are showing this dissipate in a 72 hour period.

[Extratropical94]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

As this seems to be a year for weird and wonderful storm tracks, this model of Pouch 27 is certainly up there. Gusty, this one will capture your imagination!



Other models are showing this dissipate in a 72 hour period.

Thanks for this graphic my friend
yeah a strange capture if this only that i can sleep zen But reality is other thing especially when we're in the peak of the hurricane season with impressive fair dry and hot weather... Let's wait and see what could happens with this feature during the next couple of 24/48h.

[tolakram]

I believe this is the same area.



1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN