Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season

[cycloneye]

This thread is made to gather the outlooks by the different agencies and private entities and not have different threads for every expert(s) and for the members to make comments about what the experts are forecasting. All of the outlooks of the 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane season will be posted at the first post of thread. First salvo was released by TSR. I dont think the December forecasts are of value but anyway they can offer some guidance in terms of the factors they see as important.

TSR

December forecast: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ec2013.pdf --- 15/8/3

April forecast: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... pr2013.pdf --- 15/8/3

May Preseason forecast: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... on2013.pdf --- 15/8/3

June forecast: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... un2013.pdf --- 16/8/4

July forecast: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ul2013.pdf --- 15/7/3

August forecast: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ug2013.pdf --- 15/7/3

CSU

December forecast: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ec2012.pdf --- No numbers given

April forecast: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... pr2013.pdf --- 18/9/4

June forecast: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2013.pdf --- 18/9/4

August update: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... ug2013.pdf --- 18/8/3

First Two Week Forecast from 2-15 of August --- http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Inc ... 2_2013.pdf --- Below average activity

Two Week Forecast from 16-29 of August --- http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Inc ... 6_2013.pdf --- Above average activity

Two Week Forecast from 30 of August to 12 of September --- http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Incl ... 0_2013.pdf --- Average activity

Two Week Forecast from September 13 thru 26 --- http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Incl ... 3_2013.pdf --- Average activity

Two Week Forecast from September 27 thru October 10 --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/In ... 7_2013.pdf --- Below Average activity

October/November forecast --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/In ... recast.pdf --- Above Average activity

Verification of 2013 season --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ov2013.pdf

Joe Bastardi

December outlook: http://i.imgur.com/EDC3wzr.jpg --- Between 13-17 named storms

Late March forecast: http://www.weatherbell.com/2013-Hurrica ... n-Forecast --- 16/12/5

NOAA

May forecast: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/ --- 13-20 Named Storms / 7-11 Hurricanes / 3-6 Major Hurricanes

August forecast: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml --- 13-19 Named Storms / 6-9 Hurricanes / 3-5 Major Hurricanes

NOAA Statement about 2013 forecast --- http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... eason.html

https://www.facebook.com/US.NOAA.Nation ... ?ref=br_tf

The Weather Channel

April forecast: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hur ... l-20130408 --- 16/9/5

UKMO

2013 Forecast: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... lantic2013 --- Between 10-18 named storms

FSU

2013 forecast: http://coaps.fsu.edu/hurricanes --- Between 12-17 named storms

Accuweather

First forecast for season: http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/video?id=90 ... id=9078213 --- 16/8/4

May forecast: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... 3/12116274 --- 16/8/4

ImpactWeather

Late March forecast: http://courantblogs.com/ct-insurance/ea ... or-storms/ --- (18/8/4) July Update: 17/8/4

NC State University

April forecast: http://cfdl.meas.ncsu.edu/research/TCoutlook_2013.pdf --- 13-17 named storms

StormW forecasts

January forecast: http://stormw.com/ --- Between 14-15 named storms

March North Atlantic Tropical Synopsis --- http://stormw.com/

Levi Cowan

Mid March Tropical Tidbit --- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... an-normal/ --- Between 14-16 named storms

April analysis of 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season --- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... e-season//

Mid-May video analysis of 2013 North Atlantic and EPAC seasons --- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... c-be-next/

Mid June analysis of rest of North Atlantic season --- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... he-season/



Crown Weather Services

Late March first forecast --- https://www.facebook.com/crownweatherservices --- 15/10/4

Final forecast--- http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=7332 --- 16/9/5

Mid-May updated discussion --- http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7358


Hurricanealley forecast --- http://www.hurricanealley.net/FORECASTS ... CSTMAP.jpg --- Landfall Probabilities --- No numbers given


Allan Huffman

http://www.examiner.com/article/summer- ... 013-part-1

http://www.examiner.com/slideshow/summe ... e=61679851 May forecast --- 17/9/3


Larry Cosgrove --- http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/9215/cogrove2013.jpg --- 17/8/4


HurricaneCity --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLw0vWx1 ... e=youtu.be --- Landfall forecast -No numbers given

Penn State May forecast --- http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/resear ... e2013.html --- 16 named storms

[WeatherEmperor]

Although I dont normally pay attention to December forecasts, I am curious to what JB thinks of next year considering we may have neutral or slightly cool enso conditions

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[cycloneye]

Although I dont normally pay attention to December forecasts, I am curious to what JB thinks of next year considering we may have neutral or slightly cool enso conditions

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

If I recall,he does his first forecast around March.

[cycloneye]

CSU Dr's Klotzbach/Gray December forecast is up at first post. They are counting mainly on the ENSO forecasts in the next few months to then have a better idea about how active or not the season will be.

[Hurricane Jed]

That prediction by the CSU intrigues me. 40% for above-normal activity and no El Nino and 35% for above-normal and a significant El Nino. A lot of people were pegging the 2012 season to be the one that would be punched by El Nino. Given how they expect it to be neutral through the winter and spring. I'm leaning more toward the 40% scenario, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 35% scenario played out.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The first forecast from Colorado State University should be interesting. It's already looking like the 2013 season will be well above average. We've got warming sea surface temperatures and below average trade winds in the east and central Atlantic because of a negative NAO, an enhanced monsoon across Africa because of favorable westerly winds across the east Atlantic, and below average wind shear. Vertical instability is still lacking, however. If we get a return of that by the start of next hurricane season, I think we can get the old MDR back (strong, long-lived hurricanes).

[cycloneye]

If anyone knows of other private firms that do forecasts apart of the already listed at the first post,dont hesitate to post them and I will add to the list.

Vertical instability is still lacking, however. If we get a return of that by the start of next hurricane season, I think we can get the old MDR back (strong, long-lived hurricanes).

Agree 100% TX13. There has been a decrease of Caribbean cruisers after 2005 as the MDR has mantained mainly dry in the mid levels. Let's see what occurs with the inestability or lack of in 2013.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If anyone knows of other private firms that do forecasts apart of the already listed at the first post,dont hesitate to post them and I will add to the list.

Vertical instability is still lacking, however. If we get a return of that by the start of next hurricane season, I think we can get the old MDR back (strong, long-lived hurricanes).

Agree 100% TX13. There has been a decrease of Caribbean cruisers after 2005 as the MDR has mantained mainly dry in the mid levels. Let's see what occurs with the inestability or lack of in 2013.

Met Office (UKMO), Weather Services International (a.k.a The Weather Channel), and Florida State University.

[gigabite]

I use an analog derived from celestial navigation from USNO. The correlation was 84% with a 1.583 multiplier in 2012. 2013 with a 1.9 multiplier I have an 11 hurricanes. I guess I will be back on the low side of the cluster in next years poll.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Does this thread count for non-expert forecasts too or does there need to be another thread for that?

[cycloneye]

Does this thread count for non-expert forecasts too or does there need to be another thread for that?

No,this is only for the guru people only. The non experts will have their say after April 1rst when the 2013 poll opens.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Does this thread count for non-expert forecasts too or does there need to be another thread for that?

No,this is only for the guru people only. The non experts will have their say after April 1rst when the 2013 poll opens.

Yeah, but that's not a discussion. That's just a collection of posts of numbers.

[Florida1118]

Does this thread count for non-expert forecasts too or does there need to be another thread for that?

No,this is only for the guru people only. The non experts will have their say after April 1rst when the 2013 poll opens.

Yeah, but that's not a discussion. That's just a collection of posts of numbers.

There's nothing to say you can't start your own thread for personal forecasts

[cycloneye]

Does this thread count for non-expert forecasts too or does there need to be another thread for that?

No,this is only for the guru people only. The non experts will have their say after April 1rst when the 2013 poll opens.

Yeah, but that's not a discussion. That's just a collection of posts of numbers.

But the members can discuss here about what the different forecasts are saying. Is the first time in S2K that we unite all the expert forecasts in one thread to not have a thread for every private or goverment entity. And any member can post personal forecasts apart from the S2K poll.

[cycloneye]

Accuweather and Crown Weather were added to the list of goverment and private entities at first post. If anyone knows of more private firms,post them and I will add to list. TX13,does Dr Jeff Masters do forecasts with numbers?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Accuweather and Crown Weather were added to the list of goverment and private entities at first post. If anyone knows of more private firms,post them and I will add to list. TX13,does Dr Jeff Masters do forecasts with numbers?

No.

[cycloneye]

I use an analog derived from celestial navigation from USNO. The correlation was 84% with a 1.583 multiplier in 2012. 2013 with a 1.9 multiplier I have an 11 hurricanes. I guess I will be back on the low side of the cluster in next years poll.

In simple terms,what does all of that mean?

[Cyclenall]

Was there another website that released numbers by the name of HurricaneAlley? I don't know much about them but I think something named that did release forecast numbers.

Vertical instability is still lacking, however. If we get a return of that by the start of next hurricane season, I think we can get the old MDR back (strong, long-lived hurricanes).

Its annoying how this is now a multi-year problem and there has been given no explanation for why. It wasn't even mentioned in the CSU report (up to page 21 at least) yet its having an effect on the season's performance. If it returns with the very low background pressures then watch out, everything would be lined up for my prediction of the worst hurricane season ever for the United States. Further, if there is strong and anomalous ridging over eastern North America during August to mid-October, that will further exacerbate the threat like in 2004 and 2005. For 7 hurricane seasons now generally its been "troughy" according to NCEP analysis and the CSU during those months and when it flips and it will, recurving systems will be much less likely and combined with mentioned above, the SWHTF.

Does this thread count for non-expert forecasts too or does there need to be another thread for that?

No,this is only for the guru people only. The non experts will have their say after April 1rst when the 2013 poll opens.

Yeah, but that's not a discussion. That's just a collection of posts of numbers.

I post my notes with the numbers during the Spring and a discussion is alright. Only me and a couple others do that though.

Back to the CSU forecast without numbers, I don't agree with the % for a positive AMO and a El Nino being that high (35%) for 2013. I think over 50% for neutral conditions and a bit higher for La Nina then for El Nino. Under section 6 on Page 16, they talk about how lucky the US has been in the past 7 years with no major hurricane landfalls. In the paragraphs they're basically describing what I call Equilibrium in this ongoing drought of major hurricane landfalls. They do analysis on the current era of Atlantic activity excluding the 2004-2005 seasons and find amazing statistics. This further drives the point home about all the activity being concentrated at once because even before 2004 from 1995 onwards there has only been a few major hurricane landfalls (in the 90s)! That means since 2000, there hasn't been a season with a major landfall on the US aside from the 2004-2005 seasons!! They attribute to what was mentioned above being the troughy stuff happening during August-September. This quote from the report:

This string of good luck cannot be expected to continue in the future...This string of good luck has been even more remarkable for the Florida Peninsula...

Basically stating the rubber band is going to snap back but they fall short of stating it will be a deluge of major landfalls because that part is un-scientific. No reasoning can be given for why it would happen all at once after years without it happening even once.

[brunota2003]

I think this thread should be turned into the non-expert discussions one:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=114370

And perhaps added to the top list, so people know where to go?

[cycloneye]

I think this thread should be turned into the non-expert discussions one:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=114370

And perhaps added to the top list, so people know where to go?

Good suggestion my friend. I think Tx13 made that thread for his personal forecast and analysis but the peeps can continue there.