Weak Surface Low in Western GOM - Yellow-20% (Is 94L)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ROCK]

about time....I said at least a 0% yesterday when it looked better over water...

[perk]

Rock this may end up being the rain we need.

[cycloneye]

I wonder if NHC puts another circle in the next TWO'S to the NW Caribbean area or move this one to the NW Caribbean,or are two separated features.

[BigB0882]

Whether this develops or not, where is it heading? I am heading to my parents place out in Crockett, TX this weekend and hope it is not a rain out, although I think they could use the rain.

[NDG]

My guess is that they will not highlight the area over the NW Caribbean/western Cuba where this evening a MLC circulation is noticed on satellite loop.
Pressures are high in that area and is east of the surface trough which is over the Yucatan Peninsula extending NNE towards the FL Panhandle.
The area to watch over the next couple of days is the BOC.

[NDG]

18z NCEP ensembles give it a high chance for development.

[SFLcane]

Another sloppy system possibly here. Main threat heavy rains

[Dean4Storms]

18z NCEP ensembles give it a high chance for development.

If that Atlantic Ridge doesn't push as far west as this indicates the tracks could shift a bit further eastward.





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

If the ridge holds strong over FL whatever sets up could just go into MX. if a LLC does work down it has the hottest water in the ATL to work with...light shear also so maybe we wont have center relocations......reminds me of Humberto to be honest.

[hurricanekid416]

This may be a clone of Cindy in 2005

[LaBreeze]

18z NCEP ensembles give it a high chance for development.

If that Atlantic Ridge doesn't push as far west as this indicates the tracks could shift a bit further eastward.





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dean, this is what a local met was speaking about tonight in his forecast. He mentioned that the models are backing off of the amount of rainfall for the northwestern Gulf Coast and putting more of it from SE LA well into Florida. Things can change and usually do, though, right?

[ROCK]

those ensembles match the NAVGEM runs for the past 3 runs in a row.....

the 00Z NAVGEM just came out..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

at 120hr the NAVGEM hit Galveston with a 1000MB TS.....been pretty consistant the last 3 runs..just sayin

it originates just where I have pegged a MLC at 20N 92W...might poof tonight though....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[chaser1]

Even the latest 0Z Nogaps still doesnt have the Gulf feature "that" wound up prior to E. Texas coast landfall. I'm not sure that it'll maintain a good vertical core in time to tighten up to a TS. At least some good rains though. I'd still bet against it for reaching depression. Levi Cohen's video is once again well put together and well thought out. Basically the three near to mid term systems in play are the current Gulf trough, an eventual upper level low that might work its way down to the surface as it approaches Florida in about a week, and perhaps the first significant wave from the ITCZ that might be approaching the Lessor Antilles in 7-10 days.

So, does the next Tropical Depression form West of 80, between 60 - 80W, or between 40 - 60W??? I think i'll hang my hat on between 40W - 60W which would then likely mean no new depressions for at least 7 days.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Still Near 10%.

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY COULD BECOME
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[LaBreeze]

at 120hr the NAVGEM hit Galveston with a 1000MB TS.....been pretty consistant the last 3 runs..just sayin

it originates just where I have pegged a MLC at 20N 92W...might poof tonight though....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Rock, just wondering how much faith you have in NAVGEM at 120hr? Thanks in advance.

[Extratropical94]

Stays at 10%

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[tolakram]

Here's a save of the GFS at 108 hours out.



Here's the current shear tendency map.



I see a very sheared area of low pressure creeping north, and I think the big question is how much moisture will it have to work with.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

They expanded the yellow circle to include the NW Caribbean and part of GOM.