Flash in pan? SW of Cape Verde (Is Invest 95L)

[beoumont]

6z July 5

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N28W TO 9N28W MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER SURROUNDS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS. HOWEVER...A CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 24W-28W.

[Gustywind]

Do the models do something with it or not? Any infos about that Cycloneye?

[cycloneye]

Do the models do something with it or not? Any infos about that Cycloneye?

The models don't develop this wave but it shows well as it reaches the Lesser Antilles by next Wednesday timeframe.

[Gustywind]

Do the models do something with it or not? Any infos about that Cycloneye?

The models don't develop this wave but it shows well as it reaches the Lesser Antilles by next Wednesday timeframe.

Ok thanks to you .

[cycloneye]

The 12z surface analysis has a weak low added to wave.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N30W TO 22N30W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF INCREASED DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 12N-
22N BETWEEN 26W-31W. SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WAVE...WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AXIS. HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH...OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DUST...A CLUSTER OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N26W. THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM
04N-08N BETWEEN 25W-33W.

[Gustywind]

Is that the first twave of the season who have a low attach with it?

[cycloneye]

Is that the first twave of the season who have a low attach with it?

I think I have seen a handfull with very weak lows but of course there was Invest 92L in early June that was a very organized wave in the Central Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Wave looks good at this time.

[Gustywind]

Is that the first twave of the season who have a low attach with it?

I think I have seen a handfull with very weak lows but of course there was Invest 92L in early June that was a very organized wave in the Central Atlantic.

Yeah, you're right. That's exact concerning 92L. Let's if this one could gain a more pronounced structure, even if we're a bit far away from something who can acquiring an Invest status for the moment.

[Aric Dunn]

Wave looks good at this time.

http://oi43.tinypic.com/30j6uko.jpg

yeah appears to have circ with it and somewhat free of itcz. if it can stay low enough latitude till it can become more established it may may have a chance.

actually looking pretty good. clear rotation and some low level structure. if a little more convection builds with it they may make it an invest tomorrow.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

[Gustywind]

Wave looks good at this time.

http://oi43.tinypic.com/30j6uko.jpg

yeah appears to have circ with it and somewhat free of itcz. if it can stay low enough latitude till it can become more established it may may have a chance.

Interresting point Aric. You said a chance, but a chance of being an Invest or a TD? When this could be a possible Invest in your opinion?

[Hurricaneman]

I have a bad feeling this is a taste of things to come the next 3 months

['CaneFreak]

Current 850 mb vorticity (lower right hand corner around 30 W)

Wave looks good at this time.

http://oi43.tinypic.com/30j6uko.jpg

yeah appears to have circ with it and somewhat free of itcz. if it can stay low enough latitude till it can become more established it may may have a chance.

actually looking pretty good. clear rotation and some low level structure. if a little more convection builds with it they may make it an invest tomorrow.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

[Aric Dunn]

first 3 images. clearly there is a circ convection a little organized in association with it. however its fairly small and low latitude. It should begin to gain latitude soon. Also though it could be attached to the itcz it does not appear to be just a itcz swirl. if a little more convection can build probably see a invest in about 24hr.


Also if anyone can keep saving the images and add to this till the sun goes down that would be great.

[gatorcane]

The main reason why I think the models do not develop this wave is because of all the SAL out there. You can see the murky grey surrounding this wave and to the north. This SAL surge is moving west in tandem with this wave:

[Alyono]

looks very well organized.

Of course, it is not likely to last long, however

[cycloneye]

18z surface analysis continues with the low pressure now down from 1014 mbs to 1011 mbs.

[cycloneye]

10%

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.