Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean/Yucatan (Is Invest 95L)

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cycloneye
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Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean/Yucatan (Is Invest 95L)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:16 am

Well folks,is the time of the season to watch all the waves that roll out of Africa. Let's see if this one gets a name down the road.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P20L.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013.html

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Re: Pouch 20L inside Africa

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 07, 2013 5:25 pm

Here is a view of West Africa that shows the pouch well.

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Re: Pouch 20L inside Africa

#3 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 07, 2013 6:19 pm

Until the GFS/Euro show a decent closed low I won't believe it will be more than another wave... :D
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Re: Pouch 20L inside Africa

#4 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 07, 2013 7:05 pm

Blown Away wrote:Until the GFS/Euro show a decent closed low I won't believe it will be more than another wave... :D



the way things are going with these 2 models they are not going to show anything this year..... :D
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#5 Postby alienstorm » Thu Aug 08, 2013 8:19 pm

Good size cluster coming off Africa and you can clearly see some rotation on the one inside Africa

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... ERNAFRICA/
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Re:

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 08, 2013 8:28 pm

alienstorm wrote:Good size cluster coming off Africa and you can clearly see some rotation on the one inside Africa

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... ERNAFRICA/


Let's see how this pouch does as soon it hits the water on Friday.
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#7 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 08, 2013 8:32 pm

12Z UKMET shows this pouch as a large area of convection with a broad area of low pressure over the Cape Verde islands at 72 hours.

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Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 08, 2013 8:34 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#8 Postby ninel conde » Thu Aug 08, 2013 8:32 pm

looks nice tonight.
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#9 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 08, 2013 8:58 pm

Some colors showing up near the Cape Verde islands on the 18Z Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Graphic:

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Re: Pouch 20L inside Africa

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 08, 2013 9:14 pm

I am eagered to see how it reacts when it hits a new environment in the next 12-24 hours.

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Re: Pouch 20L inside Africa

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 08, 2013 9:29 pm

Nothing important so far on ASCAT. Pass was made at 6:07 PM EDT.

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Re: Pouch 20L about to emerge West Africa

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 09, 2013 6:50 am

Still no mention of this pouch.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: Pouch 20L about to emerge West Africa

#13 Postby MGC » Fri Aug 09, 2013 10:15 am

Looking at the latest Meteosat WV image, it appears that the eastern Atlantic has much more moist environment. Something to keep an eye on as it crosses the pond.....MGC
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Re: Pouch 20L about to emerge West Africa

#14 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 09, 2013 11:11 am

It's still over Africa, which is why NHC isn't mentioning it yet. But it's poised to move offshore around 15N and move through the Cape Verde Islands. That's VERY far north. Not likely to move into the Caribbean (if it was to develop) starting from that latitude.
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Re: Pouch 20L about to emerge West Africa

#15 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 09, 2013 11:21 am

:uarrow: I am confused I thought it already splashed down...I didnt think we were talking about the feature at 15N?

to be honest I see nothing up around 15N...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html
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Re: Pouch 20L about to emerge West Africa

#16 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 09, 2013 11:26 am

ROCK wrote::uarrow: I am confused I thought it already splashed down...I didnt think we were talking about the feature at 15N?

to be honest I see nothing up around 15N...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html


it is, but there is no convection around the center
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Re: Pouch 20L about to emerge West Africa

#17 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 09, 2013 11:30 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
ROCK wrote::uarrow: I am confused I thought it already splashed down...I didnt think we were talking about the feature at 15N?

to be honest I see nothing up around 15N...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html


it is, but there is no convection around the center


all the convection is around 10N or below...not sure how its going to survive without convection.
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Re: Pouch 20L about to emerge West Africa

#18 Postby 'CaneFreak » Fri Aug 09, 2013 11:34 am

The vorticity will likely re-align itself further south with the deepest convection. The easterly jet will likely promote this shift south as well.

ROCK wrote:all the convection is around 10N or below...not sure how its going to survive without convection.
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Re: Pouch 20L about to emerge West Africa

#19 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 09, 2013 11:39 am

'CaneFreak wrote:The vorticity will likely re-align itself further south with the deepest convection. The easterly jet will likely promote this shift south as well.

ROCK wrote:all the convection is around 10N or below...not sure how its going to survive without convection.


The GFS has it moving SW towards the convection so your idea is sound and could take place the next few days
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Re: Pouch 20L about to emerge West Africa

#20 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 09, 2013 11:44 am

'CaneFreak wrote:The vorticity will likely re-align itself further south with the deepest convection. The easterly jet will likely promote this shift south as well.

ROCK wrote:all the convection is around 10N or below...not sure how its going to survive without convection.



:uarrow: agree..
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