Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[mpic]

Been hearing some hinting of it on tv. What factors are in the equation?

['CaneFreak]

This is being discussed in the global models thread.

[cycloneye]

This is being discussed in the global models thread.

Any member can make a thread about this area or any area of the basin for that matter as he did in this case for GOM. Now the model runs related to this area may be posted here instead of the Global Models thread.

['CaneFreak]

I know. I was simply just telling him that we were discussing this threat in a different thread.

This is being discussed in the global models thread.

Any member can make a thread about this area or any area of the basin for that matter as he did in this case for GOM. Now the model runs related to this area may be posted here instead of the Global Models thread.

[Dean4Storms]

That ULL over the SE GOM sure did fire up over the center late this afternoon.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[BigB0882]

I think that what some of the models are seeing comes off of South America. Not sure on the exact timeline but that will be the place to look, wouldn't it? Or is something supposed to originate in the GOM as well?

[Rgv20]

I'm assuming this thread is Tropical Disturbance the NAVGEM and GFS has been showing..

Tonight's 0zGFS and 0zNAVGEM continue to hint at a possible SW GOM/BOC TC as we head until next weekend..


0zNAVGEM forecast valid for August 17 Saturday Morning.


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0zGFS forecast valid for August 17 Saturday Morning.


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[Dean4Storms]

0z GGEM closing off a low at 850mb in the SW Gulf at 150hrs. Very little development from there as it scoots west into Mexico.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS shows low in BOC but goes to Mexico.

[cycloneye]

To clarify,the area NHC has with 10% is not the one this topic is about as is from an area some models develop in a week. So if anyone wants to make a thread for the Western GOM area go ahead.

[ronjon]

Interesting, 06z NAVGEM now brings the cyclone further north up toward the La/Miss coast at the end of its run.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=nvg_atlantic&dtg=2013081006&prod=sfc10m&tau=000&set=All

[gatorcane]

Well due to nothing else looking promising for the next 7-10 days, thought we should get a topic started on this. I circled the area of interest below. Some models have shown possible development as this area gets into the Western Caribbean or near the Yucatan 5 or so days from now:

[gatorcane]

I went ahead and started a new topic for the system a week from now to avoid confusion with this thread.

[cycloneye]

I went ahead and started a new topic for the system a week from now to avoid confusion with this thread.

Well,I think your new thread is about this thread has as topic for what the models have 7-10 days from now. I thought that new one would be for the Western GOM 10% area.

[gatorcane]

I went ahead and started a new topic for the system a week from now to avoid confusion with this thread.

Well,I think your new thread is about this thread has as topic for what the models have 7-10 days from now. I thought that new one would be for the Western GOM 10% area.

Oh I see what you mean. Guess I confused things even more. If you want to remove the thread I just started, I am fine with that as it looks like the week from now system is being discussed in this thread.

[cycloneye]

I went ahead and started a new topic for the system a week from now to avoid confusion with this thread.

I merged the thread you made with this one. Anyone wants to make a thread for the WGOM 10% to avoid confusion?

[gatorcane]

Levi Cowan's take on development potential:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... of-mexico/

['CaneFreak]

10 % area will likely move into MX tomorrow. Not threadworthy in my opinion.

I merged the thread you made with this one. Anyone wants to make a thread for the WGOM 10% to avoid confusion?

[cycloneye]

Hi mpic. To let you know that I modified the title of your thread from "Any thoughts on the chances of a homegrown in the Gulf?" to "Any thoughts on chances of homegrown in the Gulf next week?" The small change was made as NHC is watching an area in the Western GOM that has a 10% chance of developing that will go inland to Mexico on Sunday and your topic is about what the models are showing about possible development late next week. Is possible that more small changes to title may be needed depending how the models continue to show it and how NHC talks about it if it does so.

[Dean4Storms]

That blow up of Convection NW of the Keys in the SE GOM got my attention this morning.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes