Tropical Wave just off African Coast (Is Invest 94L)

[cycloneye]

Is a large complex area that will emerge Africa in 2-3 days. Lat's see in what latitude a low pressure establishes and that is important because the more south it emerges the less hostil conditions it gets down the road. The models hint on development of this area.

[alienstorm]

Showing development north of the Cape Verde islands and going out to sea.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a massive area.

I would think it could develop now that we are in the prime of the Cape Verde season plus has some model support.

[galaxy401]

Looks like something in the WPAC! Got to see how this disturbance will do.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Wow. It really looks like a good candidate!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/gglcontent/natl.gif

[angelwing]

Here we go...about time something started

[CrazyC83]

This one looks like it could be the real deal. Erin was kind of a bonus - it had only sparse model support yet developed anyway.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Looks like this could be our first monster of the season, if some of the models are correct.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at shear and air maps, I could see this developing BEFORE Cape Verde...

[cycloneye]

It would be interesting to have some surface observations from those countries to see what is going on.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It would be interesting to have some surface observations from those countries to see what is going on.

Sadly, Western Africa is a void of real time surface data.

[ouragans]

It would be interesting to have some surface observations from those countries to see what is going on.

Sadly, Western Africa is a void of real time surface data.

yes but you can read local media articles regarding heavy rainfalls. let me work on this

[Gustywind]

It would be interesting to have some surface observations from those countries to see what is going on.

Sadly, Western Africa is a void of real time surface data.

yes but you can read local media articles regarding heavy rainfalls. let me work on this

Hi Ouragans. That will be a great job on what you're saying! What about this area of disturbed weather? Do you think that this feature could have an optimistic trip during the next couple of days?
Thanks.

[cycloneye]

I found information from Gambia about torrential rains that caused flooding. This was caused by wave that spawned Erin.

Torrential rain and flash flood have affected thousands of people in different communities across the Gambia, Coordinator of National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) Binta Sey Jadama said on Wednesday. According to the official, the torrential rain that lasted for more than 24 hours Monday through Tuesday night, has inundated several households, causing temporal displacement and the destruction of properties and foodstuff in the tiny West African nation. In Churchill's Town in the Greater Banjul area, roads were not accessible due to the heavy downpour. Vehicles, motor bicycles and pedestrians were swerved away by floods, but so far no death has been reported yet. The drainage system which was dug to mitigate flood was completely blocked and the main bridge toward the Tourism Development Area was also submerged, which halt the traffic for more than two hours. Rescue workers, including Red Cross, Police and officials of the National Road Authority (NRA), spent the rest of the day draining the water. In Upper River Region of the Gambia, the main river that divides the region into two parts was overflooded and ran into the market area in Basse, which affected many residents and vendors. According to the meteorological data, the heavy rain recorded unprecedented volume of 101.2 milliliters. In the past two years, flooding caused millions of dollars in losses in the Gambia and also reduced the earnings of many farmers in the country.

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?page ... -40517-GMB

[gatorcane]

Quite a blob...saved image

[ouragans]

you can read local media articles regarding heavy rainfalls. let me work on this

Hi Ouragans. That will be a great job on what you're saying! What about this area of disturbed weather? Do you think that this feature could have an optimistic trip during the next couple of days?
Thanks.

I'm somewhat disapointed because my sources are nearly empty of weather information, like if that was not a primary concern. The info I found was "heavy rain" during the latest election day. It matches cycloneye's timeframe

regarding this system itself, it should be the first "postcard" of the season, but I don't see it as a threat for NE Caribbean. It's too far north over W Africa

[alienstorm]

No model support on this one either takes it NW and disappear

[Gustywind]

you can read local media articles regarding heavy rainfalls. let me work on this

Hi Ouragans. That will be a great job on what you're saying! What about this area of disturbed weather? Do you think that this feature could have an optimistic trip during the next couple of days?
Thanks.

I'm somewhat disapointed because my sources are nearly empty of weather information, like if that was not a primary concern. The info I found was "heavy rain" during the latest election day. It matches cycloneye's timeframe

regarding this system itself, it should be the first "postcard" of the season, but I don't see it as a threat for NE Caribbean. It's too far north over W Africa

Thanks to you and your first thoughts. For my part, we should wait a bit and see if this thing could be or not a threat for the islanders of the EC. Let's wait and see.

[Hurricaneman]

If you look at the 18zGFS it shows this withering up in the central atlantic just like Erin is currently doing and Dorian and Chantal did but this could always be the one that makes it and causes chaos especially if the instability is higher than modeled for this

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Cainer]

Instability still way below normal in the tropical Atlantic, hovering around early June levels. Can't expect much more than a mid-grade tropical storm with such a stable environment persisting in the MDR.