Tropical Wave in BOC (Is Invest 99L)
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caneman
Tropical Wave in BOC (Is Invest 99L)
Not sure what this feature is tied to or if any model support but there is a nice blow up in the West Carib. We'll need to see if it can maintain itself. Thoughts on this??
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caneman
Re: Nice Blow Up in the Western Caribbean
Looking at the West Caribbean Satellite, the Caribbean and West Atlantic sure look juiced so maybe soon we'll get something soon.
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Re: Nice Blow Up in the Western Caribbean
Another 2013 wave flaring-up and trying to get us to bite IMO. Almost all of these prospects have been shear-induced.
It does have red IR though and might get over the hurdle. Who knows. Anything can happen during prime time. Especially in the west Caribbean.
It does have red IR though and might get over the hurdle. Who knows. Anything can happen during prime time. Especially in the west Caribbean.
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hurricanes1234
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Re: Nice Blow Up in the Western Caribbean
OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
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ninel conde
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i give it a better chance than 97. if it can get into the BOC it will find good conditions.
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hurricanes1234
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Re:
ninel conde wrote:i give it a better chance than 97. if it can get into the BOC it will find good conditions.
It might be able to develop into a weak and compact system like Fernand.
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ninel conde
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Re: Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:ninel conde wrote:i give it a better chance than 97. if it can get into the BOC it will find good conditions.
It might be able to develop into a weak and compact system like Fernand.
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very possible.
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cycloneye
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Re: Nice Blow Up in the Western Caribbean: 0%-20%
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
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ninel conde
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i think it will be the next storm.
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hurricanes1234
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Re: Nice Blow Up in the Western Caribbean: 0%-20%
What are the chances of this system becoming like Lorenzo 2007 or Stan 2005?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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ninel conde
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most likely will be weak if it develops. lots of land to deal with.
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Re: Re:
ROCK wrote:ninel conde wrote:most likely will be weak if it develops. lots of land to deal with.
Huh? The Boc rocks as far as developing systems. Might need to check guidance...
Agreed, the BOC develops systems for sure this season, but so close to land - almost sort of odd it seems.
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ninel conde
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Re: Re:
ROCK wrote:ninel conde wrote:most likely will be weak if it develops. lots of land to deal with.
Huh? The Boc rocks as far as developing systems. Might need to check guidance...
i said back in july the BOC was the place to be but it still has alot of land to deal with.
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tolakram
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Re: Re:
ninel conde wrote: i said back in july the BOC was the place to be but it still has alot of land to deal with.
What track is this expected to take? It has as much lad to deal with as every other storm that develops in the BOC.
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M a r k
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ninel conde
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Re: Re:
tolakram wrote:ninel conde wrote: i said back in july the BOC was the place to be but it still has alot of land to deal with.
What track is this expected to take? It has as much lad to deal with as every other storm that develops in the BOC.
not at all. if it goes over the northern tip of the yucatan less land, more water. south, more land, less water.
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galaxy401
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A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
BELIZE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUESDAY...WHERE SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BELIZE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUESDAY...WHERE SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Re: Re:
ROCK wrote:ninel conde wrote:most likely will be weak if it develops. lots of land to deal with.
Huh? The Boc rocks as far as developing systems. Might need to check guidance...
Rock any idea where this system may end up if it develops.
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Re: Nice Blow Up in the Western Caribbean: 0%-20%
I see a weak spin over the north Central Yucatan peninsula. You probably won't be able to see it in a few hours, after the daytime heating.
Conditions of do look favorable for something to develop in the BOC or western Gulf with the upper low diving SW over NE Mexico.
Conditions of do look favorable for something to develop in the BOC or western Gulf with the upper low diving SW over NE Mexico.
Last edited by tailgater on Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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